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Media/$9.95-er postgame analysis articles (Week 8)


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Collecting all the post-game analysis articles, including those behind paywalls, regarding the UK game here:

(Gerald Goodridge) No. 21 Texas 16, Kentucky 13: Three things we learned

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Ugly may not be strong enough of a word to describe the No. 21 Texas Longhorns’ efforts in their win over the Kentucky Wildcats. Texas looked hapless on offense until the very end, nearly blowing a sure thing in overtime after needing just a field goal to win the game in the extra period. The passing game was out of sync, and the run game was something even worse than failure-to-launch.

The offense is not fixed

It looked like the offense may have found a recipe for success against the Oklahoma Sooners, but it looked like its typical listless self in Lexington. Texas started the game with three consecutive punts, only breaking the trend thanks to a massive punt return from Ryan Niblett that set them up with a short field. Texas was somehow worse in the second half, with three of their first four drives going three-and-out for one yard. Just two drives in the second half ended with points, both of which were field goals. One had one chunk play — a 31-yard pass to Emmett Mosley — and the other was set up by Ryan Niblett’s second big return of the night. Even on that final offensive drive of regulation, the offense made a crucial mental error, with DeAndre Moore going out of bounds to stop the clock and give Kentucky enough time to tie the game up in regulation.

This defense deserves better

The Texas defense did enough in regulation to beat Kentucky. Pete Kwiatkowski’s unit forced the Wildcats to punt on six of their drives, keeping a clean sheet for the first half, with a turnover on downs, three punts, an interception, and a missed field goal. Colin Simmons and Anthony Hill played like men possessed, with Hill finishing the game with 12 tackles and an interception and Simmons with three sacks and a forced fumble.

The unit sputtered a bit late, but they were rightfully gassed in the second half, with Kentucky massively controlling the time of possession, ending regulation with an almost 19-minute advantage in time of possession, running 81 plays to Texas’s 52. Despite that, the defense came up with stop after stop in the second half, sending Kentucky off the field without points on three of their five drives to close regulation. They did it again in overtime, after allowing a big chunk play to set up UK in scoring position, but stonewalled them on the goal line to set up the game-winning field goal.

Texas needs answers on the ground

While Quintrevion Wisner looked solid a week ago against Oklahoma, that seemed to be an apparition based on what Texas managed in Lexington. Texas put together just 50 yards by its running backs with 15 carries, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry in the contest. The Longhorns went 1-4 on downs when they needed two or fewer to convert and were stuffed on 32% of their carries. They were 0-4 on third and shorts, with just 18 yards on the ground on third downs, converting just one by rush. The offensive line looked exceedingly average against a Kentucky defense giving up an average of 192.66 yards in its three SEC games this year. Texas put up fewer yards on the ground than both Toledo and Eastern Michigan did against Kentucky, a simple summation of how bad things were.

Chip Brown: Quick Takes from Texas' 16-13 overtime victory at Kentucky

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LEXINGTON, Ky. — Just when you thought the Texas offense had found some rhythm with a short-passing game and a commitment to the run in a win over Oklahoma, Steve Sarkisian returned to a slow-developing, deep passing attack that hadn't worked all season behind a flawed offensive line. It didn't work again Saturday night at Kentucky in a 16-13 overtime win at Kentucky in a game in which Texas' offense regressed to its early-season ineptitude.

Instead, it was Kentucky using a quick passing game to its running backs, attacking the perimeter of Texas' defense with an occasional drag route across the middle to pile up yards and time of possession between the 20s before stalling. The result was an overtime game on a Saturday full of upsets.

Thanks to a Mark Stoops' decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the 1 in overtime, and a goal-line stand led by Travis Shaw, Michael Taaffe and Liona Lefau as well as a clutch, 45-yard field goal by Mason Shipley in OT, Texas escaped Lexington with a 13-10 win for its first victory in a true road game this season. But if not for a bending-but-not-breaking Texas defense, led by three sacks from Colin Simmons and the goal-line stand in overtime, as well as two big punt returns by Ryan Niblett of 45 yards to the UK 5, setting up a 1-yard Quintrevion Wisner TD run in the first half, and of 43 yards to the UK 42 with 2:36 left to play, the Longhorns would've had no way of moving the ball into scoring position because UT's offense was so inept. Even on the first play of overtime, Texas' Brandon Baker was flagged for holding, forcing Shipley's game-winning field goal to be from 45 yards.

— After completing 21-of-27 last week in a win over Oklahoma, Arch Manning was back to struggling with inaccuracy, finishing 12-of-27 (44%) for 132 yards. Manning missed Ryan Wingo on a couple third-down throws from the pocket in the first half and missed a wide-open Jack Endries 15 yards downfield at the UK 25 from the pocket in the third quarter. Manning missed Emmett Mosley IV on a third-and-5 slant in the fourth quarter with pressure in his face. He threw a ball in the dirt to Wingo on a crosser midway through the fourth quarter.

Manning finally hit a clutch throw to DeAndre Moore for 9 yards on third-and-7 with 1:39 left to the UK 30. But two plays later, Moore caught a pass on second-and-10 and ran out of bounds after a 9-yard gain instead of sliding in bounds and forcing Kentucky to use its final timeout. On third-and-1, Manning couldn't gain a yard, forcing Mason Shipley to kick a 39-yard field goal with 57 seconds left. That was enough time for Kentucky go 46 yards in seven plays and kick a 45-yard field goal to tie the game with :09 left, sending the game into overtime.

— Kentucky's defense had so much success attacking the left interior of Texas' offensive line (right between LG Nick Brooks and C Connor Robertson) that by the time Texas absolutely needed to complete some passes in the fourth quarter, Manning was under siege and seemingly losing confidence by the drive. It's crazy, but Manning seems more accurate throwing the ball when he's on the move than he is throwing from the pocket.

— Kentucky had given up 220 yards rushing on 48 carries to Ole Miss; 131 yards rushing on 30 carries to Eastern Michigan; 178 yards rushing on 48 carries to South Carolina; and 180 yards on 44 carries to Georgia. Texas finished with 47 yards rushing on 28 carries (1.7 ypc). Let that sink in for a second. Texas' inability to sustain any kind of offense resulted in the Texas defense had been on the field almost twice as long (39:23) as the Texas offense (20:37). Kentucky ran 88 plays to Texas' 55 and outgained the Longhorns 395 yards to 179.

 

  • Hook 'Em 5
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(Ian Boyd) Five quick thoughts: Texas needs overtime in Kentucky

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Once again, the Longhorns found winning on the road in the SEC against a physical team to be quite the challenge. Texas rarely held the ball and seldom did anything when they did while Kentucky was allowed to hammer away at the vaunted Longhorn defense with double teams and check down passes. Eventually a lack of scoring by Texas allowed Kentucky to force overtime at home.

Unfortunately for the Wildcats, all of their long drives didn’t amount to much actual scoring. A terrific goal line stand by the Texas defense thwarted Kentucky’s overtime possession while the WIldcats’ possessions in regulation mostly stalled out before any damage could be done. And so, Texas survived for another week to get to 5-2 overall (one win from bowl eligibility!) and 2-1 in SEC play. Steve Sarkisian now gets another week to rethink offense and try to get Texas back on track.

Quick thought no. 1: Sark did not stick to the OU blueprint

Interestingly enough, with Oklahoma safely subdued, Sark went back to the previous style of offense. Despite turning to a new center, the Longhorns pulled from a deep bag of different run game schemes and overall formations. The results looked similar to how they looked executing this grab bag offense against other opponents.

It was deep into the game before Texas dialed up the outside zone play which was so profitable against Oklahoma. Instead Texas tried to attack the Kentucky fronts with a variety of inside zone, counter gap schemes, and a heavy dose of power sweeps to the perimeter. With the more varied approach to offense we saw a return to the sloppiness and struggles of the other games.

