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Texas Jeff

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Everything posted by Texas Jeff

  1. More than 25% of Texans over 16 now have a first shot. At this pace we will hit 50% in 40 days. And based on recent progress I would take the under. Phase 2 (no restrictions) is coming sooner than people think -- I have no inside info, they are just going to run out of 1A/1B/1C arms.
  2. Every Tuesday, the feds publish allocation data for the next week here: https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html That leads to Friday, when the state publishes allocation data for the next week here: https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/immunize/vaccineallocations.aspx The feds have a table just for J&J (Janssen) and the state breaks it out in their weekly allocations. So you can see how much J&J is coming to Texas and where it is going by the weekend before the distribution week. I don't have a link for the J&J ramp but I have read articles saying that the first week was a dump of all of the vaccine they had made up until that point, in the time when they were waiting for their trial to be over and for EUA approval. That was "Week 13". Now we are in a period where the initial dump is distributed and they are just distributing what they are able to manufacture that week, which is lower. However, I have read that once the factory ramp period is over they are going to be producing a lot of J&J quickly ... and that period could be over around the end of March. Put that together and we had a happy J&J week 13, followed by a trickle for a few weeks, followed hopefully by a flood in April.
  3. The projected date at which 50% of Texans will have a first shot keeps moving in. Last weekend it was May 11th. Yesterday it hit May 1st. Today it is April 27th. The number of first shots per day is just flying up. Expect a little flattening over the next two weeks because there is not much J&J this week or next, followed by maybe a lot more J&J in late March and April. But holy cow the numbers are rising.
  4. Better than listenin' to some dipshit, doesn't know what the hell he's talkin' about, anyway!
  5. Biden is directing all states to open it up to all adults by May 1st.
  6. C'mon that was not his message. He was encouraging people to go get vaccinated as soon as they are able to find an opportunity. He set the vision that if we all do our part, we can celebrate the 4th of July with backyard gatherings. He said that large scale gatherings may not be wise by then, but we would follow the science. I'm paraphrasing but the message was go get vaxxed ASAP so that we can get back with friends and family and stop missing out on life.
  7. Texas 1st shot percent now over 20%. Seniors will hit 50% on Friday.
  8. Here's allocated does vs actual shots as of today. The blue line is first shots, the orange line is second shots. The solid lines are the federal allocation for Texas and the dotted lines are shots-in-arms. The lines curved upwards this week because of the J&J vaccine. Since only one dose of J&J is needed per person, it moves both the "first shot" and "fully vax" lines. The actual shot lines are tracking the allocation lines with a time delay, which tells me that we are still supply-constrained. The solid lines show only doses that the feds have already promised to deliver. Weekly allocations are usually released on Tuesday and move the lines upward. But you can see where we are headed.
  9. Today, Texas' 7 day average daily 1st shots exceeded the capacity of DKR for the first time. I know the feds are delivering more vax but we are burning through it plus some of the backlog from the freeze. Texas is on pace to finish 50% of seniors five days from now and 50% of everyone over 16 by May 10th. At the 7 day rate, 100% of seniors should have a shot by April 30th and 100% of those over 16 by Aug 21st. The percentage of shots going to seniors is falling off, now around 37%. Seniors are still getting shots at about the same numbers each day, but dropping as a percentage of the whole as supply increases. Travis Co is catching up, but is still about 10 days behind the rest of the state for both seniors and everyone else.
  10. Here's two: 1. On the Red Line, develop 3-4 stations with double tracked rail in the Robinson Ranch area to create a ribbon shaped urban area between roughly Lakeline Mall and the Domain. 2. Relocate Mopac (the train) to improve Mopac (the road) with commuter rail and maybe a second toll lane, allowing you to connect Round Rock/Robinson Ranch/the Domain/Downtown/South Austin all with commuter rail.
  11. Right now it's all doses, 2 per customer. So right now it's enough to give 700k both shots. The J&J is just now arriving so next week that won't be true,
  12. Yeah, about that inventory... Here's a look at inventory over time. This is for ALL shots, not just first shots. This is the amount of doses that have been received by sites but not injected. It is always going to be more than zero because it takes some time for a dose to go from the delivery dock to a shot in an arm. We were headed for lower inventory before the snowstorm. Now we have more because more shots per week arrived and we didn't give many shots during the snow. Still, it's about a week's worth of inventory at our current injection rate. Supply is going up but so is the rate of injection.
  13. The "there are only seven notes in this song" is what Longhorn Band and many other SWC bands sang in the stands when SMU played their fight song. Ah, the SWC, where did it go? Sing along the next time you hear SMU play their fight song....
  14. Last May Abbott "reopened" Texas. By mid-June he was looking for an out. Man, just when numbers were on the way down and everyone had water and electricity again...
  15. They probably had a phone, but it was rotary dial and no one knew how to make a call.
  16. I don't know the words either, however I do know: There are only seven notes in their song There are only seven notes in their song There are only seven notes There are only seven notes There are only seven notes in their song.
  17. Currently 39% of Texans 65+ have had a 1st shot.
  18. Here's a look at the Texas vaccine allocation vs reality through the end of February. Solid lines show what was allocated, dashed lines show what actually happened. Allocations run ahead of shots. You can see that Texas was catching up with the allocated amounts through mid Feb, got knocked back by the storm, but is now getting back on track.
  19. What's the demographic like at the UT site? Average age and obvious co-morbidity or not? I am registered with UT and willing to wait my turn but it would be nice to know how they are selecting people and about what age they are currently inviting, so that I could judge my place in line.
  20. Some of the data you want is here: https://www.dshs.texas.gov/immunize/covid19/COVID-19-Vaccine-Data-by-County.xls You can see how many 1A and 1B, total allocations, people with one shot and fully vaccinated, over 65, people with a medical condition, all broken down by county.
  21. Texas Week 12 is out: https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/updates/COVIDVaccineAllocation-Week12.pdf In Travis Co, APH stays the same at 12k. UT ramping up, now over 9k shots per week. Seton really back in the game with 14k Moderna. This is the first week that Travis Co's first shot weekly allocation has cleared the bar to vaccinate everyone over 16 in six months. Some other counties in central Texas are pretty far behind, particularly Bastrop, so these extra shots should help the region catch up with state averages.
  22. Texas Week 11 is out. Welcome to Texas, FEMA... https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/updates/COVIDVaccineAllocation-Week11.pdf FEMA will be setting up sites at Jerry World, Fair Park, and NRG Stadium. 42k doses for DFW, 42K for Houston. UT and Seton getting more allocation in Austin, along with some other non-APH sites. Shots at Fair Park cost 10 tickets and come with a fried item of your choice.
  23. Best you can do today is watch the control room sweat it out. Here's Curiosity's view of landing on Mars, from 2012. I think the thing dropping at the beginning is the heat shield.
  24. Earth again invades Mars today, good luck JPL and NASA: https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/ Landing is around 2:55 central time this afternoon. Here's a preview of the landing: This rover has a drone helicopter attached. They are going to attempt powered autonomous flight on Mars. JPL is no place for the meek.
  25. Interesting, I stand corrected... Right now they show 1000 first shots in inventory, I was going on that. They really need to be aiming for the 5k mark per day county wide for first shots, for all of the hubs in the county -- 35k first shots per week. A capacity of 10k shots per day. However you get there, hubs, HEB, whatever. 35k first shots per week gets you to 100% of the over 16 population in Travis Co in 30 weeks from when you started, which is around August or so. Right now Travis Co has a seven day average of 1841 per day, or about 12,900 per week. They need to double or triple capacity and hope that the vaccine supplies increase, and be ready when they do.
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