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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. Well, first I was unconcerned after losing to OSU, then I was lambasted for surrendering after a pretty terrible Week 2 performance. What I witnessed in the swamp today personally was about as bad as I’ve seen Texas physically whipped since that terrible September 11 performance against Arkansas’s in Year 1 of Sark. it’s Texas OU week and we are a cornered animal that’s wounded and desperate. All our goals are still in front of us if we don’t lose another game. This team, as it’s currently configured, could lose somewhere approaching…. Checks schedule… 7 more games. I think the worst part of it was that Arch wasn’t terrible like against OSU and UTEP, there were some calls that were really good (seriously Wingo- you couldn’t do any better than that with a wide open guy 20 yards from you?) but we just got basically physically whipped by a team that’s probably going to lose 7 games and refused to take advantage of the myriad of ways they tried to give the game away to us because their coach is a low grade moron. OU probably sort of sucks especially without their big time transfer QB. If we want to keep this season from being a gigantic smoking crater we are going to have to play eleventy billion percent better than we did today. let’s do it.
  2. King tuck in playoff form. 0-3 with a k.
  3. If I was trading Pena I’d want TOR with no control and less prospects but ok- that might be worth it.
  4. I also had us trading Walker, melton and Mathews and meyers and signing an ace, so… pretty sure if we did all the shit I suggested we’d be set up to be a playoff team and better in years to come. if we trade Pena I’d rather keep Dubon and platoon him and Urias at SS and keep Correa at 3rd. What would you be looking at trading Pena for- a TOR guy in his walk year and a top 100 prospect?
  5. I didn’t even see that. I’d still give him 30/75 as an extension. He gets the Bobby Bonilla treatment if he wants it!
  6. That would only take him through his age 33 season. I don’t think Cubans lie about their age- their med system keeps records. I know people always say this but I think that’s Dominicans that are notorious for that not Cubans.
  7. In his last 11 starts of the year he gave up 24 Earned runs. That’s a tougher pitching environment. He basically takes the ball every 5 days, puts up innings, and is only 30 years old. I would imagine he’s looking for at least 6/150 i just fact checked myself, and Spotrac (feel like they are usually low) says 6/138 and athletic says 7/178 so I’m in the ballpark. I might give that to him. I’d rather do that with him than Framber after that melt down the last 2 months.
  8. You are pretty convinced nobody will value him as a top 5 hitter in the game. He looked like that after he got his hand fixed. I think you are a prisoner of the moment with that and there are absolutely teams that would still value him that way. If there’s not I haven’t seen ANYONE say you move him just to move him. If they said that it would be silly. There’s only one way to find out how the market would value him though. My other suggestion would be to offer him a 30/75 extension. If his maker is really that depressed around the league maybe he’s got the same concerns and would do that deal. of course, all of this suggests you have a medical staff you can trust that isn’t hammered dog shit terrible at their jobs. We don’t, so that’s kind of a problem.
  9. I have ALWAYS said that a managers number 1 job is to not piss off/bum out the team he’s leading and make it a pain to come to work every day. That’s true. I’d be completely opposed to hiring a dickhead that made everyone miserable (looking at you Terry Collin and maybe Jimy Williams). That said, that’s not his only job and he fails basically everything beyond that. The fact that there would be zero interest in him (and that like 5 teams he interviewed with were like- nope) speaks really really loudly.
  10. I mean, depends on the offer. I’d probably trade my wife and kids for the right offer but it would have to be pretty spectacular. I’d trade you to the rangers thread for a half eaten ham Sandwhich. Yordan probably falls somewhere in between. 😛
  11. Espada is such an easy call- if he got fired tomorrow would he have a single interview for head job anywhere? No! then what are you doing having him as your manager if that’s true (and it is) Put another way in the same light: What is it that he brings to the table as a plus guy?
  12. Yordan and meyers? Ok- 5 and a couple interesting guys? If you moved both of them that would be about what you’d expect to net. You think the Yankees or dodgers wouldn’t give up like 4 of their top 6 or 7 players for Yordan? Giants maybe? Hell Seattles stacked in the minor leagues and they are cheap. Milwaukee could say- this is the best position player we could ever get and we get him for cheap- especially if they get really close to winning it all this year but fall short. andrew wants to trade Hunter Brown bc he’s convinced it’s an existential certainty he misses the better part of 2 of the next 3 years.
  13. I would love absolutely all of those 3 guys as managers.
  14. I always thought of the Angels of Trout and Ohtani as stars and scrubs. I always thought the Astros super power was they never played a bunch of (any really) scrubs during the golden years (in addition to developing pitching guys out of thin air). This year it got scrubby b/c of absurd amount of injuries, many of which are of the variety you wouldn't expect.
