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Everything posted by Ghost of LL
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Government Shutdown 2025: This Time It’s Personal
Ghost of LL replied to Bozo_Casanova's topic in Cloak Room
I guarantee that United Airlines is not going to have to cut just a whole lot of flights. But I have to tell you--I'm not exactly sure there's a mechanism for this under the Airline Deregulation Act. The point of the ADA is that the government doesn't get to tell the airlines how many flights they get to operate. There are a handful of exceptions at certain airports that have unique restrictions like slot controls, a perimeter rule, or gate limitations (LGA, DCA, and DAL, respectively). But broadly speaking, I don't know that the DOT has legal authority to tell the airlines to cut air traffic by 10%.* And if you're the airlines, you're telling the DOT "fuck that--tell general aviation it's grounded." It's honestly a pretty reasonable take. It's definitely a take that the industry group (A4A) will take up. But it's also something real and tangible that Democrats can take up. "The Trump Administration made you miss Thanksgiving so that Elon Musk could fly his Gulfstream to Bermuda." That fucking sells. * Cue @Brisketexan jumping on here to tell me that I'm "soooo adorable" for thinking that this Administration needs legal authority to do anything.- 2558 replies
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I think people ignore the role Covid played in all this. Covid was a traumatic time, and we all have nostalgia for the Before Times. And I capitalize "Before Times," because we all know what I mean. I could use it completely out of context, and you'd know what it means. And Trump was the president at the end of the Before Times. So for a lot of people, he represents that normality that they'd want to return to. They don't remember how badly he fucked up Covid. Because we all just blocked out a lot of shit that went on during the Covid Times. It was just that traumatic. And really, for a lot of people, Biden is more closely associated with the Covid Times just because when our minds and memories kicked back on as we departed the Covid Times into the After Times, Biden was president. That's my hypothesis, at least. I'm sure there's a psychology thesis in there somewhere. Maybe someday someone will write it. I have a very good friend who is an elected officeholder and who is running for office again in 2026. He was recently asked by a constituent about his position on Israel, and he expressed his frustration to me. He complained that he is a state official; he doesn't have shit to do with foreign policy or the State Department or anything to do with Israel. So why would anybody ask him this question? I disagreed with him, and I'll tell you what I told him. It's not about Israel. Everyone knows you can't do anything about Israel and Gaza. Ok--not everyone. We have plenty of morons out there. But I know. And I'd ask you the same question for exactly the same reason I'd ask a candidate for the school board about his position on abortion or a candidate for the local MUD Board his position on immigration. It's a question about your values. When I ask you whether you support what Israel is doing in Gaza, I'm really asking what are your values. Do you know right from wrong? And does your conceptualization of right and wrong comport with my own. Because if you think that Israel bombing women and children in their homes is right; if you think Israel deplying the military to starve a civilian population is justified; if you think Israel's targeting of journalists and aid workers to facilitate its program of starvation in Gaza is morally correct, then I have my answer to every other policy issue. We don't have to talk about medicare expansion, or tariffs, or transportation policy, because I know your values don't line up with my own. So I'm going to vote against you.
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Government Shutdown 2025: This Time It’s Personal
Ghost of LL replied to Bozo_Casanova's topic in Cloak Room
So there's going to be something really extraordinary based on the SCOTUS arguments this morning. The Supreme Court is going to hold Trump's tariffs to be unconstitutional. Because duh. But what happens then? That decision isn't going to come out until March. And so what happens in March to all the money that has been collected from April 1, 2025 to March 2026? I don't exactly know how that's going to work, but one would assume that illegally collected taxes are going to get refunded. But therein lies the rub: to whom will the taxes get refunded? Presumably to the importers who directly paid the taxes to the Government. So that is to say companies like Apple and Ford will get huge checks from the federal government. But as we all know, Apple and Ford haven't been just eating the cost of those tariffs. They've been passing them along to consumers. So are they going to pass along that huge check from the federal government sometime next year? Fuuuuuuck no. They're going to take that windfall and buy back shares or distribute it to shareholders. In other words, that SCOTUS argument is setting up an absolutely enormous wealth redistribution from the consuming classes to the investing classes sometime in 2026.- 2558 replies
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Meanwhile, with the early vote in, Austin Prop Q is going down 2-1.
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The county clerk here counts votes so slowly, we’ll probably know about California Prop 50 before we know about Austin Prop Q.
