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TKthunder2

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by TKthunder2

  1. Those B1G games were OTA on NBC and FOX which give them boosted numbers. Even so, I see Big 12 games pulling similar numbers on ESPN even without Colorado. BYU in the last 3 weeks pulled 2 million, 1.75 million and 1.3 million. K State/Houston did 1.5 million and Iowa State/Tech did 1.25, and again this is leaving out a few ratings monsters courtesy of The Sanders Family and Travis Hunter. Overall, the Big 12 is doing pretty good with TV metrics if you simply acknowledge they will not (typically) beat out Michigan/Ohio St/Penn St/Oregon/USC, Notre Dame, or any of the featured SEC games. They hold their own pretty well against the ACC and the mid Big Ten teams, it’s just the playoffs they have to worry about. If they prove to be non factor multiple years in a row it’s eventually going to take its toll on the regular season television ratings.
  2. Because it minimizes the committee as much as possible and its the price for the getting 4 each. This is a great deal for the Big 12 and Big Ten. It’s so-so for the ACC, but if they lose FSU/Clemson it becomes a great deal for them, and with that real possibility on the horizon they should take it. The G6 and ND just want access so I assume they will be fine with the setup as well. Honestly I think the SEC is the one giving up the most here. While they would benefit from this arrangement this year, they’ve consistently said that they wish every spot was at large, so locking them in with only 4 bids is likely not what they want (though I assume they are banking on getting that at large spot in years when ND is down). I’d hope the conference would get to pick its 4 teams from their conference standings and NOT include OOC games, then the committee could use total body of work INCLUDING OOC games to pick the line at large team (that would be a nice little fuck you to ND).
  3. The SEC and Big Ten, at a minimum, will not let this setup continue into 2026-7. The original contract for the CFP expires. Everyone can walk away after next year which means it does NOT require unanimous agreement like it did this last go around. The SEC/B1G can/will bully the rest of the league for better or worse. Major issues that will need to be addressed: The SEC 3 loss teams getting passed over by 2 loss Clemson will not go unnoticed (Ole Miss and Bama beat UGA who beat Clemson like a drum). ND and Miami ranked higher than UGA (who has the toughest SOS and far better wins AND losses) will not go unnoticed. The setup where Miami and Boise State get a bye and the REAL argument that the 5 seed‘s path (ASU, Boise) to the NCG could be better than the 1 seed (UGA/TN winner) will not stand. The debate over 2 loss SEC teams versus 1 loss Indiana did not sit well with the Big Ten. At a minimum I think you’ll see the autobid be relegated to access bids only and no longer tied to byes. They’ll also move second round games from the bowls to home stadiums of the top 4 seeds. Maybe there will be another push for 14 teams with more autobids (SEC/B1G get 4, B12/ACC get 2, 1 for G6, 1 at large to allow room for ND) and guaranteed byes for the SEC/B1G champs. If the SEC and B1G don’t get their way, this will open the door for more realignment. This is all true within the current setup. But if it is going to get blown up, taking away FSU/Clemson/Miami from the ACC will relegate them just like it did with the Big12. You take those 3 (and ND if you can) into the B1G/SEC and you have 13 of the top 15 teams (currently it’s 10). Right now 1 loss SMU it between the SEC 2 and 3 loss teams, but you consolidate even more within the two conferences and I’m not going to be surprised to see a 1 loss B12/ACC team after a 3 loss SEC/B1G. The system will be setup so the 2 ACC/B12 teams plus the G6 highest conference champ will make it in, but 1 loss non conference champs not in the SEC/B1G will be on the bubble with 3 loss teams (and those with 2 losses need not apply for at large spots, unless you’re ND).
  4. Seriously, how is the number one seed the worst position? I’d take seed 2, 3, 5, or 6 over 1.
  5. The people actually doing true projections and not just aligning with the seeds with the rankings are picking UGA to win.
  6. Or their OC finally figured out how to call a good game and their QB is healthy once again. Rankings are a beauty pageant based on past performance not a predictive measurement, that would be a power rating like ESPN’s FPI
  7. 100% projecting, this is just what they hope happens. Can’t wait to hear all of their excuses and backtracking late Saturday night.
  8. You clearly don’t know bizzle.
  9. And I didn’t get any alert on it, so I guess I’m below the loyalty points threshold since I’m grandfathered in. Seat Geek it is then.
