Eater Austin predicts 19 restaurants will earn a star.
https://austin.eater.com/2024/7/16/24199218/michelin-texas-austin-stars-predictions-2024
There are 21 restaurants in Chicago with a star, 24 in DC. I think expecting Austin to get 19 in year one, with a food scene that is much more homogenous and much less mature than dining in either Chicago and/or DC, is delusional.
They're predicting 8 local sushi/omakase restaurants will earn a star. And while Michelin seems to over-reward Japanese/sushi restaurants, I think Austin Omakases will be universally dinged a bit due to inability to source the freshest fish in Austin. For example, Chicago has only 2 Japanese/Omakase restaurants that earned a star, and they're similarly-located in the Central US away from access to the freshest salt-water fish. But we'll see, I guess.
I think the number of restaurants that earn starts will largely depend on how Michelin values modern barbecue restaurants. I could see anywhere from zero to five restaurants earn a star - Franklin, Interstellar, Leroy & Lewis, KG BBQ, and Distant Relatives (the last two because they may value the fusion of KG and the cultural/historical component of Distant Relatives' mission). I'd guess Franklin and Interstellar are most likely to earn a star. FWIW, Eater doesn't predict any bbq restaurant will earn a star...