The Longhorns ran the ball to backs Tre Wisner and Christian Clark 15 times for just 59 yards at 3.9 ypc. Arch Manning was asked on multiple occasions to try and pick up the load but the quarterback run game was sloppier still and plagued by missed assignments and a lack of surprise. Without a run game to bank on, Texas’ protections struggled. Manning was sacked three times, hurried seven more, and took several hits while acquiring some fresh cuts and bruises.

This is not a sustainable way for Texas to play offense this season without incurring some losses or getting Manning injured. They are not skilled and effective enough to execute a larger array of offensive schemes and gameplans, this unit needs the offense to be pared down like it was against the Sooners.

Quick thought no. 2: Niblett wins at Churchill Downs

Texas would surely have lost this game if not for a pair of Ryan Niblett punt returns that created two scoring chances. The increasingly impactful speedster had returns of 45 yards and 43 yards to set up Texas’ sole touchdown and a field goal. Mason Shipley was also crucial to Texas’ win with field goals of 53, 39, and 45 yards, including the game-winner in overtime. 

Punter Jack Bouwmeester was also important to this win with eight punts for 336 yards which pinned the Wildcats inside the 20 six times and included three punts of 50+ yards. This was a defense and special teams win for the Longhorns. The offense did very little to contribute to victory other than avoiding turnovers. The special teams and defense controlled field position and raised the bar too high for Kentucky to clear.

Quick thought no. 3: Ball control vs bend don’t break

Pete Kwiatkowski’s bend-don’t-break defensive stylings met their match in Kentucky’s ball control offense in this contest. The Wildcats held the ball for 39:23 of the game before overtime and they ran 85 plays for 395 yards at 4.6 ypp compared to Texas 52 plays for 171 yards at 3.3 ypp. This also included 26 first downs by the Kentucky offense to just eight for Texas in regulation. Third downs were somehow more even with Kentucky going a modest 7-18 while Texas was 5-15.

So it wasn’t a defensive failing per say that allowed Kentucky to dominate the ball so thoroughly. The short fields enabled by Niblett’s punt returns was an additional factor. However, PK’s bend don’t break approach definitely does not pair well with a high volume of three’n’out possessions of the sort Sark’s offense was generating in this game.

It’s clearly possible to get double teams and push the Texas defense around some this season, but it’s not very efficient in terms of scoring. Texas’ struggles to keep track of Cutter Boley on the scramble is one of the only factors that kept Kentuky in the game. Anthony Hill had 12 tackles on the day with an interception and a break up while Colin Simmons had another huge day with three total sacks, one of which forced a fumble that Kentucky recovered.

It was more of the same in overtime. A perimeter screen out-leveraged the Longhorns outside to get the ball down near the goal line before the Longhorns flooded the field with big humans and stuffed four consecutive attempts by the Wildcats to push the ball across. This was an outstanding defensive performance by the Longhorns to bail the offense out of an abysmal road showing.

Quick thought no. 4: Arch Manning on the road

Arch Manning will inevitably take a lot of the blame for Texas’ malaise on offense. There were multiple occasions where we saw glimpses of earlier season Manning, such as when he threw a few open crossers at Ryan Wingo’s feet or sailed a ball over a wide open Jack Endries‘ head.

Manning also had pressure in his face early and often, had no run game to support his efforts, and still manaaged to hang in and deliver a few big throws down the stretch to help secure the win. One throw was a sideline toss which resulted in DeAndre Moore going out of bounds, stopping the clock and buying time for the Wildcats to launch their best drive of the game and force overtime. Why Texas was throwing to the sideline in that context, I couldn’t tell you. It set up a 3rd-and-short where another poorly executed quarterback run was stuffed, forcing a Texas field goal with nearly a full minute left for Kentucky.

A lot of this season has resembled some moments from early in 2010 when Texas tried to mix in a pro-style run game with the old spread sets with Garrett Gilbert at the helm, did none of it particularly well, and buried their young signal-caller under the pressure of trying to carry it all. Manning has stood taller than Gilbert that year and generated a lot more wins. He also has a better defense helping him stave off disaster. Still, it’s hard not to notice the similarities in how a highly touted young passer has been set up to fail by the surrounding structure at Texas.

Overall, this was a gutsy performance on the road by Manning but not a good one other than his ability to avoid turnovers. He finished 12-27 for 132 yards at a dismal 4.9 ypa with 11 carries in the run game for -1 yards. Sark needs to get him back into a coherent offense with a functioning run game.

Quick thought no. 5: Texas has the wrong sort of identity

The Longhorn identity this season has been to play outstanding defense every week and stumble their way on offense to a middling performance that’s either just enough or not quite. That’s not the identity Texas was aiming to create this season, nor the one we anticipated this offseason, but seven games in they’ve been pretty consistent in this description. Sark brings pretty different gameplans from week to week, a collection of various plays that don’t overlap much with one another.

This offensive line and tight end group is not old or skilled enough to execute it all and so we see wild fluctuations between competence and penalty-ridden disasters from play to play. I’m not sure why Sark didn’t take the success against Oklahoma as an indicator to change his approach and opt for more consistency in scheme and system. It feels like he’s trying to play-call his way through it all until Texas can start to catch up on offense. This road game, as well some of the results this weekend in which Texas’ next two opponents (Mississippi State and Vanderbilt) showed a lot of competence, suggest a third loss is likely to win the race against the Longhorn offense.

Sam Khan Jr.: No. 21 Texas survives Kentucky in OT despite lackluster offensive showing

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Texas escaped a rock fight with Kentucky on Saturday night, squeezing out a 16-13 overtime road SEC win after a stellar defensive effort and a game-winning field goal from Mason Shipley. The win keeps the No. 21 Longhorns’ slim College Football Playoff hopes alive, a week after Texas (5-2, 2-1 SEC) toppled rival Oklahoma.

Texas held Kentucky (2-4, 0-4) to just 4.6 yards per play and one touchdown, enabling an anemic Longhorns’ offense to do just enough to escape Lexington with the victory. Texas’ defense racked up 11 tackles for loss, five sacks, an interception and produced a critical goal-line stand in overtime when Kentucky opted against a field goal and went for it on fourth-and-goal from the 1.

That stop made the offense’s job academic: don’t turn it over and let Shipley do the rest, which he did, connecting on a 45-yard field goal to send Texas home victorious. The Longhorns are relieved to leave Lexington with a win, and they should be. SEC road wins are usually difficult, regardless of records. But the victory also laid bare glaring issues and leaves fans and alumni wondering: Why does Texas’ offense look so inept?

Texas gained just 179 yards on Saturday, the lowest offensive yardage output of the 62-game Steve Sarkisian era. It was only the second time in Sarkisian’s five seasons at Texas that the Longhorns failed to reach 200 yards. Their previous low was a 199-yard showing in a 17-10 home loss to TCU in 2022. The running game was virtually nonexistent. Texas finished with just 47 rushing yards and averaged 1.7 yards per attempt.

Running backs Quintrevion Wisner and Christian Clark combined for 15 carries and just 50 yards. The passing game never got into a rhythm, as quarterback Arch Manning finished 12-of-27 passing for 132 yards and no touchdown passes. He distributed the ball to seven receivers, but none reached 40 receiving yards on Saturday.

And the offensive line had its hands full again, as it has often this year. The Longhorns’ line, which was shorthanded without starting center Cole Hutson and guard Connor Stroh, allowed three sacks and seven quarterback hurries on Saturday night. Texas has allowed quarterback pressure on 42.4 percent of dropbacks this season, which is the fifth-highest rate in the country, according to TruMedia.

Why the Longhorns’ offense is struggling

How is this the offense that Sarkisian, one of the most respected offensive minds in the sport, has produced in his fifth year on the job after multiple top-10 recruiting classes? One of the most evident issues with the Longhorns is a lack of explosive playmakers akin to what they’ve had on the Forty Acres the last four years. The offensive talent appears capable, but not elite. There is no Bijan Robinson in the backfield. There is no Xavier Worthy or Matthew Golden at receiver. Who among Texas’ offensive skill position players strikes fear in SEC defensive coordinators the way those NFL Draft picks did?

