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Hookem2147

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Hookem2147

  1. 11 AM kick against San Jose State ain't gonna get many people fired up regardless of the previous week's result. At least the weather should be bearable (low to mid-80s during the game). The way this schedule is set up, in general, is going to check out most casual fans. 3 straight G5 games + a bye week + no home game in October. Feels a lot different than last year when we had UTSA and ULM right after Michigan, then jumped right into SEC play the next week.
  2. Bill Connelly made some similar points in his article this week: Indeed, all the major offensive measures are down compared with where they were this time last year. In Week 1 of last season, in FBS vs. FBS games, teams averaged 2.11 points per drive and 5.52 yards per play; this year it was 1.9 points per drive and 5.4 yards per play So what's the problem? Big plays vanished: The percentage of completions gaining at least 20 yards fell from 16.3% to 14.7%, and despite the uptick in completion rate (and the downtick in sacks), average yards per dropback fell from 6.4 to 6.0. You know how pro defenses adapted to force Patrick Mahomes to settle for checkdown after checkdown because they were basically forming an umbrella at the back? It appears college defenses are doing the same thing. They're forcing quarterbacks -- who, on average, are less experienced than in recent years -- to dink and dunk and score points before making a crippling error or coming up short on third down. It's working.
  3. Nothing gives a team and offense confidence like the coach saying let’s kick a FG from the 1 foot line to make a 1 touchdown a game a 1 touchdown game. I’m sure the offense would feel all warm and fuzzy jogging off the field.
  4. If you can put up with some Ian Boyd for 10-15 minutes, here is him and Wadlington breaking down a few Arch plays in the first half of the video.
  5. He did a good job of hitting the trifecta of talking points you hear from anyone with half a brain: 1. Questioned why his HS team got blown out in the playoffs if Arch is so good. lol 2. If he is so good why didn't he start last year. Check 3. Said if he was truly competitive and wanted to show he was the best, he would have competed at Elite 11. Nailed it.
  6. 1. Get Arch some confidence/rhythm 2. Let the OL gel 3. Figure out a different punt return plan than sticking Ryan Niblett back there 4. Get Christian Clark 30 carries Those are my priorities, in order, for the next 3 weeks. I don't even care that we are about to go 15/15 in the red zone either. The next time I'll care about that is Florida.
  7. Your opponent starting their next drive on their own 1 is actually something the computers factor in.
  8. The computers don’t assume you get 7 points. That is not how analytics work. Maybe that is the disconnect. It says that over the long haul, if you go for this 4th down every time, your win expectancy is greater and your expected points scored is greater than kicking FG. No one remembers the times we converted 4th down in the red zone and scored (Arch against A&M, opening drive against Kentucky, opening drive against Clemson, etc.)
  9. So we need to kick a FG from the one foot line in order to give ourselves a later opportunity to convert a two point try from the 3 yard line. And that assumes every other Ohio State possession plays out the same way (i.e you kick a FG from the 1 foot line, Ohio State isn’t starting their next possession from their own 1). Beating the Ohio State Buckeyes requires you to score touchdowns from the 1 foot line. We can try to convince ourselves otherwise with what-ifs and hypotheticals, but that’s the reality.
  10. Ohio State arguably won the game because they faced 4th and 1 in the second quarter of a 0-0 game and punched it in the end zone. Meanwhile we have people thinking we were going to beat Ohio State by attempting a bunch of field goals in a game where we had minimal offensive pulse until the 4th quarter. Kicking a FG from the one foot line to make a 1 touchdown game a 1 touchdown game defies every rule of game theory. It’s moronic.
  11. One of the most interesting articles I come across every week. Alex Dunlap's defensive deep dig on OB
  12. You wanted us to kick a field goal down 14-0 in the 4th quarter with 7:30 left?
  13. I was waiting for the fake sneak pass or pitch out to Baxter like the Kansas State game a few years back.
  14. Are people just making up an extra possession we never had? These are where our drives ended OSU 43- turnover on downs OSU 47 TEX 28 TEX 46 OSU 45 OSU 1- turnover on downs TEX 48 OSU 9- turnover on downs Touchdown Midfield-turnover on downs Where exactly is the mythical 3 field goals we are making to give us 16 points?
  15. It’s jarring to watch this and compare it to yesterday. No hitch in his delivery, layers the ball in when he needs to, footwork looks pristine. I sure hope yesterday was just an off day because it makes no sense, regardless of competition level.
  16. Ryan Day did not plan for 8 months to have 200 yards of total offense and count on Texas bailing him out in the red zone in order to win a 14-7 game. Let's be serious.
  17. I wouldn’t consider it a low line. Our non con lines last year -35 Colorado State -35.5 UTSA -43.5 ULM
  18. Rewatching the game now and what the hell was up with the slip n slide on the field? We had guys slipping all over the place and Ohio State had some too. It impacted several plays in the first half. Didn’t notice it as much in the second half.
  19. We had the better overall offensive performance and plan in both Ohio State matchups (and the second Georgia matchup) and went 0-3. That is the toughest pill to swallow for me. We had them beat in a variety of different ways and made the 2 or 3 mistakes at the worst times we couldn't afford to make. Ryan Day didn't do anything special in either matchup. He went into his shell, let Jeremiah Smith be a non-factor again and we are the ones who handed him the game. He didn't sit around Columbus all offseason gameplanning for a 200 yard performance on offense. It would be a different story if we were just getting our doors blasted off and outclassed in these games. They have all been winnable aside from Georgia part 1, and even that one was a one-possession game in the second half. I think Sark has won 20 straight games against unranked opponents going back to 2022. 10-6 against top 25 teams. It's the top 1% we are coming face to face with and we have to find a way to get over the top.
  20. San Jose State has a returning QB (Walker Eget) and runs a unique offense with a lot of quick passes. Eget was only sacked 5 times last year on 328 pass attempts. They can't run the ball at all. Their defense got gutted in the portal, and their special teams sucks (missed two FGs with a lefty kicker to lose the Central Michigan game, one of them was a chip shot). I'll say we win something like 48-10.
  21. Niblett is scared to field punts. He muffed several in scrimmage situations in camp, per several people who would know. I don't know why he is back there.
  22. Texas outgained Ohio State by 130 yards. I don’t think Ryan Day’s gameplan was to get 200 yards of total offense. Congrats to Ohio State for winning but acting like they had some superior gameplan and just whipped Texas is flat not true. Texas made the key mistake or two and Ohio State didn’t. Sark needs to be better in certain situations and he isn’t absolved of blame, but I had a feeling we might be in trouble when Arch skipped the ball to the receiver on the first play of the game when no one was within 10 yards.
  23. Must be the first coach in the sports history to ever lose a big game. No, I don’t understand. If you are letting 1 game influence your opinion, it was a shitty opinion to begin with.
  24. That’s even more reason to go for it. You are unlikely to ever get a better chance than the ball at the 1 foot line. And if you kick a FG, you need a TD anyway for it to truly matter. There is no way anyone can say with a serious face we should have kicked a field goal from the 1 foot line with what we had shown offensively up to that point.
  25. 4th and 4 from the 25 in the first quarter is the exact same as 4th and 1 from the 1 foot line down 7-0.
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