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Everything posted by 40acredropout
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Man, I'm jazzed up for this weekend. Will be in Columbus for the ND @ OSU game. Can't stand either team, but go to a random game every year with my best friends from growing up. Will be tough to top doing that and then Texas vs. Bama the very next week. As for other games... the obvious match-ups have been mentioned above but two other games/story lines I thought were fun: Army @ (-2) Coastal Carolina One of my favorite elements of college football is the contrasting styles you see. While both teams were top 15 in rushing % last season, they could not look much more different. Coastal has McCall back at QB but... not much else. They rank 129th in returning team production. Army doesn't fare too much better (89th) Definitely two scrappy programs... I think this will be fun to watch. NMSU @ (-36.5) Minnesota- Jerry Kill medically retired in 2015 and has spent the last 7 years publicly bad mouthing TJ Fleck Most recently, said he wasn't sure if he'd shake hands with Fleck. Not saying he's right or wrong, but at least makes it interesting. NMSU is dog shit. 1-10 last season against FBS teams. On average, lost by 20 points per game. They also bring back nothing, ranking 116th in returning production (Minn at 50th). This is Kill's first season. Fleck has downplayed any drama but you know he wants to kick the ever living shit out of Jerry. By SP+, Minnesota (31) is 100 teams better than NMSU (131). Same as Tennessee (10) and Ball States (110). Vegas has Minnesota at 36.5 point favorites, compared to Tennessee at 33.5. Tennessee is actually capable of scoring in bunches. Is Vegas pricing in an old fashion grudge fuck?
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You're historically right and 38.5 is definitely a lot of points. But the interesting subtext here is Jerry Kill taking over at NMSU and his contentious relationship with Fleck/Minnesota. Kill has talked shit on Fleck publicly several times over the past few years to which Fleck has downplayed. Without a doubt, Fleck wants to kick the ever living shit out of Jerry. And he can. NMSU is very much ass. 1-10 last year against FBS teams. They rank 116th in returning production from that dogshit team that lost by 18 points per game on average. They gave up 40.9 points per game. I saw the O/U go down to 52.5 and jumped on the over. I cannot imagine Fleck letting off the gas here. Especially since they have 9 days before their next game with FCS Western Illinois, so not like they're looking ahead to a big game.
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I'm sure I talk myself into adding more but what I have so far for Week 1: U60.5 La Tech at Mizzou O51 WVU at Pitt O52.5 NMSU at Minnesota U51.5 Temple at Duke Houston -4.5 at UTSA BYU -11.5 at USF Utah -3 at Florida Kentucky -16.5 vs Miami (OH) Boise State +3 at Oregon State
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Second season in a row that I've lost my opening bet because of Nebraska. Lesson fucking learned lol. Starting to dig into Week 1 matchups a little bit. Right now I'm liking Houston -4 at UTSA and BYU - 11.5 at South Florida. Road favorites... I think I'm a sucker because that definitely seems to be one of my tendencies. Speaking of tendencies... I looked back at my picks from last season and I need to start doing more O/U betting. Was 14-6 on those (70%) and then only 33-34 on picking winners against the spread.
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Game Week Thread [2022] Louisiana Monroe @ Texas
40acredropout replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Momma didn't raise no bitch, did she @immamac? -
Game Week Thread [2022] Louisiana Monroe @ Texas
40acredropout replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
So the TE's actually do read the board? -
I alluded to it in Fall Camp thread but one of biggest reaons for optimism (IMO) is Quinn should be a day 1 upgrade at throwing the deep ball. Not to pile on Casey, but his 2021 ranks among 125 FBS QB's with at least 25 deep ball attempts (20+ yards): Accuracy %: 95th Turnover Worthy Play %: 104th Big Throw Rate: 78th Average Time to Throw: 24th, which makes above even shittier. Anybody who watched games knows that his poor performance in this area wasn't some function of scheme or opportunity. Really sucks we won't get to see Neyor as a deep weapon but our ability to keep defenses more honest should be a lot better anyway. Respect the home run threat with deeper safeties or keep a cleaner box for Bijan. Choose your shit sandwich.