All five starters on the offensive line are homegrown recruits. Only one of them had significant starting experience before this season — right guard DJ Campbell — after four of Texas’ 2024 starters departed. Three were drafted, and the other exhausted his eligibility. Some wonder if Texas should have tapped into the transfer portal to bring in veteran linemen, but Sarkisian said earlier this month the current personnel are “more than capable.”

Texas has a young offense and that explains some of the growing pains. Of the 11 typical offensive starters, only four — Wisner, Campbell, receiver DeAndrew Moore and tight end Jack Endries — came into the season with double-digit career starts and Endries’ starts came at his previous stop, Cal.

Although inexperience can explain away some of the miscues, it doesn’t absolve what we saw on Saturday. In the Longhorns’ seventh game of the season, the offense doesn’t look markedly better than it was in the Week 1 loss to Ohio State. It looked like it had regressed, a surprising development after having a competent showing against an elite Oklahoma defense a week prior.

Manning, after playing a clean, mistake-free game against the Sooners, missed several throws against Kentucky. He missed an open Wingo on a crossing route in the first half and a wide-open Endries late in the game that could have kept a drive alive. The lack of any explosive runs allowed Kentucky to tee off on Manning. And Sarkisian’s offense, which relies heavily on play action passing, is harder to execute when there’s no run game for defenders to respect.

The one player who did make things happen with the ball in his hands was Ryan Niblett, who returned two punts for 88 yards, both of which set Texas up with good field position that the Longhorns converted into points. Niblett, who was recruited as a receiver but has also played running back and on special teams in his Texas career, may be someone to work into the game plan more as the Longhorns search for answers.

In the meantime, Pete Kwiatkowski’s defense continues to answer the bell. That unit has carried the Longhorns time and again in the last four years and the veteran presence of guys like linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and safety Michael Taaffe has been invaluable. The defense looks prepared to carry the Longhorns as long as it must.

But Texas needs to find its offensive identity. The last five teams the Longhorns face — Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Arkansas and Texas A&M — all average 30-plus points per game. Sarkisian, who serves as the team’s play caller, needs to find answers and soon, before the preseason No. 1 team is knocked out of CFP contention entirely.

 

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Posted (edited)

We went away from everything that worked well against at Oklahoma. Sark should have focused on getting the team to get good at outside zone again and instead rolled out the Ohio St game plan.  Now here we are getting to start over again on trying to find an offensive identity. 

Edited by Newy25
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I guess part of the reason for the OZ plan against OU is Venables is known to be weak against it.

So perhaps the thinking was what worked against OU isn't gonna work against anyone else, or Kentucky.  But that seems to be overthink.

And maybe Tre was overworked/injured and perceived to be the only reliable RB, especially for OZ running.

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Eric Nahlin: Arch Manning struggles highlight deeper Texas Longhorns offensive issues

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Arch Manning was bad yesterday—Ohio State bad. He left a lot of yardage on the field, much of it of the pitch-and-catch variety. With that important caveat out of the way, let’s get to some other points of contention, like where the buck stops.

Back during the 2022 season, I mentioned Steve Sarkisan the coordinator was letting down Steve Sarkisian the head coach. By that time, it was evident to me the head man was doing a great job rebuilding the Texas program. He had the CEO touch every head coach must have in this day and age. He was recruiting well, the culture was in a good place, and the offense and defense made strides from the year prior.

At the same time, it was clear he struggled to manufacture yards and points when his preferred style of play was off the table. That style: run the ball, play-action. As Jett Bush put it to me in August—vertical run, vertical pass. We have never truly seen that style at Texas, outside of perhaps glimpses with Casey Thompson, Xavier Worthy, and Bijan Robinson. We didn’t see it with Quinn Ewers, though Sark eventually did well to adapt to horizontal run, horizontal pass—at least until Georgia and others solved it.

Manning has the toolkit to throw it deep, and Ryan Wingo, DeAndre Moore, and Parker Livingstone have the ability to win vertically. The problem stems from the other component. The lack of run game is twofold—the offensive line is not good, and the running backs are not dynamic enough to create on their own, at least outside of Tre Wisner in Dallas.

Just as the offense isn’t a good run-blocking unit, it’s also not good at pass protection. More often than not, Manning doesn’t even have time to throw vertically if the receivers do get open.

Sark’s preferred method of football is out the window this season. Arch’s issues are a legitimate governor for Sark, but the greatest governor on this offense were the decisions that were—or weren’t—made this offseason. That starts with the head coach. That starts with Kyle Flood. Ideally, there would be a third person to assign blame—an offensive coordinator—but that guy doesn’t really exist.

If Sark had an independent offensive coordinator, there likely would have been an advocate for a running back addition, and I GUARANTEE you there would have been an advocate for offensive line additions. A case can be made that Sark was too selfless in addressing deficiencies on his side of the football. We’ve seen many head coaches devote too many resources to making sure “their side” performs well.

I can appreciate Sark’s selflessness, but these issues were obvious to the commoner. If staffers told Sark he should make key additions and he ignored them, that’s a problem. If nobody spoke up, that’s an even bigger problem. This offseason, the decision-making tree needs to be re-evaluated. Indeed, Arch is part of the problem, but he’s downhill of much larger problems.

Ian Boyd: Steve Sarkisian needs a new process for the Texas offense

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Texas’ abysmal offensive performance on the road in Kentucky the other night has triggered an enormous backlash from Longhorn fans. Generating only 179 total yards without either the pass game, run game, trick plays, quarterback runs, or absolutely anything showing real promise has many fans despondent about the team. Understandable.

Naturally in a time like this, the impulse is to reach for criticisms to lob at the coaching staff and propose solutions that would make the Longhorns into a team that more closely resembled a playoff unit. Frankly, there’s still a chance this team can manage that, although today it looks less likely than a week ago. But today, let’s try for some calm, measured analysis of where Texas is right now. Let’s consider the various questions and challenges the current Steve Sarkisian regime is facing.

Bench Arch Manning next time he plays like that!

This suggestion/critique is one I’m hearing a lot today that strikes me as being more of a punitive, angry reaction than a real suggestion on how to make this team better. The 2025 Texas Longhorns do not reach their potential as a team, nor make important growth steps for next year, if they do not establish Arch Manning as an effective quarterback for this program. There’s no point in pulling him for Matthew Caldwell unless the goal is to make Manning better.

Additionally, the issues with this offense are systemic and varied. Manning’s inconsistent play is more of a symptom than a root cause. The reason Arch looks like a future no. 1 pick one throw and a junior varsity passer at Westlake the next? He’s getting sped up and knocked out of rhythm by the struggles around him. How do you fix that? If you just roll with Caldwell you might get steadier play (big if there, how does he respond to getting rocked?), but you also cap the ceiling and potentially kneecap your franchise quarterback.

Would the Horns look better if Manning hit some of the dialed up shots Sark draws up that actually work? Absolutely. Would that raise the floor of the offense above what we saw in Lexington, KY? Yes.

Would that transform the Longhorns into a team anyone should believe is capable of winning a playoff game? No, only a consistently functional run game can do that. Would it run the risk of triggering a national ****storm that could bury the team in distractions? Yes. Could it lead to blowing Manning’s potential or losing him in the transfer portal and destroying Sark’s reputation as a quarterback guru, in turn sabotaging his sale to other 5-star quarterback recruits? Yes.

Sark’s method at quarterback is essentially go to all in with a top talent and make it work with them like a marriage. Any discussion of Texas’ quarterback situation has to keep in mind the bigger picture and strategy. Is that how other positions work? No. Should quarterback be the same as every other position? Also no. For most fans and commentators, the quarterback takes all the blame or all the credit. It’s the second most important frontward facing figure on your team behind the head coach. You can’t treat the quarterback like he’s your Will linebacker or right guard.

