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Everything posted by Ghost of LL
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
I have to tell you--I'm not too worried about all this Muslim talk for two reasons: 1) For the same reason I'm not particularly happy about these exit polls that show a bunch of Haley voters say they're not voting for Trump in November, I'm not too worried about this. The primaries are the time to register protest votes when you've got incumbents seeking re-nomination. Now sometimes, those protests are large enough that they signal real problems in November (see, e.g., Buchanan in 1992; Kennedy in 1980). And maybe Haley is large enough that she falls into that category. But we haven't seen that with Biden. For right now, those are just protest votes in a primary. That's a real benefit to an incumbent; it lets dissatisfied partisans blow off steam. There'll be plenty of time between March and November for those dissatisfied partisans to reframe the question in their minds as one between two choices (in which one choice is plainly preferable over the other). 2) It's fucking Michigan. Even outside the Arab-Muslim population, Michigan is a disaster for the GQP right now. The state party is in a shambles. They hold no statewide offices. They are too busy fighting over election denialsism to actually campaign for votes. I'd be a lot more worried if Dearborn were in Wisconsin. But happily, it's not. It's in Michigan. And Michigan is fucking blue. -
I was watching BBC this morning, and you’re dead right about their hosts. They were interviewing the Deputy PM and asking him about some comments from some rando Tory MP. And he just wouldn’t say whether the comments were racist. Finally, the interviewer just says, “and our viewers will have discerned by now that you don’t want to say whether the comments were racist, but ….” It was exactly right and very clever, because it kind of forced the guest to provide something of an answer.
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Nobody actually believes that frozen embryos are children. I don't like to get into dissecting people's motives on things. It's generally counterproductive. I certainly doesn't address the logical failings of the argument. But here, it's unavoidable. Nobody believes that frozen embryos are children, as reflected in the runaway-trolly though experiment I referenced above. I'm not saying there aren't plenty of people who will say "yeah, I think life begins at conception." But such people generally haven't thought through the full implications of what that means. For those who have thought through the full implications--and that is to say legislators, judges, and other policy-makers and -influencers--they don't actually believe that frozen embryos are children. And even if they were, they don't actually give two fucks about children, as reflected in the elimination of the summer food program. This is about controlling women and taking away their bodily autonomy. That's it. And anybody who tries to engage these people in any kind of good-faith debate about when life begins is making a mistake. Because these are not good-faith actors.
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These people don't even believe that shit. Nobody believes that shit. Know how I know? Just do the old thought experiment with the trolley. You're at the switch and a runaway trolley is coming down the tracks. On one spur, there's a toddler. On the other spur, there's a cryogenic container with 100 frozen embryos. Is anybody flipping the switch to kill the toddler?
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
I'm definitely FOR me not having sex with that woman. So see--even in a negative environment, you can run a positive campaign. -
And let's not sleep on the fact that the majority of degrees are now going to women.
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Ok--that's terrifying. But I have to observe . . . and I really can't believe I'm the first one to say this . . . I'd like to slide into the Widow Emily's tight spaces.
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There's going to be a real interesting RFRA lawsuit coming out of this.
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That's another predictable result. Let me give you another: serious brain-drain in Alabama. If you're a couple who has fertility problems and the wherewithal to pay for fertility treatments, are you going to continue to live in Alabama? Fuck no--if you have the financial resources to afford fertility treatments, you have the ability to take your talents to Georgia or California or Massachusetts. And conversely, if you're a woman who has an education and may consider possibly being something other than a baby-incubator, you're going to seriously think about locating your life and career elsewhere. Alabama (and any other state that follows its lead) is going to go through some things over the next decade.