  15. My dream offseason (I think): Out: Yordan, Walker & Melton, Meyers, Framber, Chas, Dubon, Trammell, LMJ + Matthews (90M in 2025 dollars out). Rationale- as a barely top 100 player Matthews has 15-20M in historical surplus value. LMJ has 1 year 18M left. Maybe he can be rehabbed. Christin Walker's contract is probably about 10M upside down. That's about how much Surplus value Melton has. In: Alonzo (3/120 or 8/200), Sale (3/100) or Cease (6/175), 6 top 100 prospects, Caratini (2/20), 1 comp pick. (70M or so in). Rationale: ALonzo hits bombs and plays everyday. He's not as good a hitter as Yordan, but he plays everyday. Sale is still filthy, Cease is filthy. Yordan and Meyers you use to rebuild the farm system. Caratini is perfect backup catcher/PH/part time DH and a good fit here. Resulting roster: Diaz, Caratini, Alonso, Paredes, Pena, Correa, Altuve, Cole, Smith, Sanchez, Dezenzo, Urias, Whitcomb. Tell Smith he needs to learn to play CF and pull the ball in the air and he can become a star. If not he can platoon with Cole in CF, Sanchez/Dezenzo platoon in RF and Altuve mixes in at LF some. No more 2b for altuve- that's paredes and Urias for the most part, very little LF for him- mostly DH. That's someting like 30 War on the position player side if they are all healthy. Pitching be fine if you add a Sale or Cease to what we already have. That team is under the Luxury tax and the farm is top 5 or 8 in baseball.
  16. After the very good trade deadline Dana had it should pretty clearly get better in that we shouldn't have to give hardly any of those 1000 ab's to guys that suck. Think about it- if we had just had to give like 900 instead of 1000 we are in the playoffs pretty clearly. Figure on next year having 500 or fewer AB's that go to guys that can't hit (if we stay reasonably healthy) and we are good.
  17. I agree with all of this except for the stars and scrubs comment. Yeah- we had a lot of scrubs that got major AB's this year, but that's b/c we just got absolutely hammered by the injury bug and that's just going to be a thing that happens. I think you are right that Dubon is gone but tell me who the scrub is from this group of 13 (what I think will be the opening day position player roster: Diaz, Caratini, Walker, Paredes, Pena, Correa, Urias, Yordan, Altuve, Meyers, Sanchez, Smith, Dezenzo or Matthews or Melton or Cole. I mean, the scrub is probably the 13th guy but they at least have upside. I don't see a scrub in the lineup- if anything I think the problem is lack of stars b/c it's really just Yordan you can count on to be a star (and he's made of glass) though Pena, Paredes, Diaz, Correa and Smith if he retools the swing stuff and learns from crashing into the rookie wall could all have the opportunity to be stars. Or Jose with a bounce back year. But, I see basically 1 star, 5 above average players, 6 average players and 1 lotto ticket as likely from that group of 13. The biggest benefit of that lineup (if all healthy) would be that it's deep and absent any guys that can't play. Now- if we have to get deeper than that 15 for real playing time then that's a real problem b/c there's nothing in the minors I want to see on the position player side in 2026. There are a fair bit of pitchers I'm interested in seeing. And we will probably see them all as arms get shredded.
  18. Assuming you have a pitcher who doesn't explode his elbow or fuck up his shoulder. So, we'd need 3 JAGs to replicate that.
  19. Sure. That's why I'd sign an ace (it would be Sale). I laid out optmist case scenario for Ullola, Blubaugh, Javier and Arrighetti. If you sign an ace you need one of those guys to hit in a big way and 2 of them to not be terrible. That's a reasonable bet, to my way of thinking. What you don't have is a hammer other than Brown. If you are going to win the WS you need 3 or 4 stud arms (2 SP and 2 back end of the bullpen guys) and you need 4 or 5 other dudes you can trust. What I see is 3 studs and plenty enough to pick from where I think by playoff time we can fill in the other 4 or 5 dudes you can trust. I'm just not worried about it. You are missing one of the studs. Go get one.
