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Storm the Field

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Everything posted by Storm the Field

  1. Welp, came back empty handed, but that was what I expected. This was really more of a scouting trip to see if we were getting any action. May have mentioned before that this place has been completely neglected as a hunting lease the last 2 years or so, and we only very recently started feeding again. Also, I was out there solo, so would have had to come across something no sane hunter would pass up to think about shooting. Saw a nice young 8 point, 2 doe, and a spike between 3 hunts. Fairly encouraging, considering we currently have a grand total of 2 feeders that have only been running for 2 weeks. Nothing ever came out to chase those doe, so guessing still a while until the rut starts in my neck of the woods. 2 annoying things: 1. Wednesday-Friday would have been perfect hunting weather, but or course season started on Saturday, just in time for it to get unseasonably warm again. Made a nice fire Friday night, woke up to temperature around 45 on Saturday morning. Warmed up a good 35 degrees over the course of the day. I was sweating my ass off until sundown. This morning started out warm and overcast and then got so foggy you could barely see. 2. Feeder timing was sub-par at best. Fed way too early on Saturday morning. Was still pitch dark for a good 30 minutes after going off. Also, Dad texted to remind me to adjust the feeders to account for DST starting today. I thought I had, but must have fat fingered the control panel on the one I hunted this morning and set it back 2 hours instead of one. Feeder went off exactly 1 hour after I was expecting it to, just as I was climbing out of the stand. D'oh! Double checked that everything's in order with both before leaving today, so that should be a one and done issue.
  2. Fed aggressively raises interest rates with stated aim of cooling off overheated job market and wage inflation Job market finally cools off and wage inflation slows, lowering odds of additional hikes, bond sell-off reverses course Surly Permabears: What?!??! Why market no crash?!?!?!
  3. Been gloriously cool and sunny the past few days. Alas, it looks like clouds, humidity and warmer temps return this weekend, followed by a couple balmy days in the high 80's during the middle of next week. Cool, dreary weather to follow starting late next week.
  4. As of September 2023, 5.0% of employed persons are classified as a "multiple job holder." Basically right at the average for past 15 years. A higher % of people were working a 2nd job in the Fall of 2019 than the Fall of 2023.
  5. My sophisticated analysis of market trajectory over the past 2 weeks:
  6. 1. You're tacking on additional shit I didn't say. I didn't say "great" or "never been better" 2. The Fed tracks this data every year in its annual Economic Well-Being Surveys. Most recent data was from 2022, when 73% of respondents said their personal financial situation was "okay", "good", or "great". That's down from 78% in 2021, but in line with the average of 74% since 2017. (By comparison that number was below 70% for the the entire period between 2012-16). Digging through the data, most of the decline came from lower income folks with a HS diploma or less. College Grads were at 88%, near all-time highs. The big "wow" is that 50% of respondents rated the national economy as "good or excellent" in 2019. That dropped to 26% in 2020, and all the way down to 18% in 2022. I don't see any way of interpreting the data other than that people's assessment of their personal financial situation has not changed all that much in the past 4 years, while their assessment of the national economy has fallen off a cliff. People by and large think they're doing at least OK, but that the country as a whole is worse off than even 2007. 3. Not to be a dick, but it's pretty apparent from this thread you're inclined to discount any economic data that doesn't vibe with your ongoing personal experience of "it sucks to be in the mortgage business in 2023." I try not to do the opposite and ignore negative data because I work in O&G.
  7. The majority of poll respondents indicate that their personal financial situation is good and that their local economy is doing well, but they think the national economy is the worst in history.
  8. Lol, a Mises Caucus nut that frequently retweets Ian Miles Chong. Just what this thread needs.
  9. Just a little over 60 hours until feeders go off on Opening Day of rifle season. I'm already struggling to focus at work. Planning to duck out from work early Friday afternoon to get to my place with at least an hour or two of sunlight left. Wanna check and make sure nothing's gone wrong with feeders in the past 2 weeks and put a chair in my new stand. Not something I want to be making a bunch of noise trying to do in the dark Saturday morning.
  10. Realized I haven't posted in this thread since Memorial Day. Have kept up a pretty strict workout schedule. Minimum 4 days a week and I usually aim for 5 and sometimes even go 6 if I'm able to make it on Saturday mornings. Haven't weighed myself in months, but feels like I'm probably still plateaued somewhere in the 190-195 range. That said, I keep improving my muscle to fat ratios and steadily lifting heavier and heavier weights. By far the strongest I've been in 15+ years, maybe ever. Gonna keep up with the current regimen through New Years, as there's just too much going on this time of year to try and really "get in shape." Gonna do Dry January as usual, and toying with the idea of keeping it going until I turn 40 in early March. I think that would really help me drop those final 10 lbs that I can't seem to shed. We'll see how it goes.