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Government Shutdown 2025: This Time It’s Personal
Ghost of LL replied to Bozo_Casanova's topic in Cloak Room
Six in the morning actually is the peak departure time from AUS. The airlines want to maximize an airplane's productivity, so they want to get it in the air as early in the morning as possible. But there's really a hard stop around 6:00 AM for most people--they're not going to buy a ticket for a flight that leaves at 5:00. So virtually every gate at AUS has a flight that is going to leave within 20 minutes of 6:00. There's no other time of day at AUS that is that busy. After 6:00, the flights start to get staggered. So the early morning is the busiest it's going to be all day. They shouldn't. Trump and the Congressional Republicans have demonstrated over and over and over again that they cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith. If the Republicans want the government to reopen, then they need to give on the ACA subsidies. And it's pretty clear at this point that Republicans should want the government reopened. They're the ones taking the blame for this. You can see that in Trump's approval ratings, which are steadily declining. Every poll shows Republicans taking more of the blame for the shutdown. And when people can't go visit grandma for Thanksgiving, shit's going to get real focused. It's one thing to say you blame the ebil Democraps for the shutdown while it's not really affecting you. But when you're standing in an endless TSA line on Novmeber 25 and you know goddamned well the Republicans control the White House and both houses of Congress, that facade cracks a little bit. -
I'm actually not that worried about the officiating in the Georgia game, at least from the standpoint that I don't think Georgia is going to get some inherent favoritism from SEC officials. I say that for two reaons: 1) The SEC doesn't have an interest in Georgia beating Texas. The SEC wants more teams in the CFP, full stop. If Georgia wins, they're probably still in the CFP with only two losses. Texas, on the other hand, is probably out (not definitely, but probably). So if anything, the Conference should favor Texas winning that game. 2) I'm very skeptical of the conspiracy theories about conferences wanting certain teams to win. It would be just too big a conspiracy to keep a lid on. It's one thing for two or three referees on a crew to agree to something among themselves; it's quite another to have a crew agree with the league office about something. I just don't think it's realistic scenario. What is a realistic scenario--and one that could affect any game--is gambling. It's just really hard to watch the fourth quarter of that Vanderbilt game and conclude that one or more of that crew didn't have an interest in Vanderbilt +3.5. I think that's exceedingly rare. But as we saw--it does happen. But next time, it could just as easily happen in favor of Texas. It's completely unpredictable.
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That's really more of a side hustle.
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PM Sent.
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I mean, ok. I'm not going to argue with you that Austin voters suck. But they suck largely because Council does everything it can to reduce voter turnout among groups that would not suck nearly so much as the NA-ocracy that runs this place. So there's a little bit of a chicken-and-egg situation going on here. Regardless--the suckiness of Austin voters is no reason to vote for Prop Q.
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I gotta tell you--you're Point 3 makes absolutely no sense to me. The fact that someone you hate is going to vote against Prop Q is no basis to conclude that you should vote for it. Some things should be non-controversial. Matt Mackowiac could vote against a proposition to kill all puppies in Austin, that doesn't mean that you or I or anyone else should vote for it. Proposed legislation should stand or fall on its own merits. And the other two points you outline indicate that Prop Q has none. Austin's tax rates are too high when applied to to the residential real estate in this city. Compare the tax burden a citizen in Austin pays to any other peer city. I don't care whether we're talking San Antonio or San Jose--Austin residents pay more, and generally get far less. Otherwise, you beg the question when you write that the increase covers essential needs. The increase covers "essential" needs only because so much of the budget is already taken up covering non-essential needs. The budget is bloated. But many budgets are bloated. Austin's is bloated in in ways that are both highly publicized and intensely stupid. And that's why you're exactly right that this ill-concieved, ill-considered, and ill-timed proposition will launch careers and initiatives that are going to be bad for the City. But that's an indictment of the Council who put this proposition on the ballot just weeks after the airport-art debacle and the city-logo kerfuffle. And you advocate giving that Council more money?
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Two different Simpsons references and a Trading Places reference all in one sentence? Bravo to you, sir. That's some peak Gen-X energy right there. Well, it's not like she's going to have to worry about voting in future elections. So she might as well blow this last one.
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I'm pretty sure the Philadelphia Naval Shipyard got teleported to Newport News in 1943. It was some World War II experiment, I guess to spread out heavy industry across the Atlantic Seaboard. I'm pretty sure it was called the Move A Shipyard To Newport News To Impress Churchill Experiment.
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I kind of would've, too. But I talked to the guy in Houston who was in charge of their program and he had some really interesting insight on that. A lot of them fell out of touch with family not because of any conscious desire on the part of the family. Instead, it was more often at the initiative of the person who eventually fell into homelessness. Without a home or a job, there was no physical place to find them. And very often, the homeless person was too ashamed about their circumstance to answer a call on their cell phone (if they were able to retain that). It's only when a social worker gets involved and convinces them to make that call that they get over that shame and reach out to their family. And in the vast majority of cases, the family is (1) relieved that they're alive and ok and (2) willing and eager to help. Pretty sure a lot of their "solution" was buying them a bus ticket to Austin. Not sure Austin can use that strategy. That's Williamson County's solution, for sure. I don't remember the specifics, but I think Houston will buy a bus ticket if there is a family member in the destination willing to receive them. But they're not just buying a ticket to some random city (whether it be Austin or San Francisco).
