The polls are broken because there's a bunch of people who only fucking come out when Donald Trump is on the ballot. They view politics as entertainment. And they're not going to go to the show if Bette Midler isn't going to be on stage that night. They're showing up for the star, not the fucking understudy.
Polls of "likely voters" can't account for that. So you're saying you voted in 2016 and 2020? Well, you're probably a likely voter for purposes of the likely-voter screen. But--and stay with me here--that person really isn't a likely voter in a special election in the middle of February if he didn't vote in 2022 or 2018 or any fucking presidential election before 2016.
But is he a likely voter in November with Trump on the ballot? My guess is "yes."
So, Donald, you fucking moron, here's the real scoop: Souzzi won by the margin he did entirely BECAUSE OF YOU!
Pilip went out and toed the GQP line in favor of killing the (formerly bipartisan) border deal. And Souzzi fucking hung her with that. He argued that immigration is a clusterfuck and the border is in crisis, and it is Republicans like Pilip who refuse to do anything about it. They're imperiling national security for perceived political gain. "Blame me," said Trump, and the voters fucking did.
I don't think Souzzi could turn immigration into a positive for Democrats. But he sure showed the gameplan for how to neuter the issue.
And the gameplan exists entirely because of Trump. He's the one who took his own best issue off the field. It's like having Reggie Bush on the fucking sideline for 4th and 2. Fucking unbelievable (thanks, Sark).