Jump to content

Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
  • Posts

    11856
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Dbeasy

  1. Here is my wag under Trump. We all know Trump will do anything and everything to juice the economy for the next four years, so that he can take credit for it. But, there are conflicting policies right now that would significantly hurt the economy. He will definitely extend the tax cuts. That’s a given. But letting Elon loose to reduce spending by any significant amount? The only thing they will do is make sure the spending cuts take effect four to five years from now, so that it doesn’t torpedo the economy in the next four years. He will then make a bunch of speeches about getting government spending and deficits under control while not actually delivering anything. At this point Elon will realize he’s been snookered. Elon actually believes he will accomplish something. To be fair, they will fix social security and medicare by extending the retirement age, reducing benefits, and modestly increasing the SS cutoff point. Then, he will implement some lame tariffs with a bunch of loopholes to make it seem like he did something when he won’t have. Same with immigration. Same with every policy. Just like his first term, he will talk a big game but actually not deliver any real impact. So then inflation will creep up because he’s really done nothing. He will blame Biden and let inflation run a little hot, which it needs to do in order for debt as a percentage of gdp to get under control. By year 3-4 of his administration, the inflation effects will put the economy in danger, finally slowing inflation and forcing rates cuts. The rate cuts will get him through the end of his presidency. He will have served another four years and really not done anything other than benefit from the current government overspending that is partially responsible for driving the economy. Our debt level will be scary large for the next administration.
  2. I love what the OTF guys are doing, but my focus in life is to shit on Finebaum whenever the opportunity presents itself. It's a vow I took when Texas to the SEC was announced.
  3. Finebaum is an SEC dick licking sycophant. Who gives a shit what that ass has to say about anything. Every word out of his mouth is based on an agenda.
  4. Ya more accurately, spending growth will potentially be lower than its otherwise might be, maybe. Or maybe not.
  5. This should be no surprise. I’ve been hinting at this for months. The yield curve was inverted and it MUST un-invert, which it finally did this week. I’ve personally felt that this switch in Fed thinking about 2025 was definitely going to happen because inflation data is still a bit high and the economy is still relatively strong. But things will likely change next year, and create new Fed views. If you dig deeper into the inflation data from the most recent report, it’s actually very good. Most categories are down into the 2% range. That leaves the incoming administration as the main influence for the economy and inflation. There is a ton of uncertainty over that. Trump has been throwing out all sorts of policies. My personal opinion is that excess government spending is the main inflationary item, so even if Trump uses tariffs and other inflationary policies, it will be offset by significant cuts in government spending, leading to a slowing of the economy and less inflation pressure. But because his policies are so radical, it could have very unintended effects, such as re-ignition of inflation. If I were a home buyer I would buy now. Why? Because not owning a home in a higher inflation environment is a financially very bad decision. Two, rates could end up higher to fight unintended inflation. Three, even if you lock in higher rates now, you can refinance later. This unidirectional option is a powerful financial tool for borrowers. In the tech company discussion above, tariffs aren’t the main influence on employment. All tech companies keep excess employment during good economic times. Why? They are hitting their numbers and want to spend money on various less critical projects and products to drive future growth. When times get tough, they all cut. It’s a formula used by every single tech company out there. For those companies that are growing spectacularly, obviously they don’t reduce headcount, but they do slow hiring of planned growth. That could be the scenario with Apple. Austin has priced in the opening of the Apple campus and a certain number of employees. That growth plan may change.
  6. Thank goodness I moved everything I owned to United healthcare yesterday.
  7. We’ve just been very unlucky with the previous coaches: 1. Barnes had personal problems that led to on-court lack of success which led to his firing. He’s got those issues under control and back to winning again. 2. Smart had personal problems that led to on-court lack of success which led to his firing. He’s got those issues under control and back to winning again. 3. Beard had personal problems that led to his firing. His new destination doesn’t care if they are under control or not because they are winning.
  8. Same. First he had a lazy post dripping with what could be interpreted as sarcasm because of his laziness, then whined. Negged.
  9. 52-80, thinking to himself: “Even though I’ve had my ass handed to me multiple times on this thread, and the very first portal transfer to Texas disproved my entire thesis, I really think that my viewpoint is right and I will continue to argue it, no matter how dumb I look to the entire board.”
  10. It’s seems like the cost of a portal player is way more expensive than a high school recruit.
  11. It’s so wonderful to wake up this morning and realize that Texas’ three previous coaches are all ranked, including number 1, and Texas isn’t. And they’ve lost to unranked teams. Sigh.
  12. Fuck the LIV guys! Hahaha
  13. This is uncomfortably close to this:
  14. Why doesn’t everyone just admit they don’t know shit about fuck?
  15. I’ve been holding funds in hsa’s for years, invested in stocks. That is all growing tax free, with the ability to withdraw it tax free as long as it’s for medical expenses. I keep a folder of all our healthcare receipts to ensure we’ve got coverage of the dollars if and when we withdraw it. Of course, healthcare expenses become significant as you age so we are constantly having new expenses that should cover the balance in the hsa. The only downside is that I couldn’t put a ton of money in the hsa’s over the years, so there isn’t a lot of tax value. For me, having the accounts is a hassle as compared to the tax benefit. If someone could build up say $75k-100k+ in an hsa it would be a great investment vehicle. It would earn $5k-$10k per year tax free.
  16. I’ve been an ardent advocate for shooting down drones, mainly because my pheasant hunting has gotten more difficult due to declining numbers. I need new targets. I fully support drone bird season.
  17. I hear you, but caring and taking small steps is the only way for me to deal with the next four years of shit. 💩
  18. Let’s just talk about the first step: caring. Because there are a thousand different things you could do if you are fed up with corruption and/or incompetence. But as several of you have shown, you failed the first step. I’d like to hope that it’s because you’re frustrated, because I damn sure am as well. But for a few of you, it’s just pure hypocrisy, unfortunately. One example of something I’ve done on another topic (that will have no effect I’m sure) is to write my congressmen about the recent ACA changes and the importance of fixing the current issues. It will probably be a waste of time, but if 50,000 other people also wrote their congressmen, maybe something would get done. I refuse to let corruption and incompetence go completely unchecked. My New Year’s resolution is to take any small steps I can to push back on it.
  19. We talked about this two years ago. If a product like that became “the” marketplace for nil deals, over time the schools and players and marketers would get shit on by the software company, just like Uber, Ticketmaster, and every other monopoly / oligopoly marketplace. Not saying this will happen because their product isn’t great, but schools, marketers, and athletes need to think hard about how they are going to connect.
  20. I understand the anger. It’s very frustrating. But we simply can’t let the country go to hell because politicians want to make either bad decisions or corrupt decisions just because other politicians do it. One of the few things this country had going for it was the fact that its corruption and major decisions were at one point better than many (most) other countries around the world. It also gives ammunition for the corrupt to say that everyone is either corrupt or incompetent. All of these pardons are bad decisions. Period. And as citizens we should never just accept bad decisions.
  21. What the hell is going on with John Fetterman?
  22. Don’t the assets in a trust have to pay taxes when passed to descendants unless kept in a trust? Whereas assets outside the trust are stepped up in basis?
×
×
  • Create New...