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horn4life

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  1. Yep. Hydrostatic water line test. If the house was a flip they may have never used the lines with much flow. But with the hydrostatic test you basically plug the drain line, fill to a level and look for any decline in the water line. Basically a cheap way to try to discover foundational drainage issues. But this sounds like water not from the drains, but from the supply side? Common one is under the dishwasher with a bad unseen connection. Often on new installs where the washer was never run. Super sorry that this is happening to your Daughter.
  2. Well finally starting to see some of the unemployment trickle upwards. Only a 5% increase over predicted, but a rise. Interesting to see the market digest the muting of Trump's tariff powers. Surge initially was over 500 points last night on the Dow futures. Now... about unchanged. "The markets can only focus on the shark nearest the boat," was a phrase I heard recently. Tariffs ahve been the closest shark. Now the inflation is coming most certainly, and the unemployment is beginning to rise. And focus will move towards normal fiscal risks. Like massive deficits to be funded when the 10 year is at most often close to 4.5%... Anyhow it will be interesting to see if the inflation will start to show up in tomorrows numbers or not.
  3. Oddly I was thinking about bank fishing with a lot of growth near the bank the other day when I was playing around with a new lightwieght casting rod in a small lake in Katy. But there was mossy growth everywhere cloer to the bank. But deeper out there was clean water. And then I thought about the Bobber Stopper rigs we use to fish the jetty! We use the adjustable depth bobber stopper rigs to control the depth of the bait, to NOT get repeatedly hung up ont he rocks. I wondered if a bigger rod with longer casting distance and heavier line to drag shit back though the growth if you do get a bite. So you could cast out past the growth and have a bait suspended in clean water. Would likely take some playing around with, but if you are getting blanked anyway. I also wondered if something like the synthetic shimp fish bit baits might work for white bass in fresh water. As everything eats shrimp, right? But it might work. And if it does, you will have a productive fishing hole!
  4. Tariffs are inflationary, period. And folks that say "it won't be that bad" simply are not good at math, and horrific at understanding economics. Walmart for example has until now "eaten the tariffs." Why would they "eat" tariffs? To not lose hard earned market share. Walmart can also ease up margins on ALL products due to the diversity in the sourcing of their product line. So the ability to "hide" the increased costs of tax tariffed products. During it's earning report Walmart explained that going forward, that they would have to pass on the costs to consumers at some point. In reaction to this truthful statement, the administration calls and threatens/begs/cajoles Walmart to not pass on rising costs associated with tariff taxes. President Trump tweets that Walmart should just continue to eat the tariffs. That is pretty good evidence that tariffs cause inflation. Both the statement by Walmart, and the political posturing to subvert the reality of tariff tax costs, being ultimately passed onto consumers are affirmation of who pays for tariffs. Economics is a particularly imperfect art. As there are so many moving parts, and the underlying data is often not accurate in real time. But over time, and longer periods, Economics is relatively straightforward. Supply, Demand, market advantages and market drags as well as costs of borrowing are pretty much the whole ball of wax. What is really important to understand right now is that all the "inflation news is not that bad" is a combination of companies willingly not passing on increased costs, for fear of losing market share. (Something tough for smaller businesses). So those costs have been instead subtracted from profits temporarily, but in a manner IMPOSSIBLE to sustain. The tariff taxes will be passed on to the consumer, there is no other alternative. Or have publicly traded companies stock prices reflect large decreases in profitability and thus stock value decrease for investors. And smaller less diversified companies That is what is behind door number two. In all honesty you are going to have the companies that can, will try to hold off increasing prices as long as they can. Trying to find a temporary balance of door number 1, and not giving guidance specifics on their likely result As the last to blink may actually gain market share from those who blink sooner on passing on tariff taxes. But over time more and more of the cost will simply be passed onto the consumer and shifted back into the bottom line. Unless of course you think business folks just let their profit margins erode permanently? So for a while it is possible that things "are not that bad" because of that early profit eating tax absorption. But that is not sustainable. Unfortunately for the mortgage writing industry this means the Fed is going to wait and see. And when they wait, they will see... inflation. Because when you add a tax to the cost of goods sold, it cannot always be absorbed solely from a businesses profit. Of course maybe a lot of companies have a shit ton of excess profit they can allocate to whatever tariff tax costs they will face? 😉 But like I said before, when Scott Bessent is calling up Walmart, and the President is telling a company to eat the tariffs? That tells me that the same people saying that tariff taxes are not inflationary, know sure as hell they are! Somebody HAS to eat the new additional cost of goods. That person is the consumer of those goods.