Benching Arch for more than a series or two if he needs to take some calming breaths is going to create a lot more questions and problems than it actually solves. It won’t help Texas run the ball on first down.

It’s time! Sark needs to hire a play-caller

Much like the calls to bench the quarterback, I’ve often found this argument and narrative to be more about punishing Sark for giving us bad football than proposing a realistic or truly helpful solution. For one, Texas doesn’t have a lot of leverage to dictate to Sark how he should run this program. What are they going to do if he says no? Hire James Franklin?

Sark could still leave and secure play-calling jobs at any number of other programs or NFL franchises if he wants to stay attached to that duty. For another, I still don’t see the problem as being about Sark the play-caller. However, there’s definitely something deeply flawed with how Sark is delegating offensive coaching on this team.

Every week it looks more and more like the offensive staffers on this team are serving mostly as compartmentalized yes men to Sark. There doesn’t seem to be meaningful pushback against him when he keeps trying to run a gameplan for each new opponent with NFL-level complexity with an offense comprised of a weak O-line, no dominant running back, shaky quarterback, and young tight ends. They inevitably botch the designs when he tries to mix in multiple formations and concepts.

What seemed like a turnaround against Oklahoma related to Texas determining to do just a few things right. Within a clear structure and design, built around two staple run plays, the whole team found confidence and roles. Against Kentucky Sark returned to grab bag gameplans with multiple designs and system influences. Why is that?

It’s the exact opposite of how the Texas defense works, where Pete Kwiatkowski arrives at multiplicity very slowly by emphasizing base defense and fundamentals before adding smaller tweaks and blitzes. When you can assemble talent like Texas, it’s hard to argue against an approach oriented around developing talent and playing with good fundamentals in basic schemes. You don’t need complexity to beat Kentucky, that’s what the talent is for.

Does Sark need a play-caller who will do that? That might help, but what could also make a big difference is having offensive staffers who can either develop players to execute this approach or who can pushback against the head coach and say, “I don’t think we can do that.” The current offensive staff appears to be saying, “yes sir,” without questions or feedback out of fear of telling the head man something he doesn’t want to hear. Or worse, they are pushing back against Sark and he’s not listening to them.

The latter is a much more serious problem and won’t be solved by trying to force him to hire an offensive coordinator with his own vision for the offense that runs counter to Sark. The former problem doesn’t necessarily need a new play-caller, just better hires and process from Sark.

Something that we’ve witnessed for a few years now at Texas is that Sark will often go hire top defensive coaches and then trust PK to make all the disparate influences and voices work together in the defensive staff room. Sometimes things don’t gel but usually they build something very effective. On offense, the Texas staff is mostly guys Sark has worked with before. There have been very few new additions other than a handful of positions coaches or young analysts. New influences or top, established offensive minds never enter the picture save for in consultant roles. God only knows what Paul Chryst, Neal Brown, or Tim Drevno have been saying or contributing. Sark is the sole source of ideation and everyone else is there to help him implement.

You can see that problem when the offense is struggling week-to-week and the solution is usually for Sark to try and play-call his way out of the problem while pulling from the grab bag. It’s like watching someone cycle through a massive Madden playbook and assuming the personnel has established proficiency in all of it. Evidently the only part of this offense Sark trusts this season is his own ability to scheme up an open receiver.

That truly is probably the most consistent piece of this offense. The Longhorns do get guys open every week. The problem is they don’t consistently execute an offense with a true identity.

So does Sark need a new offensive play-caller? He definitely needs better staffing and delegation. I’m not sure that actually needs to include play-calling in particular. However, calling for a new play-caller, new quarterback, new analyst, etc is all committing the same error as Sark. These criticisms are reaching from a grab bag for a solution to something that ultimately needs for Sark himself to embrace a different process.

This team is bad and can’t win anything important!

The 2025 Texas Longhorns are still probably going to win 8-9 regular season games and might end the year on the outside looking in on the playoffs but with satisfying victories over rivals like Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Georgia. A decidedly mixed season appears inevitable that will include plenty of reasons for fans to talk themselves into 2026 and plenty of reasons for NIL contributors to question why the ROI wasn’t higher in 2025.

As bad as the offense has been and as snake-bitten and wasted as the offseason appears to have been, this team still has elite qualities and a chance at a solid and fun season if Sark can start to truly accept what this offense is and is not. The defense and special teams have been elite and set a high floor for the overall team if paired with a remotely decent offense.

Next year when specialists Jack Bouwmeester and Mason Shipley move on there will need to be portal additions or real development from younger players. The team will also lose another wave of defensive stars to the NFL, but the young core of these two units will remain exceptionally talented and strong. If the offense can make chicken salad this season and position itself for a rebound in 2026 there’s every reason to believe in Sark’s program with Manning at the helm moving forward. If we can’t believe in that, there are deeper issues to examine.

Joe Cook: All the different versions of Steve Sarkisian aren't doing any favors for the Texas offense

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Steve Sarkisian the head coach hasn’t done much to help Steve Sarkisian the offensive play-caller in 2025. The overall O-line picture is bleak in a season the Longhorns entered as the No. 1 team in the country. Texas saw four O-linemen from the 2024 squad depart including three draft picks. Texas, Sarkisian, and offensive coordinator Kyle Flood banked on their ability to develop third- or fourth-year players or top-50 talents to make things happen for Arch Manning in his first year as the starter.

That’s a noble desire and probably goes over well on the recruiting trail, which is important. But their inability to identify the O-line as a potential pitfall, and refusing to bring in a portal O-lineman as a result, has the Texas offense in dire straits despite a 5-2 record. Much of that holds true when it comes to the Texas running back room. Sarkisian placed trust in CJ Baxter coming off an injury and Quintrevion Wisner after a standout 2024 season. He hoped for more from Christian Clark, Jerrick Gibson, and James Simon. None of those backs have been anything close to game-breaking or game-changing..

The Longhorns could not run the ball against Kentucky. They really haven’t run the ball with meaningful success all season save for what can now be considered a blip against Oklahoma. Texas’ sack-adjusted rushing total versus Kentucky was 71 yards. Sarkisian’s offense looks awful if there’s no run game to speak of, whether via Wisner or Manning at this point. The lack of an offensive line or running back room that can accomplish a semblance of what Sarkisian hopes to achieve on offense is on Sarkisian. Free agency exists and he did not make the call to bring any help in for an all-important Manning season under center whether in the trenches or in the RB room.

Even so, Steve Sarkisian the play-caller isn’t doing Steve Sarkisian the head coach any favors. Every play-caller has certain calls he’d like back. Sarkisian has been candid about how his toss play on the goal line during the 2025 Cotton Bowl is one that fits in that category. That comes with the territory.

Yesterday was a game Sarkisian would like to have back. After seemingly finding a groove with the outside zone scheme against Oklahoma, the run game was anything but a focus against Kentucky. Some grace is due because Sarkisian had to utilize a backup center. However, to abandon an identity that seemed to be forming in Dallas on the road and place the game in the hands of his erratic quarterback was a decision that Sarkisian the play-caller thought would help Sarkisian the head coach. That wasn’t the case.

Manning has not proven consistent enough to have that trust quite yet. A 12-for-27 night for 132 yards was indicative of the grab-bag play-calling Sarkisian utilized on Saturday. Manning’s average depth of target per Pro Football Focus was 6.4 yards. He had one attempt with a target 20 or more yards downfield. Sarkisian not only struggled to get his offense to establish a run game, his offense failed to threaten different parts of the field. Manning had less than a handful of throws to targets outside the numbers against Kentucky, according to PFF. The picture was remarkably straightforward for the Wildcats defense. Everything was in front of them. There was no real challenge to Mark Stoops‘ scheme.

Of course, the players are the one asked to carry out the calls. But the calls Sarkisian gave Manning and the rest of his offense didn’t do much to work around Texas’ obvious weaknesses. As a result, the Longhorn special teams and defense needed to turn in heroic efforts Saturday night. The stat sheet won’t be kind to Texas’ defense considering Kentucky gained 395 yards and held the ball for almost 40 minutes.