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Dallas. I mean, before the One Big Beautiful Bill cut the funding the city was using to address homelessness. But Dallas actually had a very successful program to address homelessness. And before that, Houston developed a really good program. It's similar to what Dallas was doing. Essentially, you target a homeless camp and send in police, santitation, and social workers in a single sweep. You take the people to a temporary center for processing, where they stay for 72 hours. During that 72 hours, the city identifies what they need. Some just need a call to a family member who takes them in. Other people need serious mental-health services. Anyone still there after 72 hours gets sent over to a longer-term facility that gives them an apartment for some amount of time (I think it's six months), where there are various social services available. The end result was that something like 90% of the people left before six months, having found permanent housing (often with family who didn't have the first clue that they were homeless). Anyway--there is a formula for successfully addressing homelessness. Cities that are pretty close by have implemented it. It's not rocket surgery. We just refuse to do it.
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The Leopards Eating Faces and Unlubed Dildo of Consequences Thread
Ghost of LL replied to Horn Dog's topic in Cloak Room
I know you're joking. But that's not really how it works. Look at 19th Century Ireland or 20th Century Calabria or 21st Century Syria. When you cause the upper middle class to leave, that class doesn't get filled in by people who were lower on the socio-economic ladder. It's that the oligarchs (the Anglo-Irish nobility, the Mafia, the regime-adjacent Alawites) take over whatever wealth is left over while the lower classes get even poorer from the reduction in economic activity. And really, that's when real poverty takes hold, leading to mass emigration and foreign restrictions on migration. The lesson for the investing classes is this: emigration from a failing state is like a run on the bank--it's irrational to start one, but once it has started, it's irrational not to participate. -
The Leopards Eating Faces and Unlubed Dildo of Consequences Thread
Ghost of LL replied to Horn Dog's topic in Cloak Room
But the humorous thing is that the investing classes who live disproportionately in urban areas--which is to say the people whom these MAGAts hate and on whom they want to inflict the most pain--are doing just great, thank you very much. They don't really care that groceries are more expensive. I mean, I think they are. Maybe. I mean, I really don't know how much one banana can cost. But at the same time, this little AI bubble we have going means their income is up bigly. And part of being a member of the investing classes is that when the time comes, they can parachute out of this country with no problem. There are dozens of countries that will give you a visa if you meet (often shockingly low) passive-investment-income requirements. There are plenty more countries that will give you citizenship for investment. There are already plenty of people leaving. There are plenty more who will leave. And if this country really tanks, there will be tens or hundreds of thousands who will just leave this place behind. But those farmers and small-town merchants in Iowa? They're stuck here. -
The Leopards Eating Faces and Unlubed Dildo of Consequences Thread
Ghost of LL replied to Horn Dog's topic in Cloak Room
A 6.1% contraction in GDP is . . . bad. For comparison, the peak-to-trough drop in GDP during the Great Recession was only 4.3%. It could be a whole lot worse. The Great depression was around 30%. But . . . we're not done yet, Iowa--we could still get there. -
Texas vs. Mississippi State - 3:15pm on SEC Network
Ghost of LL replied to Pancho's topic in Football
I did the same thing—went to take a nap at halftime. Woke up and turned on the World Series. Didn’t know we won until just a minute ago when I switched it over to the aggy game to check the score and saw it on the scroll. i couldn’t be more shocked. -
Let’s money-whip Cignetti.
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Goddamn, you're still this fucking bitter about that? I mean, I don't know about you, but I had a lot of fun on that trip. Dinner at Galatoire's the night before and then four-dozen after-argument oysters at Felix's? That was a damned good time. Of course, Edith Jones didn't chew my ass out at oral argument. So maybe that colors my perspective.
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This has some real Fort Sumter vibes. And if you don't see that, then you need to pick up a book. Well, as a matter of fact, . . . .
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I don't agree with futureman very often . . . and this certainly isn't going to be one of those times. I like pickles. A lot. I'll order extra pickles on that tuna sandwich. But the logistics of that are going to be a problem. A pickle doesn't have the give of bread. So when you bite into a pickle, all the sandwich fillings are going to shoot out the other end--especially with a non-solid filling like tuna. So hard pass.
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I'm sorry--you're right. I was imprecise in my statement. He's the most popular Republican holding state office in Texas (and I include Cornyn, Cruz, and the various MOCs in that).
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