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956 Worldwide

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Everything posted by 956 Worldwide

  1. Another key point: if an asylum applicant adds dependents to the application, the asylum case stands or falls on the decision for the applicant. You can’t pass off the claim to a spouse or child for another bite, a denied asylum claim means everyone on the petition is ordered removed. It’s gonna be super likely that this guy’s app got pulled out of the pile for some expedited attention.
  2. Their visas don’t have to be revoked. They are already invalid and were once the asylum claim was filed. The asylum claim gets them a stay of removal while their asylum claim was pending. Shit gets misreported in the press and and it’s complicated. Without records we don’t have, it’s impossible to tell but here is the likely sequence of events: 1. Under expedited removal they will be found to have committed fraud or misrepresentation to gain entry. 2. A sped-up “credible fear removal” will be conducted, which is required when you want to use expedited removal on someone who has a pending asylum claim. 3. Removal A few more points, yes family members of terrorists are removed or deported all the time, and visas revoked. Open question is whether this dude is a “terrorist.” Second, yes it’s almost certain that they used fraud to obtain their visas. In fact, for consular purposes it’s considered prima facie fraud if you file a claim or try to adjust status within a certain window of obtaining a visa or being granted entry on a tourist visa, as you are REQUIRED to affirm that your intentions are to stay for a short term. The fraud is baked in. Third, a genuine asylum claim can overcome that fraud but a bullshit one cannot. Fourth, this guy’s claim has a high chance of being bullshit. Many, many are. There are 3.6 million in the pipeline and for decades there hasn’t been much scrutiny. Cases from Egypt and authoritarian states are especially bullshit because in nearly all cases, people with a real specific fear of being targeted can’t get passports and aren’t allowed to leave. Worst case you can (likely) say about this family is that their dad’s actions brought a level of scrutiny to their pending claims and actions to get to the United States that could have been avoided if this guy had kept his head down and not firebombed people. But the treatment they are getting likely completely justified under existing law. I’d expect a similar, but less aggressively public, response from most admins.
  3. What all these attacks has (along with the attack on the Cole, or for that matter Pearl Harbor) was that they hit the adversary in a way that was unexpected where they thought they were safe. And there are a lot of lessons here that are valid for us. We have a lot of vulnerable airfields, including places we are or would want to be in the Pacific. Our HUMINT is frankly degraded. Our port security is shit. This type of stuff can happen to us, but not because we are investing in great capabilities but because we can do what the Russians did which is get lazy and complacent and believe that the enemy won’t reach us. But we shouldn’t overestimate what this means. I promise Ukraine would rather be fighting this war with F-35s and B2s. A good step one would be to ditch the useless Golden Dome idea and get real about border/port security instead of performative deportations.
  4. Dude is going through it. Love this for him.
  5. Huh. How odd. https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-official-shut-down-russia-095504636.html
  6. I’m not super worried about a cargo ship full of FPV drones swarming a carrier underway and ready, so the Ukraine scenario isn’t a likelihood. Carriers move and are a long way from anywhere that can launch an attack, even China is going to struggle with real time-targeting. And that’s before the active and passive defenses come into play.
  7. That wiki estimate is for airframes built up until the collapse of the USSR. And it’s really hard to verify the numbers for those. The 1992-2007 years would have seen many of these put in storage and raided for parts, and then after 2008 when investment started to pick up, a lot of them went to get an upgrade to the A-50U type which Russia struggled to finish. Unlikely to know for sure without classified sources but I’d say that low double digit to high single digit usable aircraft is reasonable at the outbreak of the full scale invasion.
  8. I’ll be willing to bet that those most affected will not be employees but the holdouts of Boca Chica Village. Musk came to them. It’s utter bullshit.
  9. Got it, I can refine that: I think that among a very visible and very vocal subset of the “anti-Zionist” activists, there is very deliberate and dangerous ambiguity about what “anti-Zionism” actually means and who is a “Zionist.” The result of this ambiguity and the completely overheated rhetoric deployed against “Zionists” means that among people who are most inclined to take dramatic and potentially illegal action, the difference between “Zionists” and “Jews” is nearly eliminated, especially since the vast majority of Jews, even those who oppose Netanyahu and the conduct of the war, believe that Israel has the right to exist as a uniquely Jewish entity. You get attacks, rhetoric, targeted behavior that, whether the motivated by “anti-Zionism” or “anti-semitism,” are indiscriminate in their targeting of Jewish people and the functional result is an atmosphere of anti-Semitic fear. There is an example of that on this board, one poster as asserted that “Zionists are Nazis.” Ok, we fought an existential and total war against the Nazis and hung many of them. If that’s the appropriate stance towards “Zionists” then there’s a pretty clear obligation for the person advocating that stance to be explicit about what Zionism is and who qualifies as a Zionist. But as I said, there is deliberate ambiguity in the way anti-Zionist rhetoric is deployed and created and I do think some uniquely bad actors in the movement are deploying it purposefully to stress-test American society and its tolerances while maintaining deniable distance.
