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UTGrad98

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Everything posted by UTGrad98

  1. China just said it will fight to the end on trumps latest tariff threat. Premarket up an additional 0.5% after hearing the news. As we were heading down to the 20% drop this news would have sent the market reeling. Now that we are rebounding, the market will "shake off" the news or "take it in stride". Don't fight the money and the algorithms. We are supposed to bounce at 20% because we always have. Bad news and fundamentals be damned. Only good news moves the market for a while now.
  2. Notice how trumps 50% China tariff announcement today didn't move the markets much. It wasn't time for them to go down anymore.
  3. Is the last hour of trading going to look like the first hour? Things are starting to get interesting again.
  4. This sell off is following the same pattern as other sell offs and yes the BIG technicals like the 10% and 20% drops tend to have bounces that last at least a week or 2 if not longer. I remember COVID analysts were saying the selling in Feb-Mar 2020 was nothing like how their models had predicted and everyone was getting run over left and right and technicals didnt matter. Lets see what happens here. Trump can put out tweets that move markets 5% in either direction. It wont be a straight line but I think we can bounce around here and test the 480 low a couple more times maybe even going lower a couple % later in the week. Trumps 50% escalating tariffs to China will be a market mover if it goes into effect Wednesday and the response from Europe will be a market mover too. I think we know some of how the market will move if we sell into the close today or if we hold around the 500 SPY level. If we sell into the close I think there is a chance we follow the 10% bounce from a few weeks ago where we test it 2 or 3 times then fall below 480 for capitulation and then slowly climb back into the summer. The thing is the VIX is so fucking high right now, today just may be the day we bottom for now and we climb back up to the 5 day and possibly the 200 day moving average. Which puts us back in the 570s say by June.
  5. I'm still in awe of the 30 seconds after the rumor came out that we went from 490 to 522. The amount of money to be able to do that in 30 seconds is humbling and scary.
  6. What a fucking day and its only been 1 hour since the market opened.
  7. I have never seen a jump like that in 1 minute before
  8. Hong Kong getting in on the action now
  9. And please understand, I am not enjoying this. Im just fascinated by once in a lifetime events like this and enjoy commenting on them. Im also positioned quite conservatively so I dont feel the anxiety some of you are feeling so its easier for me to comment on technical bounces, what I think will happen etc. Speaking of what I think will happen tomorrow. Im gonna take my shot and say if we hold above 480 the rest of the night, we will sell off hard in the first 5-30 minutes, flushing out the panic sellers, then rally the rest of the day and we close above 500.
  10. Even with the Japan rout earlier tonight, we still look to be holding steady. Ive got a big decision tomorrow if we hold above SPY 480 overnight. If I wake up and its at like 460 ill just watch the fireworks but if we hold here, I really do believe there is a chance for a bounce. 480-490 was the target range for a lot of folks.
  11. I was supposed to work tomorrow but I called in and moved my shift to later in the week. Whatever happens tomorrow, I have to see it first hand. If we didnt have a drop greater than 7% during covid, I have a hard time seeing us going below 7% tomorrow but this isnt covid so what do I know. Regardless, it should be fascinating to see it unfold.
  12. Japan with some crazy movement right now. down 8.9% currently but bouncing around like a mother fucker.
  13. I remember this was asked during covid but there are no circuit breakers in overnight trading correct?
  14. Aaaaaaaaaaand cancelled.... Ill see where we are tomorrow morning. Futures flew right on by my limit order 5 minutes after opening. Its really no man's land after the 20% drop. Just throw a dart, or be in the know. If we are still around 480 SPY when the market opens Ill put some money in but not as much as I was going to. This is some Covid level selling. Just day after day of 5% drops. And overnight futures were crushed. Same thing now.
  15. What I'm looking at is if we hit Spy 490 and 480 in overnight trading or not. I just can't see us flying right through 20% without a bounce.
  16. I dont know but it comes very fast when it does happen. And likely right after the worst possible news hits and when every instinct you have says only an idiot would invest in this market right now. That's when the bottom hits. So good luck with that. Im gonna try and time it though so let's fucking go !
  17. Man, nothing I wrote comes across well and I took 2 cracks at it. I hope it all works out. Being 51 and raising a kid is tough for anyone let alone being a head football coach at Texas. Hopefully they have the support they need from CDC and the administration. I'm sure they do.
  18. Im trying to think about it as though Im manipulating the market and what would I do to achieve my goals of a lower interest rate and saving face from tariffs. I would think once the S and P hits bear market territory, things will quiet down here. There will probably be "deals" made with some strategic countries to boost the market up. But that still doesnt get rates lower. So then I would ratchet up the tariff talk again and push us down sub 20% and maybe to 30% drop and hope for a recession in quarters 2 and 3 with the Fed lowering rates to 2.5% and then refinancing our debt. I think this is one of those years where we get an October bottom. Its just moving so fast right now I dont see how its possible to lengthen that out 6 more months. I think the wild card and next domino to fall is Europe retaliations. That should provide us with our next short term floor, probably this week. Then we rise up for a few weeks giving everyone a false sense of security before the real economic numbers from the fall out and inflation start to come out. Then we start our final retreat lower during the summer.
  19. I set a significant chunk of my net worth in at around a 493 limit buy order just now. You are right. I am super tempted to buy at 500. Even during Covid, we hit circuit breakers 4 times. Each time it hit, we shot up....for a while. Sadly one of the pharmacists had an emergency doctors appt and I have to go cover for him a couple hours from 1p-3pm. I wonder if that will end up being a good thing for me. Part of me thinks maybe he doesnt have a doctors appt....
  20. LOL we are 9 points away from a triggered circuit breaker at 499 SPY.
  21. I agree but I have been wrong so many times in terms of what I think would be a rational direction for the market to go. Hell, we may go all the way up to the 5 day moving average today before we go back down.
  22. It looks like 510 was the bounce. Already back up to 519. Too uncertain for me to jump in. To fall this far before a bounce at the 15% down level isnt a good sign for markets.
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