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Thetexashammer

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Thetexashammer

  1. So you think that Jay Powell is wrong? Do you have some justification for disagreeing with mainstream economics?
  2. The question comes down to whether or not you are willing to let them have a nuclear bomb. Iran is the leading worldwide sponsor of terror attacks. They were the leading proponent of the Oct 7 attack, of the Houthis and their attacks on commercial trade, and of Hezbollah. They openly celebrate the rape and killing of women and the murder of (Christian or Jewish) children. They've been this way for decades. It is informative to consider the words of Khamenei from one month ago, prior to the current war. The point is, these aren't just emotional utterances but rather are fundamental values of the regime. There is fundamentally no reason to enrich uranium. These fools are sitting on top of vast oceans of hydrocarbons. It's a nuclear program with one purpose. For this reason, literally nobody is coming to their rescue. There was no commercial reason to bury their uranium enrichment 300 feet deep outside of anticipating the air campaign. Nobody wants a nuclear arms race in the middle east. Iran has no friends, not even China. But air campaigns are not effective at regime change. So it's a conundrum, if you believe that they cannot have a nuclear weapon, which Trump has stated over and over again. Where is the off ramp? Do we have to use tactical nukes on Fordo? What do we do in six months if there is no regime change? I do think the odds of an actual ground invasion are basically zero. I think if Iran tries to close the Straits, they will unite the world against them and actually get the regime change that is so unlikely as of now. I think maybe 60% our attack will come this weekend.
  3. May Core inflation 2.4% YoY but only 0.1% MoM. No sign of tariff inflation at all. May US PPI MoM 0.1%, also showing no signs of tariff inflation. Initial jobless claims steady at 248k. Nonfarm payrolls at 139k. Very weak for this size economy, and obviously there were downward revisions of prior reports as there always are. So the real number is probably a lot lower than 139k. May Empire State manufacturing index was -16. Completely terrible, but it's NY it doesn't really matter. May Retail sales -0.9%. I talked with Martha Stewart, that's not a good thing. The household employment survey showed a loss of 700k jobs, but this indicator isn't considered reliable in the short term. Housing starts down to 1.26 million from 1.36 million. Both terrible objectively, and well below consensus. Initial jobless claims this week still steady at 245k, but there was a holiday so who knows really. Continuing jobless claims however surprised to the upside. Leading economic indicators came in yesterday at -0.1%. From the Conference Board: Basically, if you were hoping for inflation, you are likely to be disappointed. Tariff-flation isn't showing up. But good news if you hate Trump, this is because the economy is decelerating and appears to be headed towards (probably mild) recession, barring any animal spirits.
  4. That was some of the most insane racing I've ever seen.
  5. The people are great. The government not so much.
  6. What was actually going on was that YouTube was pushing to create TV on the internet, pushing corporate content like CNN and MSNBC, and those videos were all getting disliked intensely. If you have the app, you can still see it. Never click on those videos, you will get spammed with MSNBC or FOX videos for all eternity. In summary, YouTube sucks dicks and is run by women and emotion rather than logic and facts.
  7. I immediately got the app to add back the dislikes. And the worst decision they made was taking an extreme social marxist political position and engaging in censorship. They destroyed their own platform thinking they had an impenetrable monopoly.
  8. We are going vertical with the debt now. Printer goes brrrrrrr.
  9. A few weeks ago the OCC, which regulates banks, pushed out a new order enabling commercial banks to custody and buy/sell cryptos to customers. https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2025/nr-occ-2025-42.html You are going to start seeing, when you open up your bank account, Checking, USD Savings, and Bitcoin/Tether accounts all listed together. The stablecoin bill, which is about to pass, is a serious problem for banks, because most banks are holding onto your cash and paying 0% interest, and for Visa/Mastercard who need their 2.5%. And when you have the option to save in a currency that doesn't depreciate to Bolivia and they're oh by the way they're not making more of it, you will do that too. Money printer going brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
  10. Rate down go. know not yet. printer go brrrrrrrrr. No stop train.
  11. You are literally so braindead that you have no idea that you actually just made the strongest possible argument for bitcoin and against the US dollar LOL.