  5. Well... is this actually a joke about driving out of Houston on Memorial day weekend? But the places to go list... that is one long ass motherfucker....
  6. My buddy bought a nice condo at Clines Landing in Port A. Their insurance has skyrocketed, and they are also losing revenue from their small marina area. Deepening the channel for Super tankers, has the result of sending gnarly surge waves knocking the shit out of ther marina area. I think the old rental income was in the $60K a year range, now $6K?. I think they are now upside down on price. If forget how badly underfunded Florida's insurer of last resort is. Seems like a couple years ago it has like 17% of the reserves to cover a major storm.
  7. Low interest rates can only hold you in your home by choice. And some folks don't have a choice over time. We could stay here until those "two steps" got too big one day. Of course having my escrow increase enough because of taxes and insurance to bump my monthly note up nearly 9%, means my low interest rate got expense eclipsed this year. So low rate with skyrocketing insurance (taxes lesser) burden, perhaps rising annually? Then the lower rate on the larger asset for us might mean, it's time to bail and downsize. Now if the house keeps appreciating. Then those escrow expenses don't seem as bad, but still even 5% annual increases in taxes and insurance weren't in the envisioned future budgetary plan. I think rising insurance costs are going to be something that going forward is going to have a greater influence on the RE market in general. Just one more suck on affordability. Hell I will be having to do deals until they put me in the grave, just to keep up with my increased insurance costs. SO - for you guys writing mortgages, are you seeing a rise in insurance costs, when you doing your qualifying due diligence as a percentage of costs? Just curious. Or does USAA just hate me... 😉
  8. Think of all the folks that should have closed at 7.05% over the last few weeks. Instead they were (irrationally in my mind) waiting for rates to fall. A lot of folks in the Mortgage industry also thought rates would fall. So the folks writing the mortgages, and the folks taking them on both had forward looking optimism on rates falling back to prior levels. The sooner folks start selling the lows 7's as the best you may see for several years, and that the best bet is to buy now, perception is reality. The low rates are not coming back. Unless the economy tanks, and that's a whole different set of problems for RE. But I would be selling to prospective buyers is that homestead price inflation has historically overrun the cost of financing. No guarantee, but that's what history says longer term. That's why so many folks can do cash out refi's a few years down the road. But you may look back and that 7.125% rates were something that you wish you could get in July...
  9. You are going to wish you pulled over sooner. That drive around the horn to the Panhandle is a monotonous mofo with all the pine trees. Pensacola might have been my choice. HaHa- I remember a La Quinta on the bay at I-10 and Scenic Highway that might have been the culprit. I drive pretty fast, and a couple years ago, average 71.5 mph (Including stops!!!) on a trip from Destin to Austin. If I could only convince the entire world that the left last is THE FUCKING PASSING LANE, I could really fly...
  10. well then... I just can't help myself...
  11. I told my wife to reach out to a friend of her mother's who has a 2/2? (maybe 3/2) in an small condo complex we looked at buying a unit in years ago as a starter. Almost all those units are two story, but they all have a large dining/living area that would be big enough to have large meals. Main thing is it's a single story, with two car garage! Perfect for downsize and very close to where we live now. A move to that place might be the one where we would rent our current home, and make the downsize. OR just sell, and take the gain tax free. And to be honest... the wall noise won't be an issue as you go deaf... 😉 But yes something to be able to lock and leave without a lot of upkeep if we are traveling.