  11. The outer ring of the front has finally made it to Houston proper. Got a little bit of rain and it dropped from about 85 at 5:30 to 70 right now. Gonna fall a couple degrees every hour from now until noon tomorrow, bottoming out around 45.
  12. 86 with 60% humidity, feels like 92 in 77018. Hurry up already!
  13. Still swampy AF in Houston. Looks like the front won't make it to our neck of the woods until around 7:00 this evening, so it appears we'll get one more afternoon with a heat index in the low 90's. Not gonna make it below 60 until around midnight, so unless you're a Sunday Night Owl, won't experience much in the way of "cold" until getting up tomorrow morning. So over this revival of Late Summer weather we've had since last Friday. Went out to the RenFest yesterday and that was easily the hottest, muggiest trip I've ever taken out there. Even in just shorts and a t-shirt I was thoroughly sweaty. Saw several people that looked like they were on the verge of keeling over. Can't imagine wearing a big heavy costume all day out in those conditions.
  14. I'm on Marketwatch every day, solely b/c I find their stock and commodities tickers user friendly. The articles on the site itself are 90% clickbait trash. Every single day: "Why this hedge fund titan predicts a coming Ice Age for stocks" "He made a fortune during the 2008 crash, why he's now saying to prepare for financial Armageddon" They even have a daily "Am I the asshole?" type column where people ask shit like "I'm about to inherit $5M from my father. My lazy POS brother doesn't get anything. He thinks I should pay for the funeral costs. I think we should split 50/50. Is that fair?"
  15. FIrst Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 is 2.7%. Goldman's initial estimate is 1.6%. For Q3, GDPNow started off at 3.5% and eventually settled at 5.4%, while JPM, Goldman, etc.. were all initially ~0.5%. They slowly converged upwards towards GDPNow over the ensuing months.
  16. Projected wind chill at noon on Monday.
  17. Apparently we've got gypsies in Garden Oaks. Saw a post on FB today of some Roma ladies stealing shit from a clothing store on 34th.
  18. Strong cold front still on track for arrival sometime between Sunday evening (CenTex) to early Monday morning (Houston). Until then, a late Summer-esque weekend of mid-80's, copious humidity, and mosquitoes. Looks like around 10 pm Sunday, it will feel like high 30's in Austin but still high 70's here in Houston. We'll wake up to weather that feels 30 degrees colder than when we went to sleep. Tempted to hop in the pool one last time in 2023 for shits and giggles on Sunday afternoon. Water temp was 78 when I looked yesterday, which is pretty brisk, but not unbearable by any means. Front looks like it will last right around 4 days, including a very chilly Halloween. Should revert back to "typical early November" temps of ~75/60 by next weekend.
  19. All is Doomed! Imminent recession! Cooked Numbers! House of Cards! Buy Gold and Ammo!
  20. Weather forecast currently looking pretty solid for Opening Day. 73/52 and sunny at my place in ETX. A touch warmer than I'd like, but not too shabby. Last year, on the one day I got to hunt, when I was still just a guest on this lease, it was about 80, so foggy you could barely see the feeder, and mosquitoes were all over the place. First real cold front rolled through the next day. Got 2 feeders up an running this past Sunday, so I'm hoping that ~3 weeks of reliable feeding will have been long enough to get some regular diners showing up. Brother heading out Sunday to fill some more corn and check and make sure hogs haven't wreaked havoc on the work Dad and I accomplished this past weekend. Definitely won't be surprised if there's not much action next weekend, but I'm just really excited to be hitting Opening Weekend at my own lease, hunting my own stand and feeder for the first time in my life.
  21. Official release this morning was 4.9%. JPM was pretty close with their final prediction of 4.7% yesterday. Markets unhappy of course.
  22. One thing I learned at Game 6 on Sunday: The Butcher stall in Sec. 224 is one of the best dining values in the stadium. 2 meat plate with 2 sides was only something like $27 and actually pretty damn decent BBQ for being at a concession stand. Generous serving of brisket and half a chicken, roasted brussels sprout/potato mix and mac and cheese was more than enough food for wife and I to split.
  23. If I'm reading this right, at 10 PM Sunday night, the "feels like" will be 37 in Austin but 78 in Houston. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctapp-imp&rh=2023102412&fh=135&r=conus
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