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Vegas64

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  1. Also Cunningham having an off night shooting and still nearly getting a triple double. To the eyeball test he was easily the best basketball player on the floor last night and is fun to watch. One of the guys in the NBA it's hard to not like and to not like his game.
  2. I was at the AAC tonight. A few notes: We have to get rid of Klay. He is completely washed and nearly sold. Meaningful minutes to Klay is crazy and his turnovers, stupid fouls, and not being able to hit the broadside of a barn in the 3rd quarter nearly lost the game. AD had like 2 points it felt like going into the 4th but ended with a solid double double. He had a respectable game which I was impressed/surprised with. Cooper is great but he needs to learn how to shoot the 3. Or if he already knows how to shoot the 3 @ 40% clip, he needs to fire away more. This team as it is constructed has no 3pt shooters once Max Christie goes cold and starts hitting the side of the backboard and airballing short. Watching Detroit, who should have won if they didn't have the worst shooting night of their season, shows you how far away this team really still is. Guys like B-Will, Nembhard, and Klay getting meaningful minutes is crazy work. If we get Kyrie back, with Cooper Flagg, a healthy AD and can trade for LaMelo I think is a name I keep hearing, that's tuff with some of the role players and deeper bench pieces. Get rid of Lively and Klay for whatever you can get. It was Anime night sponsored by Crunchyroll. Oy vey, what a whiff. This won't be ran back for next year. Literally zero interest and participation from the fans on any of the anime related bits. The camera panning for costumes/cosplay during the "Anime cosplay cam" session and finding nobody was especially cringe. Also a surprising amount of Detroit fans. Like 20% or so.
  3. https://www.threads.com/@doctorjonpaul/post/DRLp7xGEdNH/lord-we-are-in-the-end-of-times-they-done-discontinued-the-nissan-altima?hl=en
  4. https://www.kxan.com/news/national-news/is-140000-the-real-poverty-line-a-viral-essay-sparks-debate/ A viral claim that $140,000 is the “real poverty line” has reignited debate over how poverty is defined and what it means to be middle class in 2025. Investor Michael Green recently calculated that a family of four would need roughly $136,500 a year to afford essentials like child care, food, transportation, housing and health care. That’s more than four times the U.S. poverty threshold set by the Department of Health and Human Services, which is $32,150 for a family of four. Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager for Simplify Asset Management, laid out his argument in a widely read Substack essay that drew both praise and fierce pushback.
  5. I think this is an old model and outdated way of thinking... As previously mentioned, I trekked into the office this week because I had a holiday party at a local place nearby, and it's kinda dead. A bunch of low-end employees are there and a bunch of the sales people. It's a younger crowd who comes in office. There is 100% not a President or EVP or SVP in the group. It feels like the only people going into the offices these days are people that are mandated.
  6. I just read and some watched some stuff today that made the COMPLETE bear case of OpenAI and I think I can be sold on that and your POV. Specifically because: 1) OpenAI has no moat except first mover advantage 2) There is zero switching costs and LLMs and GPT type AI is a commodity (to your points) 3) The three likely exits for OpenAI are like Royal's famous quote "3 outcomes and 2 are bad (for OpenAI): a) Microsoft strip mines OpenAI for value and leaves a rotting husk OR b) Investors/Creditors get debt called and purchase commitments pulled and all the funny money gets wiped away forcing a break up for parts OR c) OpenAI goes IPO before the unit economics are fully known and fall apart and retail investors/institutional investors are the fools holding the bag* * And they are already talking about IPO and Altman and others makes out with billions of course. For a guy who says he's doing it for everything but the money, he wears a $500k watch and drives a $5mm car. Curious! He is existing in society as a billionaire would!
  7. From Wiles (I think via Vanity Fair) Trump “wants to keep on blowing boats up until Maduro cries uncle. And people way smarter than me on that say that he will.” Ie, in one breath she confirms two things we’ve long flagged: first, that the counter-narcotics framing is just a fig-leaf to oust Maduro. And second, like it or not, it might work (Maduro has been haggling over exile terms since at least early November). And in the Americas at least, this all hints at Trump’s preference for 1) coercion over containment, 2) unilateral action over multilateral pressure, and 3) personal dominance over institutional strategy. Legal, humanitarian, or regional fallout?
  8. It's harder than you'd think on first pass. I drove into the office yesterday for a holiday party. It was an exercise in gratitude for not having to do that except for rare occassions. I can't go back to having to commute into a city center and work in an office and lose that time in commuting, etc. On the other hand if I only made $120k, I'd have to do it. I can't even get by on $240k so I'd hate to try on $120.
  9. Depends on how you define leader. I think the consensus is surely that Google almost fumbled the bag and OpenAI should have never been allowed to grow to be what it is today and they have caught up all the ground they lost. Gemini's models and image generation, etc. is technically better I think the consensus is, but the mass majority of people use OpenAI more. I think their MAU's dwarf Gemini's right now. ChatGPT is the Kleenex brand name of AI and Google has only themselves to blame for that I think. I think the analysts (and traders) who are watching this bubble in earnest are all super bullish on Google because they are vertically integrated (e.g. make their own TPU's, have a massive infrastructure via GCP, etc.) and are well positioned to win the AI wars, but OpenAI is certainly not yesterdays news.
  10. Depends. I've been in county during the holidays and everyone sort of comes together to laugh and hang out and I've been in during the summer whenever people just want to fight.
  11. I haven't done a push up in 30 years. Let's see!
  12. Was going to post something like this. Birth rates plummet for responsible people groups and they explode for marginal, disadvantaged and developing people groups. I think that's a tale as old as time. Going from hundreds of years ago with the Irish and Italians to the Mexicans of the last two or three generations in America to globally the highest growth regions being the poor areas of Sub-Sahara Africa and Bangladesh and the like. Just based on pure brute force numbers, the world power and hegemony will be a brown persons world sooner than later IMO.
  13. The question you should be asking yourself is, if you believe all that to be true, how do you best position yourself to profit and come out ahead? Think like the Big Short guys who saw the global housing collapse coming. If you really believe it, that is. That is what I've been challenging myself with at least, having the balls to make some bets on what I think I believe to be true to best position myself for the future.
  14. And Oracle is back to almost even from before the huge spike. AI forecasted demand stock growth giveth and it taketh away.
  15. This is all apocraphyia these days in the lore and legend of AI and such, but I was listening to a podcast and apparently Elon was all-in on SpaceX and told the founder of Deepmind that his whole focus was on SpaceX because he wanted to get to Mars as a back up plan for when things got bad here on earth...to which the guy told Elon "dude, the thing that is goign to go bad on earth is likely A.I., and if it's A.I., you don't think it will be able to get to Mars too based on systems, comms, technology, etc. that we used?" Elon then invested in Deepmind and started really focusing on AI after that "aha!" moment. WIld.
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