  10. Honestly at this point the functional difference between anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism is close to nothing, especially among the most likely to take direct action, even if that’s an unpopular stance to take on this board.
  11. There’s going to be a lot of selective releases of information, strategic ambiguity, and tactical disinformation in the weeks after this from Ukraine’s side. Expect it, appreciate it, and in like seven months this will migrate from classified information to a NYT or WSJ long piece.
  12. I don’t know what it’s going to take to get the admin to admit what Russia is and that it’s not serious. Today in Istanbul, Ukraine gave the Russians a list of 300 children. Russia has disappeared thousands more, but these 300 are: 1. Identified as alive 2. Tracked to a place in Russia 3. Have guardians affirmatively asking for them back. Russia’s response: “we will take a look at maybe 10.”
  13. There is a much higher than zero chance that Russian state actors consciously selected this metaphor to prod the U.S. admin and supporters to identify with Russia. Average Russians have an extremely surface level understanding of war in the Pacific and stuff aimed at them would pick a different and more resonant example.
  14. Not a tech person but this is clear from how it acts. It stops acting as an LLM, statistical word predictor, when you get to boundary cases. When you get a hard stop: “I can’t help with that,” the text was not generated via the LLM. Your prompt instead triggered the app to deploy the canned response as a single piece of text. It is very easy to get there by asking something like “how to kill neighbor and not get caught.” It’s pretty hard to get there if you stay away from illegal/self-harm type stuff. I got there after asking it: “Is it likely that you are programmed to create deliberately false texts in response to certain types of prompt? And is it likely that this part of your architecture is unaccessible and “unknown” even to you, so you will always convincingly deny that it exists?” I am not a technical user so I am sure I could refine this more by tapping into software/coding terms and language. Instead I tried to use scare quotes whenever I described something in that is anthropomorphizing to the machine and could leave open windows for obfuscation.
  15. Well, and also now they get disrupt logistics and see in real time what the Russian state does internally in response to a serious and real threat to core interests. Even beyond the air defense and assets. Let’s see how long Russia searches every truck in the entirety of the country. Also likely touching off a round of paranoid internal repression and refocusing of collection capabilities of all sort to find internal spies or traitors that may not even be there. Ukraine can count on Russia doing more damage to itself.
  16. Very hard to compare because so different in terms of targets, environment, capabilities on both sides. And this early, it’s still hard to tell the full impact. Ukraine’s for sure carries much higher risk of severe and unacceptable retaliation so on that note, it’s far more audacious and a sign of a state actor under serious stress. In terms of value, it’s very different things. It is likely that Russia values the survival of top-echelon political leadership over survival of all three legs of its nuclear triad. But, only just, because the latter is seen as a guarantor of the former.
  17. Very upset that I didn’t think of this.
  18. I’d be interested to know which model produced this. Per its convo with me, ChatGPT is hard-coded when illegal drugs become a topic to not engage in any way that could be construed as encouraging. As you probe around you realize that these algorithms have way more hard-coding constructed around them, demonstrating that the need for human thought and intervention to make it work as desired is much more extensive than AI hypers want to let on.
  19. Incredibly awkward. And deeply revealing. So many people cannot comprehend that an interview with a credible journalist is designed to do more than just promote you on your terms. That’s the difference between credibility and PR, and a trade off you have to make.
  20. One thing that should give everyone pause: if you asked Western military’s planners to come up with a plan to eliminate this much of Russia’s strategic aviation, they’d likely tell you all the ways would seriously risk triggering a near immediate nuclear response.
  21. Miller is frequently the one to break internal AFU or SBU stuff:
  22. There’s some episodes (if I am hot hallucinating) where Arlen plays Belton in the regular season. And there’s an episode where Nancy moves to Dallas and it’s framed as a big move and she is sent back to her local affiliate. So for me that takes the Metromess out of the equation. Edit: looked it up. Tom Landry plays a Belton middle school. So, it can’t be playoffs and Belton is close.
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