  12. Funny - after seeing that via my insurance and property tax increases my payment went up almost exactly 10 percent. My wife was more startled than I was, but damn when we have this thing paid off, it may be impossible to stop a steady increase in insurance costs. But yes - it's a great vehicle if 1) IF you know about it 2) you can make good improvement/design decisions 3) you are willing to buy a home that NEEDS fixing up. 4) are willing to move a few times. So would you agree that probably less than 10% of first time home buyers have no idea about the tax free equity exclusions? Or maybe a better question might be, How many of you were aware of the potential tax free gains possible, when you bought your first home?
  13. My memory was that $60 was sort of the breaking point for smaller independents for additional exploration. But wasn't sure if advances in Technology might have pushed that number lower? I just remember meeting a lot of folks in Corpus when I was remodeling a foreclosure we bought. I was just wondering if all the production folks down there were going to be able to keep their jobs or not at $60 a barrel? None of those guys working on/off shifts seemed to save much if any of their money. But they had a good time on their time off!
  14. My SIL started training, as he said, his replacement I think late August last year. Shell has been a great company for him, but like I told him as a kid who grew up in O&G, be ready to pull the emergency cord anytime past 50 years old. He's smart. They are banking, and serious savers. Ultimately the only thing preventing a lot more off shore engineering is the language barrier. I don't think he is thrilled about $60 a barrel oil. If things go that way. I assume Eagle Ford is still viable at $60?
  15. You can want anything. But Trump is doing what he promised, and actions thus far, are about the scenario I predicted last fall. Tariff inflationary pressures hamstringing the fed, and big increase in US debt via legislation coming down the pipeline. These actions are not going to be conducive for bond holders to ask for less interest, for a risker investment. So yep, stuck like chuck.
  16. The smile says it all! Yeah - I remember hooking into a Jack a bit larger than that one off the beach in Port A right after Harvey, when I was trying to help a buddy line up some contractors. I was the only guy fishing on the beach and set out my first surf bait right at 7:30 am, bit before I could set up second rodgot him on the beach about 8:45. I thought I had come sort of world record when I could not move it over the sand bars. Sucker was foul hooked on that bottom back fin. nothing as fun as having a jack rip drag...
  17. Anyone know why Soundhound (SOUN) is spiking today? +20% on the day?
  18. Yeah - that sucks. In that he just wants to fade out and it will all end up falling on you. My Suggestion is get hospice involved right now. If he has any objections, explain this is to help you not him. AND - they may be able to do things like get him bathed. If he is not going to wear the vest let the hospital know and return it. I understand your frustration. I am STILL dealing with the results of not listening to me when had the listened.... layers upon layers of better outcome. It is laugh or cry, and often both at the hilarity and darkness of certain moments. But look into Hospice. -------- I did not realize how long it had been since I posted on this thread. But my mom passed days after my last post in August of last year. Hospice was amazing, and so was the Neptune Society. Can't recommend both highly enough. The good news is my Dad is doing really well. He actually told my BIL he really enjoys living at The Enclave. He has always been a oiner and I think it helped move past my mothers death. He still has dreams with her most every night so he likes that. He got the place to get some loaner pedometers and has started some sort of walking club. He is well outside the norm, and is kicking ass in all honesty. But it's just fucking hard sometimes. My sister has not been remotely the help I thought or expected, so there is that. But that is everyone's situation on this thread I imagine. Do the best you can with your folks. And try to find a good hospice place as early as possible. You may not be ready, but having a phone number to call of somebody you have interviewed are have a great recommendation on will give you peace of mind during the decline. Mainly there are a shit ton of things they can help you with once they are on hospice care.
  19. Already did. I can be right long term and wrong short term, it's happened before and it cost me. Can't fight momentum and exuberance, despite what I see coming. My Dad just told me with all the fantastic news with tariffs, along with impending peace in the Middle East and Ukraine the market is going on a multi-year run to the moon! For me I will likely give back about double what I made on PLTR, this AM in all likelihood. Or worse depending on the drop. I'm still mostly cash, but FOMOing today. Longer term I still see inflation hamstringing the fed, and rates not receding to where they will need to be to add another big chunk onto the debt/deficit. It will be interesting to see the appetite for US retailers to bite off 30% in additional expenses on china imports. You have to assume some retailers are going to have to start paying the fees, or potential have the problem of empty shelves and no income. The costs will be passed on to US consumers, and this is going to take more time. But it's coming, and inevitable. PS- seeing some of the surges in retailers may give me an opportunity shortly to the downside.