  20. My Budget as of now: SP: 75M Brown: 7M (arb 1) Javier: 13M (2/42 left on deal) Ullola- 1M Arrighetti- 1M Blubaugh- 1M Dead Money (LMJ)- (18M- last year) Injured List- 2M FA- 30M Bullpen: 30M Hader: 19M (3/57 left) Abreu: 5 M (Arb 3) No FA- all minimum type guys: Infield (ish): 95M Diaz- 5M (arb 1) Walker- 20M (2/40 left) Altuve- 25M (4/92 left) Paredes (10M- arb 3- he's super 2 so 2 more go rounds) Correa: 21 M (It's complicated... guaranteed 3/61M) Pena: 9M (arb 2) Urias: 5M (arb 3) OF/Backup catcher: 40M Yordan: 19M (3/80 left) Meyers: 5M (arb 2) Sanchez: 7M (arb 3 but super 2, so just like Paredes) Smith: 1M Dezenzo: 1M Backup Catcher- 7M. Gone (trade or non-tender) Dubon, Chas, Caratini (hope he comes back for the 7M- I'd go 2/20 probably), Trammell Total: 240M (spending 30M on a FA pitcher and 7-10M on a backup catcher). The tax line is like 244M but you have to factor in like 17M for extra bennies. So- the actual answer for how much they have to spend (if they non-tender Dubon and Chas and let Caratini go) on FA pitching and backup catcher is something like 17M. I'd spend 40 and do something like trade Walker and Melton to AZ for nothing. Maybe Colorado. Walker's contract isn't that upside down. My 26 man roster would look something like this: Sale, Brown, Javier, Ullola, Blubaugh, Arrighetti, Hader, Abreu, Souza, Okert, King, Murray, Santa Diaz, Paredes, Altuve, Pena, Correa, Sanchez, Meyers, Smith, Yordan Bench- Urias, Dezenzo, Caratini, Matthews If you want to non-tender Sanchez b/c you believe in Cole I'm fine with that. He and Dezenzo can platoon. Manager- Hinch. His contract is up. Allegedly he's got multiple houses in Houston and would be VERY interested in a reunion.
  21. We've got more internal options than you think, imo. Hunter Brown is established as a Cy Young level guy now that's beyond a doubt a thing that exists. Cristian Javier looked fine to me- his velocity was back and good, he was missing bats with the invisiiball again. 3.65 FIP is just fine. He's a guy you will be fine with starting in the playoffs. Arrighetti, if his elbow is structurally sound (they say it is- but you never know with those guys) is just fine as a guy you can trust to be a quality pitcher. Blubaugh, I think, showed out as to why I was so excited about him this offseason. I think it was a big problem that we didn't go to him earlier in the year and give him a bigger role. I'd have had him up with the big league club all year from when he made his debut. Ullola has Cy Young ceiling to me. I feel about him the same way I felt about Hunter Brown. I really like guys who keep the ball on the ground and miss bats. If anyone can get away with walks it's that type of guy. I think that's a guy that you should feel pretty comfortable giving you innings at a qualiy level. Jason Alexander- What a wonderful memory that guy will always have about the summer of George. 4-2 with a 3.66 era 14 games with 12 of them being quality apperances. I think the team was something like 11-3 in games he pitched. He would have been an all time legendary deep cut guy (like Brandon Backe or the great Bill Spiers) if we'd have made the playoffs and he'd have had a moment there. We should immediately forget everything he did well there and consider it all fools gold and make no plan for him being a part of the plans going forward. LMJ- tell him he's a RP or not on the team. Tell him he's going to throw curve balls until his elbow explodes 1 inning at a time or be DFA'd. And then if that doesn't work so be it. Not part of the plan. AAA Fodder (guys I would trust down there to come up on a temporary basis- like 3 turns through the rotation). JP France Colton Gordon TJ candidates that should be back sometime in July: Ronel Blanco- Don't know that I'm buying on him ever replicating 2024 season, but fine with him as a BOR starter Wesneski- DItto Blanco. Guys that are out for 2026 Walter- too bad- of all the guys that came up from the Law Firm he had the stuff that made me think he was going to be ok. Luis Garcia- Have to think he's going to get DFA'd. Makes no sense to do anything other than that or sign him to like a 2 year deal for 3M or something- but I'd be opposed to that. Intruiging guys in the minor leagues: Ethan Pecko- I'd probably like to see him get the entire year in AAA next year, but I'd go to him right now before JP France or Gordon if it was a matter of replacing a guy for the year Alonzo Tredwell- Big Dude that uses his leverage to shorten distance to home plate as opposed to thorw hard- but he had a really interesting last month of the season. Very young in an innings pitched sense if not age as he was hurt out of college. I'm interested. Jose Fleury- I've heard they like him. Who knows. TLDR Summary: You have an ace in Hunter Brown, you have a guy I'd trust in a playoff series right now in Cristian Javier, you have Arrighetti, Blubaugh and Ullola who I'm excited to see pitch as regulars in MLB, then you have 3 guys at AAA in Alexander, Gordon and France that probably won't shit the bed, 2 guys that should be back from TJ next year and then 3 or 4 intruiging propsects that could pitch in 2026. I think we have BOR and emergency guys covered. I think an Ace makes sense. Chris Sale, Dylan Cease, Ranger Suarez would be my free agent list of guys. If I can't get one of them I think I'd pass on any FA pitcher. You should have up to about 35M to spend and be able to stay under the tax line.
  22. Eh. Fun to have the first 3 numbers on the lotto ticket and then dream.
  23. Ha! not saying it’s guaranteed or anything, but yeah.
  24. Cignetti is old, but if that doesn’t bother you he’s top of my list if I’m a blue blood and ok with a 5 year type hire.
  25. Morgan Ensberg! I don’t know. Someone smart who’s not a dickhead. A that asking too much? Probably I guess.
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