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Laxtonto

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Laxtonto

  1. And now the honeymoon is over... Going to be fun watch Bama eat their own
  2. Did you guys notice that r/CFB essentially made a clone of this and we’re pushing it on social media?
  3. Holy fuck.... the Rainey Street killer is a fucking ghost!
  4. It is all fun and political games until we trigger a full-on recession in the US and it cascades to the global markets. This is something that should have been a major priority at the cabinet level 12-18 months ago. The fact that nothing was done then and is being further exacerbated by inaction now is unacceptable. Being a rudderless lame duck now doesn't fix the fact that this is something that could have had some form of plan and intervention scenario in places months ago. My biggest complaint is that this is something as academics we have been discussing rather vehemently for the last 6 months or so. So it is not like this is a situation that has snuck up on anyone. It was a well-known point of concern for a long time. The problem was most didn't ever expect the complete abdication of action by the US government as a lead-up to the now-current work stoppage.
  5. Curious if all of this stuff they are taking from Lebanon isn't going to end up in the hands of the MEK back inside of Iran... I would laugh if Israel helped support a people's revolution in Iran with the weapons Iran smuggled to Lebanon to attack Israel.. .
  6. All of those tankers aren't up there alone... So once those missile launch bays open, all of those Israel aircraft will begin to launch JASSMs and other fun toys to look to collapse many of those entrenched deep mine launch positions.
  7. Maybe I am naive in asking, but how is Lebanon getting all of this weaponry from Iran and around the globe? And how is physically getting to Lebanon, with the various embargos in the region?
  8. It's an 80-day cooling period, so you are talking Dec 20th if it happened right now. It will take at least 3-5 business days to go through the steps to use Taft-Hartley though, which gets you to Christmas. The problem is that if you go to Taft-Hartley now, you will (further?) alienate the Teamsters, ULAW, and ILA. That would even potentially trickle down to other unions, which would be a political disaster in the Rust Belt states. Unfortunately, these are all moves that are only being viewed through the lens as a political item, knowing full well that they will have repercussions well past the election. The blame is, to some extent, on all parties involved at this point. The problem is that for the good of the country the "bad guy" in this scenario should have been the federal government. Unfortunately, instead of taking the hit and making it known well in advance that they would force a resolution through Taft-Hartley, the signals were instead that the government wasn't going to get involved. Now, the ILA knows that they can strike up until Nov 6th as leverage. Also this means the USMX knows what the expected maximum of how long they have to hold out until they could possibly see government intervention. So if you are USMX you start to do the math and figure out what the cost of 35 days of strikes will be to you and how much is that going to impact you long-term. So if you are the ports are you willing to move above your current offer, which moved right before the strike from 30% to a 50% raise over 6 years? If you are the ILA do you move off your position knowing that the 50% is now the floor the NRLB would consider as the negotiated settlement? The timing makes this such that there isn't a ton of reasons for either side to be willing to move off of their position. The whole situation is a misstep all the way around.
  9. I think people are underestimating the intelligence capital spent by Israel in all of this and why they keep grinding forward on the information they have. Like anything in that is perishable, information has a shelf life. Worst the ability to harvest that information is subject to whims of the environment around it. Israel has in effect expended most of their information resources to deliver a massive debilitating blow and now will be on the backside of the information curve as the means and sources used to gather that intelligence has been severely compromised in Lebanon and the rest of the Arab world. All around the Middle East you should see regime-wide security reviews, SOP shakeups, communication protocol changes, and a re-vetting of all personnel with access to sensitive people, locations, comms, and information. That is going to seriously hamper future intelligent gathering. What Israel has going for it is massive chaos in the leadership structure and a fear of communication devices, which will keep Lebanon and to some extent Iran from being organized and keep them reactionary. But like anything else, time will erode that advantage. Therefore Israel must achieve as many of its goals in Lebanon as possible to put Iran in a position that their proxies in Gaza and Lebanon are not viable to keep supporting and doing so puts them at more of a risk than the prestige loss by abandoning them.
  10. The day is upon us. What is worse there is limited coverage of this nationally and so tomorrow this is going to be wall to wall everywhere with people being surprised that it is happening. The problem is that neither side wants a good faith solution and so both sides can be entrenched with limited repercussions. The last major ILA strike lasted several months and the ULAW decided to not work any ship that was redirected. There is a strong chance that this will tie up both coasts for months and still lead to a quicker adoption of automation. Anything on the ports that the longshoreman don’t control will begin automation and there will be a concerted effort to chip away at what activities that have joint union control. This is going to be real ugly because I don’t really see either side wanting to budge and the current administration is hamstrung by the election. There are not any simple solutions to this one now, and so be prepared…
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