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ERCOT, PUC, and deregulation got us here
Ghost of LL replied to cactusflinthead's topic in Cloak Room
And by the way, there is a very interesting briefing article in The Economist this week about the electrification of heavy industry. -
2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
There's a lot of truth to that. The human brain has a remarkable ability to forget traumatic events as a coping mechanism. And 2020 was an extremely traumatic national event. It wasn't just Covid. We had George Floyd and the whole Black Lives Matter movement. And, oh by the way, we damned near went to war with Iran after droning the head of the IRGC. But that's not to say that those suppressed memories can't be recovered. The only reason to advertise this far ahead of a November election is to define yourself or your opponent. But these candidates are already well-defined. You're right that anything that tries to talk up the status quo is a waste, because the status quo will change between now and November (whether for good or ill remains to be seen). I hate to tell you . . . and I really do hate to say this, because I abhor this type of cynicism in politics . . . but this is not going to be a positive election focusing on Biden's accomplishments. This is going to be a very negative campaign. And that is very good (albeit intensely cynical) politics. Because while there is no conclusive evidence that negative campaigning helps the candidate undertaking the mudslinging (or hurts him/her due to an anti-negativity backlash), there is conclusive evidence that negative campaigning reduces turnout. And that's what Biden and the Democrats have to want right now. As reflected in the midterms and every special election, Democrats excel in low-turnout races. That's because Democratic voters are (1) more educated, and (2) super-pissed about things like abortion. Biden has low approval ratings. That's just how it's going to be. But if he can convince marginal voters "they both suck, I don't want to vote for either of them," then that's probably a win for him. So buckle up, folks--we're probably going to see the most negative presidential election in our lifetimes. -
I mean, look--isn't that the completely predictable outcome? I can probably contract a sufficient waiver that would insulate a client against a wrongful-death lawsuit of the type that brought about this ruling. But that does nothing to insulate a client against a potential criminal prosecution. And this is Alabama--there's definitely the potential for a criminal prosecution. But here's the real fucking deal: if you're a woman who is (or might be) pregnant, you'd do well not to go anywhere near Alabama. It's kind of like a roller coaster in that way. Because if you have a glass of wine or take a draft on a cigarette or slurp down an oyster, you could be charged with injury to a child. Or ride on a motorcycle or a car without your seatbelt on, and you could face a charge of child endangerment. Because . . . and here's really the point . . . as a pregnant woman in Alabama, you do not have full civil rights. You are--and this is the important part--not a full human; you are an incubator.
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I mean, to precisely your point, that isn't Waterloo Records' forever home. And a mundane strip center--even if we really like one of the tenants--is far from the best use of that particular piece of real estate. I really don't think they'll have a hard time securing a lease elsewhere.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
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No--that's in French Guiana. Which is to say, France.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
I mean, c'mon--we all know it's Noem because Trump thinks if he puts her on the ticket she'd owe him and he'd be able to leverage that into sex. -
Looks like Kristi Noem didn't get the message that the border isn't that great a GQP issue since they killed the border bill. But do take some time to reflect on the Gujaratis who have opened a dozen Hampton Inns, Four Points by Sheraton, and Homewood Suites in and around Eagle Pass over the last 18 months. They're making an absolute killing. Good for them.
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I mean, sure--if you're a Republican. Putting Judge Crump on the Court of Appeals means that her seat on the district court bench becomes vacant. Abbott would fill that. And you know he would fill it with the most loony-toons GQP nutter the Office of the Attorney General has to offer. Karin Crump is a good district judge. Keep her there. Keep Tom Baker on the Court of Appeals. Keep Abbott's loony MAGAt off the Travis County bench.
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I would just recommend doing the North Rim of the Grand Canyon if you're hitting the Utah parks. We did a huge Western United States during Covid, and Zion was our favorite. We really liked Kanab, which is really kind of in between Zion, Bryce, and the North Rim. It's a cool little town with a number of old roadside motels that have been refurbished and are pretty nice. And out of Kanab, we did a dune-buggy tour that was a real highlight. The North Rim is nice because it's about 1,500 feet higher than the South Rim, so it is a lot cooler in the summer. And, as an added bonus, it's a lot less crowded.
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That's hilarious, because Morgan is literally the only Republican who can win that district. If a primary challenge is successful, that's the same as handing that seat over to the Dems.
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It's definitely not more than I've had in my life, because I like a good cheesesteak. And this is very important--Cheez Whiz is the proper cheese product to put on a cheesesteak. But it has no business anywhere near an enchilada. The proper cheese for an enchilada of the cheese variety is, as everyone knows, Land O Lakes Extra Melt Shredded Processed Yellow American Cheese.
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My god, man. Seriously--what the fuck is wrong with you?
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Eh, . . . can I maybe just visit for a few hours? Like fly into Fargo, cast a ballot, and then fly right back out?
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
I think people sleep on Alaska, and your overview kind of reflects that. Alaska has stayed Republican because, well let's face it, it's a reasonably new state and a lot of its partisan alignment is the direct result from the issues over statehood and the personal brand of certain long-serving officeholders (Hawai'i is the same way). Alaska is hugely supported by the federal government. So nobody has really cared whether Ted Stevens or Don Young or Frank Murkowski is a Dem or a Rep; all that matters is whether they bring home the federal money. But the fundamentals don't completely favor the GQP. As noted above, it has an enormous non-white population. And it is actually surprisingly urban. And while the percentage of the population with a bachelor degree is low, there are comparatively few Evangelicals. So when Don Young died, it's not particularly surprising that Peltola won. And she's now the most popular figure in Alaska politics. And that's the model. It's the Arizona model. Get the Native American population on board and mobilized for voting Democratic. And then blend that with the urban and educated suburban electorate. Oh, and weird thing--they really like weed in rural Alaska. So that's another occasional base for Democratic support (particularly in the bush).
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