But the scoreboard is what matters in football and Texas’ defense made a critical goal line stand in overtime to set up a chance at victory. Sarkisian’s offense tried to squander it, but Mason Shipley rounded out a good night for the Longhorns’ special teams units by nailing a 45-yarder to win it. Credit is due to the head coach in Sarkisian for putting together a defense and special teams that can win football games in spite of poor evenings from the play-caller.

But it’s a troubling trend for a football program when the head coach and the play-caller are the same person, and neither have helped Texas approach some of the team’s preseason expectations whether lofty or reasonable.

 

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Justin Wells: Top PFF offensive grades from Texas' 16-13 overtime win over Kentucky on Saturday

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Texas escaped Lexington by the skin of its teeth with a 16-13 overtime win over Kentucky on Saturday night. Here are the offensive grades, per PFF.

OFFENSE

QB – Arch Manning, 51.8

One step forward, two steps back. He was 12-of-27 passing, 132 yards, zero touchdowns and zero turnovers. The offensive line is terrible, but he’s missing wide open receivers.

RB – Tre Wisner, 68.1, Christian Clark, 65.2

The two Texas tailbacks combined for 50 yards on 15 carries. Wisner also caught two passes out of the backfield and had a score.

WR – Parker Livingstone, 49.6, Ryan Wingo, 59.1, DeAndre Moore, 67.4

The receivers were getting open, it was just difficult for Manning and the O-line to get time. Moore notched three catches, while Wingo and Ryan Niblett added two grabs.

TE – Jack Endries, 49.2, Jordan Washington, 67.8

The tight ends combined for two catches and 24 yards receiving. You want more from this group if they aren’t adequate blockers either.

OL – Trevor Goosby, 54.4, DJ Campbell, 62.6, Brandon Baker, 56.9, Nick Brooks, 36.7, Connor Robertson, 51.5

The Longhorns offensive line is a mess. All three of UT’s sacks were credited to the freshman Brooks. Robertson and Brooks combined for 11 pressures and seven hurries. Not close to good enough. 

Justin Wells: Top PFF defensive grades from Texas' 16-13 overtime win over Kentucky on Saturday

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The Texas Longhorns defense continues to be the staple of the program. After another strong effort in defeating Kentucky, 16-13, in overtime from Lexington, here’s the defensive grades, per PFF.

DEFENSE

DL/EDGE – Hero Kanu, 71.9 Colin Simmons, 81.3, Lance Jackson, 87.0, Ethan Burke, 74.4, Zina Umeozulu, 71.6, Alex January, 76.5, Travis Shaw, 83.7, Trey Moore, 76.7

This group continues to rock the SEC. The threesome of Simmons, Burke, and Moore totaled 12 pressures, nine tackles, one forced fumble, and three sacks. Simmons is playing at another level over the last month.

LB – Anthony Hill Jr, 68.3, Liona Lefau, 69.8, Tyanthony Smith, 50.7

Hill Jr once again led the way with 12 tackles and an interception. Smith added five stops, and Lefau added four tackles. 

CB – Malik Muhammad, 73.7, Jaylon Guilbeau, 68.5, Kobe Black, 64.8

Guilbeau was really good in Lexington. He netted six tackles, one pass breakup, and a 66.3 passer rating allowed. Muhammad added five tackles and a sack. 

S/N – Michael Taaffe, 77.8, Graceson Littleton, 53.5, Jelani McDonald, 78.1

Taaffe and McDonald were outstanding on Saturday. They combined for 19 tackles, two tackles for loss, and one pass breakup. Littleton added four stops. 

 

 

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56 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Eric Nahlin: Arch Manning struggles highlight deeper Texas Longhorns offensive issues

Ian Boyd: Steve Sarkisian needs a new process for the Texas offense

Joe Cook: All the different versions of Steve Sarkisian aren't doing any favors for the Texas offense

 

Those are more nuanced takes than I would have expected.  

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(Scipio Tex) 2025 Kentucky Post Mortem: Offense

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There’s not much that we saw in Lexington that we didn’t see in Columbus, Gainesville, or at home against UTEP. Just wors(er). The offensive line was very bad, Arch Manning missed multiple open throws, and there’s no offensive Superman who can make the offense right even when it’s wrong. This is a horrid offense. By the eye test, by any metric, by any analytic.

The only touchdown “drive” came from the UK 5 yard line after the Ryan Niblett punt return. Three field goals came on drives of 40, 21, and -2 yards. Texas punted 8 times. Texas’ first drive after the half – after “adjustments” – was a three-and-out. The Longhorns managed only eight first downs against a lower tier SEC defense, one of those obtained via penalty.

The hapless Horn offense totaled 179 yards at 3.3 yards per play while surrendering 5 sacks. The only comparable effort in the Sark Era was the abysmal offensive performance against 2022 TCU (Ewers was 17 of 39 for 171, Texas ran for 28 yards, no offensive touchdowns, also 3.3 yards per play). That TCU team went 13-2 and lost in the national title game. 2-4 Kentucky won’t make a bowl game.

In overtime, the offense was so hapless that it ran four plays for -2 yards (including an opening play edge run that drew a Baker hold) after the defense’s clutch goal line stand, forcing Mason Shipley into a 45 yard game winner that’s far from a sure thing for a college kicker on the road.

I pointed out that Oklahoma games are often a one off – for good or bad – but I hoped that the game plan in Dallas had demonstrated an offense with a definable floor and some core competencies to build on. Texas had demonstrated facility with rediscovered outside zone, Arch Manning coolly hit check downs and maneuvered the pocket well, the offensive line was at least aggressive, and the Longhorns played risk averse, winning offense. This offense has no floor. 

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It’s a morass. Texas went away from several of the things that had worked against OU and seven total zone runs of any variety (mostly all in the 2nd half) on 65 offensive plays is puzzling. You don’t “burn” outside zone. It’s not a triple reverse throwback pass. It’s a malleable run concept that can be blocked against almost any front and the fronts that destroy it, Kentucky wasn’t in much.

Obviously, this offense was botched in the offseason and in prior recruiting/development cycles, but the personnel are who they are. Game plan and execution are now supreme. What are we doing to help them? I don’t really understand what we’re doing. 

QUARTERBACK

Manning was under withering pressure and there were at least a dozen plays where he had little to no chance. Few QBs in college football have as inept a protection scheme or have been supported so little by the larger ecosystem. That leaves a residue on any passer.

It’s also worth your time to consider how Kentucky’s freshman QB went 31 of 39 for 258 yards throwing to a bottom-feeder SEC receiving corps behind a rebuilt portal-heavy offensive line against the most elite unit on the field – the Texas defense. They schemed a lot of nickel and dime stuff up and their QB hit it all. This play is emblematic of so much:

Not to mention this:

There were also multiple plays where he had an easy read, a fine pocket, a wide open target, and he blew it. Particularly early on when Kentucky felt less confident bringing their pressure packages. In that sense, this game is much more comparable to his Ohio State and UTEP performances, though he had Florida-level pressure.

When your QB can’t hit easy throws, you can’t protect, and you can’t or won’t run the ball effectively, there’s no recipe for offense. I’d like to point to some specific concept where there was a silver lining but #16 struggled across the board, though he did make a few early good third and long throws. He finished 12 of 27 for 132 yards. At one point, he had 9 straight incompletions, threatening his season high of 10 against UTEP.

He’s now started seven games for Texas and he’s been a net offensive liability in three of them. Interestingly, it seems independent of the quality of the defense faced. Ohio State – elite, UTEP – terrible, Kentucky – below average. To his credit, he didn’t turn the ball over and that fact – along with Texas defense and special teams – is why Kentucky was able to take Texas to the woodshed for large portions of the game, but still came up short. You can’t question his physical toughness.