  10. At least they are admitting to it now…
  11. If they had money to fix the roads, why the fuck the roads so fucking shitty?
  12. Just got a message that I had to request playoff tickets for possible home game by tomorrow. Did I miss the SEC championship game application?
  13. And that’s fair, I think Texas is more fun to talk about which is why we’re seeing these comparisons between them and Indiana, when really Penn State is skating by in a very similar situation with no national pressure for some reason.
  14. I don’t disagree that they pick who they want and justify it later. Still you comparing Texas to Indiana is just a bad talking point that the national media really should stop using. Excluding Michigan Texas beat Vanderbilt and Arkansas who beat Alabama and Tennessee respectively. Indiana beat Nebraska and UCLA who beat Colorado and Iowa respectively. Even though both have easy schedules within their own conference, an easy Big Ten schedule is still far weaker than an East SEC schedule.
  15. I agree, losses should matter. I think it’s ridiculous that committee has Bama and Ole Miss ahead of Georgia. Georgia has two quality wins (Texas and Tennessee) and no bad losses only two quality losses (Bama/Ole Miss) Bama has one quality win (UGA) and one bad loss (Vandy) and one quality loss (Tenn) Ole Miss has one quality win (UGA) and two bad losses (LSU/Kentucky)
  16. lol at including Notre Dame
  17. Serious answer is that parity sucks. You need a few good teams to be contenders each year. Utah, Okie State, and TCU being down hurts the perception of the conference nationally and people immediately said “damn the Big 12 fucking sucks this year” and tuned out. You can have a few surprise teams but when 3 of your top 4 teams were picked to be 3 of the worst 4 in the league during preseason it’s not going to be a positive and gives the impression that all the teams sucks and these are just the ones that are getting lucky.
  18. People are dumb. Sure if we’re only counting current CFP top 25 wins we’d be fucked, lucky for us other things are factored into it. No one respects aggy, especially now that their big wins have up and vanished like a fart in the wind. Look at where they are ranked. If they beat us they aren’t jumping into the top 8. Then they lose to Bama/UGA or whoever they’ll fall right out again. If they win out… UGA is in. Big wins against Texas, Tennessee, Clemson, and no shitty loses. Alabama is also likely in. Big win against UGA only one shitty loss to Vandy. After that the committee will do whatever it wants and justify it after the fact like they always have. Ole Miss is a smaller brand with one big win and two shitty loses and a worse SOS than Texas. I’d feel pretty confident going into a CFP beauty pageant against them, even with an aggy loss. Not as sure about Tennessee but I doubt it matters. Texas has no big wins but took care of business against Arkansas, Vandy and presumably Kentucky who all pulled upsets over Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss respectively. That count for something. As always, “just win” is the best advice. Win and it don’t make a shit what the talking heads say.
  19. Seems like doing a proof of concept between Austin and San Antonio would be a good first step.
  20. Are they really arguing that they have a better resume than Notre Dame? If only there was a way to determine which team was better…
  21. Truth. The SEC isn’t going to allow a “you are what your record says you are” mindset. If the system is just stacking everyone up by wins and losses then this system won’t make it past 2026. CFP may be dooming themselves.
  22. I could see them being 4th over Penn State. Not sure I could move them higher than that until they beat Ohio State or someone else loses.
  23. We know they are going to manipulate the ranking/seeding for the best matchups some and while ND@IU is juicy locally, nationally it doesn’t move the needle. Ohio State at 5 vs the G5 champ is a lock if they win out but lose their CCG. Then you get to the SEC 10-2 teams. You have to split up UGA, Bama, TN because they all played each other already. I think you swap UGA and TN because Texas and UGA have already played and UGA vs Oregon and Texas versus either ND or TN would be great. Bama/Pedo is also a great matchup so that one stays. Obviously this all changes based on the outcomes of the Indiana/Ohio St and UGA/TN games but “as is” I think this is close to what could be a great playoff. Indiana/UGA and Boise/Ohio St would be the worst games and go to TNT while ND/TN and Bama/Pedo would headline on ESPN.
  24. Maybe if that Michigan win by Indiana is enough to jump Tennessee…either way I’d bet the top 8 are all B1G/SEC with Bama getting a big jump (assuming BYU loses). Then: ND, Miami, BYU, Boise First Out: Ole Miss and aggy
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