  20. Well last of my long position disappeared Friday when my PLTR shares all closed ITM on the covered calls I did. But can't cry over 12% return in under 3 weeks. If only I could repeat that over and over. Of course all those gains are getting wiped out this AM as I bought back into UVIX before the Fed stood pat. Guess I will sit on those losses until at least the end of the week to see the inflation numbers. The exuberance for 30% tariffs on Chinese imports, is apparently priced in at a number 10% or lower? With the market looking for reductions past the apparent 30% tariffs for 90 days. So if the market is pricing in a tariff expense far below the 90 day cost. If you are businessman do you start bringing in the goods with that "new and improved" 30% tsriff rate? Do you pull your inventory out of the bonded warehouses and pay the tariff? Or do you hold pat waiting for the next pull back? And how does the market react when the inflation numbers start showing movement in the wrong direction? Anyhow- like I said so very many pages back. Would have been the most interesting spring ever to be taking Eco 301. Today it's risk on! Hope all you guys back big time today!
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  22. It's because I remember shit, and I'm old...I guess I thought the $250/500K was in addition! But much better to have the flexibility to make multiple homestead sales and convert some of that gain into tax free cash. But if you are young and willing to move around a couple times, and are handy remodeling, it's a great way to grow your net worth! Especially if you start off with this as a strategy. I was explaining this to a roofing guy who was young and explaining that hell he already had connections for the most expensive part of many remodels, a roof! And just knowing folks that can help you build shit can help turn that sweat equity into real equity. Looks like you might be able to take the deduction technically every 2 years + 1 day? Assuming closing on sale and purchase of homesteads at same time. But what is also interesting to me is that 5 year window. It opens up the ability to move to a new homestead and convert your existing homestead into a rental unit to benefit from more years of appreciation. While at the same time remodeling your new homestead. The we get the mortgage finance folks in on the game. And then you are using your homestead in combination with a BRRR strategy.
  23. Ok I stand corrected. I thought if you bought a homestead of equal or great value you could defer all the gain. I guess I wasn't contemplating exceeding the $500K cap when I actually thought about this a few years back. So the exclusion is the 121 Exclusion. According to Rocket I can use this every two years? This would be important to me, because if I were to talk the wife into making a homestead move, It would be to convert our current homestead into an income producing property, while I remodeled a new homestead. This is the scenario I am considering trying to pull off. I have a neighbor whose parents home has been vacant for a couple years. Full of Christmas hoarding crap. But she is needing to get some cash finally, and the property is in trust, and I was nervous about trying to buy the property from a trust. Mainly as I was going to give her almost nothing down, with a future balloon payment. Or interest only loan to keep my costs down by renovating. In this scenario I could convert my current homestead into a rental, thus opening the door for a future 1031 exchange. In this scenario my wife and I (filing jointly) could Sell the property (within the 2 or 5 years homestead 121 limitation) and take $500K cash out tax free, and defer any additional gain beyond that amount into a new investment property using the 1031 exchange. In essence converting the homestead residual cap gains into rental property equity, correct? HOWEVER - I thought I was limited in taking the 121 cap gain exclusion to once every 5 years? Rocket is saying once every two years?
  24. So if I buy my homestead for $500K and via appreciation it becomes worth $1.2 million. I cannot then sell the place for $1.2 million, buy a new homestead for $700K million and pocket the $500K exclusion? I thought as long as you put the rest of the gain back into your homestead, you could defer tax on that gain?
  25. I wish I knew when I was young about the 2 out of the last 5 year Homestead cap gain exclusion. Buy a fixer upper, fix it, refi to get cash back out, then rent it. Move into new homestead, that you remodel. Then sell first place, before, and refi the newly improved homestead. The 5 year clock starts ticking again on the second homestead. BUT you can only take the exemption once every 5 years. Where else can a married couple pick up that sort of tax free income? No place. But past $500,000 you are paying cap gains. Unless you roll all the non-excluded gain into a new homestead. Then there is no gain since that gain got rolled into the new homestead.
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