OFFENSIVE LINE

 

Center and left guard continue to be a massive problem, no matter who starts there. Brooks gave up three sacks and six pressures. Robertson gave up 5 hurries and 5 pressures. Neither run-blocked well. Flood has failed at teaching protections and apparently no one in the building will tell Sark that pull protections are a fail when a defense smells blood.

Below we impressively combine bad pull protection with weak slide protection. This is supposed to be a gotcha play down the sideline to Endries on the fake screen. The pull “deception” in the pass protection proves useless to the play’s success. It just guarantees an immediate sack. 

Amusingly, if we’d actually run this as a screen with Endries leading, it would have gotten 8-10 yards. But we never went back to it, because Sark grab bag. We are just throwing stuff at the wall. “Let’s try a shot play from…a look! Also, is there any way that we can combine the two protections that no one on our team can execute?”

Goosby was average to below average. Baker had a tough penalty and got bullied some in the gap run game. Both tackles did well in outside zone last weekend. So…don’t do it? Take a bow DJ Campbell. You are the only OL who played passable football.

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

The tight ends were almost universally awful in run blocking and pass protection wasn’t much better. We decided to go to the pre-OU playbook, so our tight ends found themselves asked to win at the point of attack and they can’t. The Texas receivers weren’t relevant to the game and their typically good blocking was absent. MOORE HAS TO STAY IN BOUNDS LATE.

I’m not sure how you review a unit that couldn’t get legitimate targets.

RUNNING BACK

Wisner is a third-down change-up back miscast as an every-down back that we deprived of the one run concept where he excels. I thought he ran fine, but he wasn’t able to do much after contact. He’s game in pass protection, but lost some physics battles. Wisner is currently averaging 3.8 yards per carry on the season. He has two carries longer than 10 yards.

Christian Clark had a hard run for 8 yards where he broke a tackle. That was the game-high longest run for the RBs. If you count RB runs and called runs with Arch, Texas ran 23 times for just 54 yards.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The offense can certainly play much better, but there is no discernible floor and the ceiling isn’t exactly a soaring cathedral. Starkville is going to be rough. 

 

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Cedric Golden: Texas had enough offense to beat Kentucky, but will have to find more in the SEC

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LEXINGTON, Ky. — Texas football turned Kroger Field into the biggest escape room in America on Saturday. A 16-13 overtime win over last-place Kentucky was as ugly as it sounded, but the No. 21 Longhorns will take it. Cole Brevard, Michael Taaffe and Liona Lefeau stoned running back Dante Dowdell in overtime to set up Mason Shipley's 45-yard game-winning field goal, but the real concern moving forward has to be with an offense that's averaging just 20 points a game in conference play.

"It's good to be 2-1 in the SEC," said coach Steve Sarkisian, who slapped the table at the end of his postgame interview.  He's the happy coach who was driving the getaway car out of Lexington, but he is also smart enough to know his current offense isn't cutting it if this team has any realistic conference title/playoff aspirations. Beset by some old but familiar struggles that crept back into quarterback Arch Manning's game, the Horns called upon a reliable defense that pulled this one out of the fire despite tripping over their tongues on the way to the visitor's locker room. They had been on the field for 86 plays and nearly 40 minutes of regulation.

Manning completed 12 of 27 passes for 132 passes and committed no turnovers for the second straight game, but he didn't resemble the quarterback who was an efficient 21 of 27 against Oklahoma. He also wore a pained expression sitting alongside Taaffe, his buddy who was pumping sunshine in response to what he called negative questions in the interview room. "I think we get the best of both worlds because it almost feels like a loss for the offense," Manning said. "We'll be able to attack it this week in practice and learn a lot and improve." 

The Horns finished with 179 yards  — the lowest of the Sarkisian era  —  and could have been on the business end of an embarrassing setback and the end of any title hopes had they lost to a team that's 1-11 in its last 12 conference games dating back to last season. 

Texas is 5-2 overall and 2-1 in league play, but the offense is in dire need of a reboot. That said, getting a win over the the last-place team in the SEC is much better than the alternative. Moving forward, Sarkisian must figure out how his quarterback can look so good in one game and then not have it the next. Manning did complete a massive third-down slant on the pivotal final drive to put the Horns in front, but he has to be much more than a part-time playmaker if the Horns want to beat teams like Vanderbilt, Georgia and Texas A&M.

Right now, Ryan Niblett is their best playmaker and he barely plays on offense. His punt returns of 43 and 45 yards led to 10 points, but the "O" had no go during regulation. Manning is far from a one-man gang, but there are a couple of non-negotiables that come with playing the position. For one, you have to complete the simple throws and he missed far too many wide open receivers. Still, a win in the SEC counts as long as one outscores the other team.

Mississippi State is no longer a slam dunk on the road. The cowbells will be clanging and Stark-Vegas will be primed to try to spring an upset over a 5-2 opponent that has next to no wiggle room when it comes to its College Football Playoff hopes. The Horns played a complete game in all phases against Oklahoma, but Sarkisian was the first to say this team's identity is one of defense and special teams.

That has to be a tough pill to swallow for Sark, whose reputation as an elite play-caller has been destroyed in his fifth season. They're winning, but a storm is coming if the offense doesn't hold up its end.

Kirk Bohls: Bench Arch Manning? Steve Sarkisian says no after a close win over Kentucky

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LEXINGTON, Ky. — Texas’ offense was so bad Saturday night that it hit rock bottom. This time rock bottom almost hit back. Unranked and winless in three previous SEC games, Kentucky came oh so close to pulling off an absolute stunner at Kroger Field Saturday night, but No. 21 Texas wasn’t to be denied. Pressed to find any semblance of offense at all, Steve Sarkisian turned to his placekicker Mason Shipley who calmly kicked  39-yard field goal in the final 57 seconds to take the lead and then a 45-yard field goal in overtime for a critical 16-13 win.

That was almost all the offense a 5-2 Texas team could muster against a 12½-point underdog. But it didn’t matter because it has a defense that can pass muster on any championship-caliber team. “We had to dig deep and play another play,” said Texas safety Michael Taaffe, who was instrumental in the game-winning goal-line stand. “We’re built for these moments.”

The Longhorns held the Wildcats (2-4) to one touchdown and two field goals even though the hosts reached Longhorn territory regularly and drove to Texas’ 15-, 35-, 28- and 27-yard lines and scored only a field goal on those series. Finally, the Wildcats were stopped after a first down at the 3 and stonewalled on a fourth-and-1 at the goal line in overtime.

“At the end of the day, you play to the strengths of your team,” Sarkisian said, “and the strengths are our defense and special teams. You can ride that, but to do that, you have to play an efficient offensive football, and we’re not being efficient enough. You try to shrink the game, but if a team runs upwards of 90 plays, sooner or later the dam will break.”

Edge rusher Colin Simmons, one of the Longhorns most responsible for pulling out the win with three sacks and a forced fumble, disputed his head coach. “I think he meant to say defense, special teams and offense,” Simmons said. “It ain’t just our defense and special teams.”

It sure looked like it, however. Besides Shipley’s heroics — the first game-winning field goal of his career — and two electrifying punt returns of 43 and 45 yards by Ryan Niblett to set up Texas’ only touchdown and one of Shipley’s three field goals, there was precious little offense. It’s never good if your punt returner is your best offensive player.

But those two and punter Jack Bouwmeester — who pinned Kentucky inside its 20 six times on the night — combined with the spectacular defense to carry the day despite being on the field an exhaustion 86 plays. The defense is as good as any team in college football. But this is a Texas offense that has serious issues, and the biggest two are the shortcomings of its offensive line and its quarterback.

Texas will probably not be able to fix the line till the offseason. Quarterback? Who really knows? If Arch Manning doesn’t make drastic improvements soon, Texas might have to seriously consider replacing him with backup Matthew Caldwell. But here’s betting it won’t because it would create a national firestorm of bad publicity.