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Nice- great place to visit. Send Casey our best.
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Nothing we didn’t already know but Gotdam Sam got that dawg in him. Don’t have an NFL team and don’t really typically care to watch but have a feeling Sam might change that.
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If Quinn’s feel for the deep ball is half way as good as advertised I think people here are going to be very pleasantly surprised with what we are going to be able to dial up offensively. Don’t have it in front of me but looked earlier and of something like 120ish QB’s with 20+ deep passing attempts (20+ yards), Casey ranked 98th last year in adjusted completion percentage ((completions + drops) / attempts). While he did dial up a nice deep ball on his derp derp 3rd down conversion today, I also counted 3 deep balls that were easy TD’s if he put it anywhere fucking close to his receiver. Which he didn’t. Just like all of last year.
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Wait, what? What’s the story on this? Sorry if I missed this somewhere.
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Nebraska vs Nawfwestern - 11:30am - FOX (9:30 Pacific)
40acredropout replied to Pancho's topic in Football
Suddenly? -
Here we go. Hit 54% on my picks last season but was (am) a regard and my bet amount allocation put me down overall on the year. This year is different... I've got: Nebraska -13 v Northwestern Vanderbilt -8 @ Hawaii U44 Wyoming v Illinois U50.5 Nevada @ NMSU UNT PK @ UTEP Placed bets Thursday... line moved in my favor on 4/5 which is validating. But doesn't make a shit... feels like I end up losing those ones way more often than I think I will. Lets go!!
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Week Zero - Big Ol'Ugly Is Better Than Big'Ol Nothin'
40acredropout replied to closetojumping's topic in Football
Woke up like a kid on Christmas. God I love college football. -
Mexican-American woman in Dallas hates Indian immigrants
40acredropout replied to HornPhD's topic in Daily Texan
I’m ashamed to admit that the one and only time I tried a curry dish was a decade ago at Jester City Limits. Probably a poor introduction. -
I mean… Nicole did just tell us she got a $9k raise. I didn’t think it was that far fetched.
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Yeah... pretty bad take. I don't think anybody complaining about talent level is oblivious to where our recruiting classes have ranked. Recruiting services miss, players don't develop and players leave. 247 composite talent rankings at least accounts for transfers/departures but it still is far from perfect. Yes, we have some exciting young talent. But look at what is left of our highly rated 2018 and 2019 classes. Those are the 4th and 5th year guys who should be the heart and foundation of our team. There's 14 of them left. I don't have the answer but I'm willing to bet that is a way smaller number than other healthy programs. Then there's the part where half of them fucking suck. There's also a reason that the majority of the former 4/5*'s transferring out this offseason ended up at places like SMU, Houston, Sam Houston State, or Sacramento State. Previous staff did not know how to assess talent and/or develop it.
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This is what I'm talking about. Really? An argument doesn't exist to support idea of him being a good coach? UW in 5 seasons before Sark and during Sark's tenure: WINS: 1-2-5-4-0 -> 5-7-7-7-9 RECRUITING RANK: 23-66-35-36-24 -> 68-28-23-21-18 Is that not the body of work of a good coach? I'm not trying to play gotcha. Really- what would Sark had to have done at UW for you to have considered him a good coach? Yes- wheels fell off at USC. After he won 9 games in year 1 with scholarship sanctions. I completely disagree with the notion that an argument cannot be made that Sark has demonstrated himself to be a good coach. Are we now disagreeing on the definition of good? Maybe. I see someone who has shown they are more than capable and could be a winner at Texas. I'm not "insisting he will be" successful. We don't know yet. Which again, is my whole fucking point. I'm pushing back on this idea that any optimism could not possibly be rooted in fact or reason.