  12. Prepare for widespread reduction in living standards, absent an AI miracle. That said, I expect low inflation readings for the near term. Just like under ZIRP, when the economy can't grow it's really hard to have inflation. 30 year will break 5% but QE there will be a fiscal crisis and QE will bring rates back down to ZIRP, or else government goes bankrupt in the near term.
  13. I've always appreciated your sometimes brutal honesty.
  14. Probably my favorite phrase in English is "fecal urgency".
  15. This is vicarious embarrassment, however it's totally true. During a workplace spanish class, I'm sitting next to my buddy who lost his ring finger falling off a ladder when his wedding ring got hooked on the ladder or whatever. Instructor says "cuantos dedos tienes" and looks at him. I am sitting next to him and see the train wreck coming. I immediately start dying on the inside as he responds "nueve". She says "no no no, diez". I am dying and eventually can't control myself. He says "nueve". She responds "diez" again. I am physically and audibly losing my shit. He holds up his hand. Instructor proceeds to turn extremely green with shame. It was one of the most truly hilarious things I've ever seen.
  16. Is Elon Musk The Father Of Your Child? Signs To Look For | Babylon Bee
  17. Here's a radical notion. Get rid of all coins. Fuck all that shit. I haven't touched american coins in at least a decade. Smallest hard cash is $1 folding money. Everything else can be stablecoin or digital, with unlimited digits to the right of the decimal. Stablecoins are about to replace all your credit card transactions anyway.
  18. Inflation has monotonically increased for the last seven months. The elements of the CPI that increased are not imported goods subject ot tariffs. The biggest was housing, which made up 30% of the CPI increase. The rest was health costs, food, used cars, and energy.
  19. I used to be a CPA. I use debt to the penny, not the reported "deficit". Even the reported "surplus" under Clinton was not a real surplus. The primary difference between the reported deficit and the actual one is "one time factors". It's like a company saying they made $1.00 in earnings, but they are taking a $9.00 writedown for goodwill. Well that's real money you wrote down LOL, you can't exclude it. Do you also believe the CBO projections? They claim we will never have a recession and even then we go bankrupt. Go back and look at their projections under Clinton, I shit you not the claimed the debt would be fully paid off by now. For 2024, the real deficit was $2.3 trillion. But we are at peak economic growth.
  20. You are missing the point. Pubs have been corrupt shitheads for decades. Trying to figure out who is to blame is for fools, or blaming MAGA as most of you are doing, is delusional. I support the cuts because they are a first step towards limiting the pain of the coming fiscal crisis. Only a fool would oppose these cuts, likewise only a fool would not recognize the necessity for much more massive spending cuts as soon as possible. But FUCK MAGA!!!! YEEEEAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH!!!!! The inflation we are seeing is nothing compared to what is coming. The disruption will cause massive social unrest and result in the ending a large numbers of federal programs and put our security at risk. Basic math indicates we may see 50% cuts across the board to all spending categories outside of interest. But then, nobody here has the intelligence to engage on the numbers, do they? Did you realize that the debt to GDP explodes when you cut federal spending (it reduces GDP) and we go into recession? That our pension funds will go bankrupt, and a decline in the dollar will grow inflation even more? States and cities can go bankrupt, many of them are. The FDIC is VERY thinly funded.
  21. I tried to explain, over and over again, the fiscal situation. This was a couple of years ago. I looked at debt to the penny for 1 OCT 2023, then compared in with the same number for 1 OCT 2024. Then I looked up federal spending in fiscal 2024. I calculated a deficit of 8.2%. You can replicate that calculation, some of you, but not most. 40% of every dollar of federal spending is borrowed. These aren't even RIFs. RIFs are coming. The money doesn't exist to pay those salaries. 20% is of federal spending interest expense, which cannot be cut. In order to balance the budget we have to cut around 50% of all noninterest spending. Once we hit a recession, the deficit will blow out to $5 trillion. No one will finance our deficits. The dollar will crumble. Inflation explodes. The leftists here decided they didn't love their children enough to care about all of that. The crisis was avoidable, were it not for people like you. All you had to do was balance the budget. Stop believing the lie. I wish the best to all of you. Prepare for what is coming or don't. Your track record so far isn't great.
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