Manning followed up a gutsy effort in a losing cause against Florida and a brilliant performance in the win over Oklahoma by completing just 12 of 27 for 132 yards and frequently overthrowing open receivers or rocketing passes that required more touch. He did complete a key, 9-yard pass to DeAndre Moore Jr. late to set up Shipley’s next-to-last field goal.

Asked if he would even consider replacing Manning at this point, Sarkisian said, “I would not.” It’d be hard to blame him, however, because the redshirt sophomore has been a scatter-armed thrower who struggles to find any semblance of rhythm or consistency and is holding the team back with his subpar play. In his defense, the line gave up three sacks and were mostly responsible for a paltry 47 yards rushing and 179 total yards, Texas’ fewest since it eked out only 163 in a 38-3 loss to No. 11 Notre Dame in 2015.

Manning had the Longhorns’ longest run of the night on a 14-yard scramble. Quintrevion Wisner, a 1,000-yard rusher last year, carried the ball a dozen times for just 37 yards with no run longer than 8 yards. To his credit, Manning never dodges the press or a tough question. “The defense had our back all night,” a dour Manning said. “Ultimately I got to play better. We’ve got to start faster. Obviously it was a rough night for the offense.”

Taaffe, one of Manning’s best friends, felt compelled to school the media for asking such rough questions. “These questions seem negative,” Taaffe said. “It’s hard to win in the SEC. ... We freakin’ won. Let’s put a smile on our faces. The show goes on, and we’re dancing.” Dancing would be a major improvement because most of the night the offense was too sluggish to move at all. Texas punted on eight of its 13 possessions.

The Longhorn defense, on the other hand, deserved so much better for shutting down the Wildcats offense for three quarters, limiting Kentucky to a field goal until a pass interference call and then a 16-yard scramble by quarterback Cutter Boley tied the game at on the sixth play of the fourth quarter. For the Longhorns to remain as an SEC contender with a treacherous road game against vastly improved Mississippi State next week, Sarkisian better find an offense and find it fast.

Quite simply, it’s a mess. Save for the second half against Oklahoma last week, the Longhorn offense has been pitiful in all four of its games against Power 4 opponents. It’s scored just one offensive touchdown in each of its past two games against Oklahoma and Kentucky. Texas must try to put a ghastly offensive show behind it. The numbers are troubling enough but the eye test falls even shorter.

Only eight first downs. Five of 16 on third down. Thirty-one fewer snaps than Kentucky. Almost 19 more possession minutes for the Wildcats. A meager 1.7 yards per carry for Texas. Without Niblett’s 45-yard punt return to the Kentucky 5-yard line, the Longhorns might never have gotten closer to the end zone since his runback set up a 1-yard touchdown run by Wisner.

The Wildcats had their chance from the 1 as well. But Texas had other plans as Taaffe, Cole Brevard and Liona Lefauuu rallied to put the finishing touches on the goal-line stand and stop the diving Dante Dowdell from ever getting airborne. “When it’s one yard,” Taaffe said, “it’s your guys versus our guys.” And Texas’ guys won out.

That’s all Sarkisian wanted to focus on even though he recognizes the troubles the Longhorns must address. Ultimately the scoreboard showed a second straight Texas win. Which is why a happy but very frustrated Sarkisian finished his press conference by slapping the table hard with his hand and shouting, “We’re 2-1 in the SEC” on his way out of the room.

 

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(Scipio Tex) Looking at Texas' postgame win expectancy and net success rate from Kentucky

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Texas won on the only place that counts – the scoreboard – and that’s the final word in any contest, but beneath the unsubtle binary of wins and losses, under the hood, that W is hiding a lot of deeper problems. From Parker Fleming’s excellent StatsOfWar…(look over on the far left)

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All net success rate does is strip out some noise and present a view of how two teams compared in the down to down business of moving the football. Games are won and lost with explosives, special teams, turnovers, etc, and looking at net success rate just shows us how close the margins were. It’s a good diagnostic to go back and look at a game and learn something:

  • Positive net success rate and lost? Let’s identify what went wrong – were those decisive plays sustainable/likely to carry over into future performance?
  • Huge net success rate and didn’t win by much? Where might you have failed to take advantage of good situations or made mistakes on drives that altered the score? What does that tell us about going forward
  • Super even net success rate? Let’s look at the weird plays! What does that tell us about the relative strength of the two teams and how they might perform going forward?

Winning games on punt returns and defensive stands is unsustainable if one unit is actively working to lose the game. Sprinkle in a turnover and a punt return penalty and we lose by double digits in Lexington. The sunnier view is that Kentucky is about to go on a run! From another statistical perspective, here’s Bill Connelly’s Postgame Win Expectancy.

Same, same, but different. A 16.1% postgame win expectancy made the Longhorns the least likely winner of the college football week. The takeaway? Take the win and run. But the staff and team – behind closed doors – must understand that our offense played badly losing football, it wasn’t an “off day”, nor is it explained by the fact that “it’s hard to win on the road in the SEC.”

What they say for public consumption is irrelevant. But they have to know that the win isn’t vindication. They need to initiate some fixes. Some that needed to start yesterday, many after the season is over.

Justin Nash: Texas players' comments hint at the strength of the Longhorn culture

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It can be easy for one side of the ball to grow frustrated when they are playing well and the other side isn’t. In a world where culture is often elusive and just a coaching buzzword, the Longhorns clearly are a tightly bound group that refuses to crack. After multiple media members had some critical questions pointed at the offense, here are some post game quotes that should give you confidence in Texas’ culture.

Colin Simmons was asked a question about Steve Sarkisian explaining that Texas was a defensive and special teams oriented football team at the moment. Simmons made sure to note the Texas team included the offense, asserting the mentality that they are one single team, not separate teams making up one whole.

The opening still frame to this video says a lot. Arch Manning is clearly dejected after a lackluster performance on the road in the SEC. He was taking questions about his play, ones that were rather negative. While that is understandable, Michael Taaffe was having none of it. Sticking up for the other No. 16 on the team, Taaffe spoke out and made sure to commend the next positive question towards Manning.

Anthony Hill Jr. took to the mic with DeAndre Moore Jr., Hill was asked the same question as Simmons above. He took a very senior approach to the question. “I’ll say we we take the the defensive side of the ball very seriously,” Hill said. “We have a lot of leaders, so of course we want to help out the offense. We know we’re very young on that side, and we got a lot of older guys on the defense. So we kind of want to help them out and kind of just keep lifting them up, keep pushing them because we know that time’s coming.”

Moore was also asked about his confidence in Manning, and his answer gave no hint at a lack of confidence in the lead signal caller for the Longhorns offense. “I have the utmost confidence in 16,” Moore said. “I see the way that Arch works. I see the way that he handles criticism and I see the way that he handles his business. So, I have the utmost respect for him and the utmost confidence that he’s going to come out here next week and do what he needs to do.”

Texas players aren’t naive. They know there are issues to work out and problems to take head on. You can hear that in a later answer from Hill Jr. when asked about the culture and the youth of the team in SEC matchups. “I’ll say that we have a lot of leaders on this football team that can help the younger guys in in these moments, because I’ve been in some tough games,” Hill said.

“So, of course, I’m going go to the offense and go look at Nick (Brooks), go look at some of these younger guys and be like, ‘hey, it’s time, man. It’s time to go execute. It’s not time to get down on yourself. It’s time to up your up your standard, up to your level.'” This team is about lifting each other up when they struggle, and when the other side of the ball is struggling, the other feels a need to step up and carry the load without keeping tally. There’s no division on the Texas football team as it works to improve its 5-2 record, a byproduct of a strong culture.

 

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(Scipio Tex) 2025 Kentucky Postmortem: Defense/Special Teams

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The Longhorns defense and special teams set up the Longhorn offense with multiple short fields (with drives starting on the Kentucky 5, 42, and 46 yard line, respectively) that resulted in 10 of Texas’ 16 points, while the Longhorn defense came up huge in overtime with a timely goal line stand as well as a turnover on downs on Kentucky’s first possession of the game deep in Texas territory.