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As long as people continue to claim as a FACT that Sark cannot possibly be a good coach because (in his first season) he dropped 6 in a row, including to Kansas at home, I'm going to bring it up. Because that argument is fucking stupid. You point out how Saban won a national championship prior to his UL-Monroe oopsie... it validates my point. We obviously disagree on what we think Sark's resume says about him. That's fine. I don't really have the appetite to spar with you on that. I'm fucking retarded and it gives me a headache trying to anticipate the ways you'll shit all over every thing I type. I've laid out in previous posts why there's reason to believe he proved himself a capable head coach, given the circumstances. All I'm really fucking saying is that it's too early to know what Sark is going to be at Texas. I know you aren't refuting that, but others 1000% are. At this point, sound reasoning and logic can support both pessimistic and optimistic viewpoints. You obviously think your position is superior, but stop acting like anybody who disagrees is solely wish casting and pumping sunshine out of their ass.
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I'll be labeled a sunshine pumping Sark apologist but I still think it's way too early to tell what we have in Sark. Called "Seven Win Steve" like it's all he could possibly be. Zero room for nuance. The UW program he inherited averaged 2.4 wins in the 5 seasons prior to him taking over and winning 5, 7, 7, 7 and 8 games. He inherited a USC program that was down to 44 scholarship players in the bowl game before he took over. Believe the scholarship count was at like 65 in his first season in which he won 9 games. What it would've ended up like if not for his personal failures, who knows. Saban went on a 4 game death spiral and lost to UL-Monroe at home in his first season. Is it also a statement of fact that a good coach couldn't possibly do that? Lets just be patient and see. Sark has the endorsement of several elite football minds. He knows as well as anybody what a elite program looks like. And whether you want to give him credit or not for recent recruiting / NIL / portal windfalls, it is also a statement of fact that he is accumulating elite talent.
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Fun tidbit, Gary seems to know something about bounce back seasons at TCU: 2004 (5-6) -> 2005 (11-1) - 6 Game Improvement 2013 (4-8) -> 2014 (12-1) - 8 Game Improvement 2016 (6-7) -> 2017 (11-3) - 5 Game Improvement
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Since 2006: Teams see YOY increase of 5+ wins: 126 times, 7.9 per season. Teams see YOY increase of 5+ wins, reach 10+ total wins: 66 times, 4.1 per season Why not us, motherfuckers? Notes: Ignoring the 6 consecutive losses because I don't have the data Filtered by min of 5+ losses in previous season (controls for most COVID weirdness)
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We're back motherfuckers. My favorite play of week 0: Nebraska -13 v. Northwestern (in Dublin) Last Season: Both teams 3-9. Nebraska 6th ranked SOS vs. 66th for NW Nebraska won head-to-head meeting by 49 points Both 0-7 against mutual opponents. Average margin of defeat: 5.7 and 22.0, respectively Returning production: Connelly's SP+ Rankings (Overall, Offense, Defense): Nebraska- 44, 54, 33 Northwestern- 69, 107, 60 note this weighs returning players (plus transfers) and also weighs quality of recent recruiting Action Network's Transferring Assets & Returning Production Rankings (Overall, Offense, Defense): Nebraska- 33, 28, 46 Northwestern- 60, 70, 61 Other notes: Nebraska's scoring offense held them back last season (73rd points/play, 79th points/gm, 23rd yards/play, 71st turnovers/game) They trade out Casey for Adrian Martinez which I think is an upgrade, assuming health. Also bring in Pitt's OC who should open offense up a bit and I think help with scoring. NW is likely starting Hilinski at QB who was... not good last season. Ranked 150 out of 156 FBS QB's, per PFF player grades. Yes, fuck Casey. But otherwise, tell me why I'm wrong.
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Oh shit, good point. So it's completely irrelevant. Zero room for nuance here.
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Game Week Thread [2022] Louisiana Monroe @ Texas
40acredropout replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
47-13, good guys. Bijan- 123 total yards- 89 rushing, 34 receiving.
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