The Longhorn defense surrendered 395 yards, but it took 86 Kentucky plays to achieve it and they ultimately surrendered only 13 points. That’s 4.6 yards per play and those paper cuts were irritating but ultimately not life threatening. Kentucky didn’t do a single thing on offense that I didn’t prep you for. At times, their ability to extend drives was frustrating, but the Texas offense bears substantial blame for being useless for long portions of the game with four 3 and outs in the 2nd half. I also thought Cutter Boley did some nice things with his arm and legs.

Kentucky had a bit of success late with 10 points in their last four possessions, including 157 yards of offense and the game tying field goal to take it to overtime, but one of the functions of having a hopeless offensive performance paired with a good defensive one, is that you quickly lose any hope for the offense and roundly curse at the defense for every seven yard gain. It contorts your psychology.

One unit had expectations. The other didn’t. That’s why you’ll hear folks bemoan Texas not grabbing any of the four fumbles. Expectations. The first Ryan Niblett punt return touchdown was set up by a defensive 3 and out highlighted by a Trey Moore sack that nearly resulted in a safety. Kicking from their end zone, Kentucky had to think about punt block and Texas was thinking return.

Niblett did a very nice job, but return right was a great call and Warren Roberson deserves props for his great initial block that freed him. Props to Jordon-Johnson Rubell for his work as well. The punter falling like a six-year old playing flag football was a special bonus. 

Niblett added another big return later, trying his best to win the game for Texas. 

Poor effort from the Kentucky gunner letting Ryan run through him, but another nice job of creating a path up the sideline. Note the high IQ block from Jelani McDonald (it’s not a block in the back if I have my back to him and my hands up!) and the escort from Landwehr and JJR. Finally, this was an epic goal-line stand. 

I don’t question the decision from the typically conservative Mark Stoops, but I do question the play call after they were stuffed up the middle on 3rd down. Great team effort on both the 3rd and 4th down stuffs on the 1 yard line, but Travis Shaw gets a special shout out for the 4th down penetration as Taaffe and all of the linebackers come in over the top and pull Boley backwards. The Texas defense and special teams dragged this team over the finish line. Hell of a job.

Defensive Line

You can always tell by who the Longhorns flank Hero Kanu with what kind of early concepts that they’re expecting to face. This time, Alex January got the start and he made an impression on the first play of the game with a nice run stuff. I like #97 a lot. When he keeps his pads down, he impacts the run game. He plays hard as hell. Every DT played well as snaps got extended with seemingly endless Wildcat possessions.

This was Travis Shaw’s best game at Texas. Big time effort on key short yardage plays, held up to double teams, and active two-gapping. Kanu was extremely stout against the run and had a forced fumble. Brevard was good. Great effort from the DT room. Boley slipped away from them a couple of times, but it happens. Kentucky’s OL isn’t very polished but they’re tough and Texas took it to them. 

On the edge, several strong performances. Simmons dominated with 3 sacks and a forced fumble. He acquitted himself well in the postgame, too. Ethan Burke was overshadowed by Simmons’ impact, but had a great game against the run and compressed the pocket in the passing game. Trey Moore had an unblocked dream shot near safety when Boley didn’t understand his protection near the goal line and Trey turned in a strong game in every facet playing both edge and off the ball linebacker. Lance Jackson was very good again. He’s absurdly talented. Brad Spence missed a tackle and didn’t hustle on a screen.

LINEBACKER

Hill fit the run beautifully on some key short yardage plays and added an athletic interception to his game high 12 tackles. He logged 83 plays and never lost a step. #0 is sore today. Ty Smith had a couple of bad run fits. Lefau was really good against the run and fit his gaps well. Strong effort from a LB group against an offense that asked them to do a little bit of everything: fill downhill against power runs, keep track of slippery tight ends, chase screens all day.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Superb safety play from Taaffe and McDonald. They’re indispensable. They were out on the field a combined 175 plays when you include special teams. Both were extremely physical in run support and sound in the passing game. Kentucky targeted them a combined 6 times for a total of 9 yards. Is that good? Guilbeau was a target early and then again late. He had a nice PBU but they also got him down the sideline for a PI.

Graceson Littleton was also targeted a bit in the screen game and once downfield, hitting him for 50 yards on 5 targets. Nice game from Muhammad. He notched a sack on a corner blitz (well, lined up at nickel), had some nice tackles, but two other misses. Kentucky was largely content to throw screens, to their tight ends, with an occasional shot. That’s the offense.

It’s worth contrasting that their QB, under comparable pressure to Manning, hit 31 of 39 for 258 yards. He hit open throws, but those throws were available to him and are constantly drilled. There’s probably a happy compromise somewhere between Kentucky’s predictability and our grab bag.

Special Teams

Box score scanning can have its drawbacks, even on special teams. Jack Bouwmeester averaged “only” 42 yards a punt, but 6 of his 8 punts pinned UK inside their 20 yard line and three returned punts yielded only 14 yards. Mason Shipley had ice in his veins on the road, hitting from 53, 45, 39. And yes, I still think it’s a shank every time it comes off of his foot. For all of the praise for Niblett and the defense, let’s not forget that victory was assured by our field goal kicker nailing shots from 45 and 53 on the road in high pressure situations.

Final Thoughts

Take a bow D/ST. You won a SEC game on the road by yourselves. Don’t tell Colin Simmons I wrote that. 

Evan Vieth: Steve Sarkisian has no plans to give up playcalling duties

Quote

Despite yet another disappointing performance from his offense, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has no plans to give up playcalling duties. “That’s why I got hired. I was a really good offensive coordinator,” Sarkisian said, shaking his head when asked if he had thought about giving up playcalling duties. “I believe in what we’re able to do; every year we have to continually evolve.”

Sarkisian has been receiving backlash for the way he’s managed his offense. Entering his fifth year as the head of the Texas Longhorns football team, Sarkisian’s offense ranks 80th in yards per game and 81st in scoring, easily the lowest ranks in each statistical category since he was hired in Austin.

Often seen as a quarterback whisperer and an offensive guru due to his days as the offensive coordinator at Alabama and the Atlanta Falcons, Sarkisian’s offense is far behind the standard expected from a playcaller entering his fifth year at a school the stature of Texas. Still, Sarkisian has no plans on changing his duties, comparing his job to something more relatable to the average fan.

“If I was the best outside sales guy and I had a startup company, surely I’m going to go to the sales meetings if I’m trying to sell something,” Sarkisian said. “If that’s one of your strengths, I’m always going to tap into the strengths that I have, and I think being a playcaller on offense is one of my strengths. Some may disagree. That’s okay.”

These quotes all come after Texas’ worst offensive performance under the Sarkisian era, scoring 16 total points and averaging 3.3 yards per play. It was easily Texas’ lowest time of possession since Sarkisian came to town, and quarterback Arch Manning completed just 44% of his passes for 132 yards. Sarkisian was also asked about critiquing himself as a playcaller, removing that aspect of his coaching from the rest of the duties of a head coach.

“Like I do after every game, I look in the mirror,” Sarkisian said. “I can look at a lot of different things within a game, good, bad, and different of the result, but I’m always looking in the mirror first to say, ‘Okay, what could I have done differently? What could I have done better, not only for the offense, but for the team?’ And so I’m very comfortable doing that. I’ve been doing this a long time.”

Despite making it clear that he will remain the playcaller at Texas, he was quick to critique his game. Sarkisian most blamed himself for the decision to run to the right on the first play of overtime, putting tackle Brandon Baker in a tough spot resulting in a holding penalty. That mindset trickled through the rest of the offense, from calling RPOs and zone reads at the correct time to aligning his players to give Manning the best chance at success.

“At the end of the day, offensively, I’ve got to do a better job. I’ve got to do a better job of putting all of our players in position to be successful,” Sarkisian said. “That’s blocking people, that’s throwing the ball to open people, that’s running routes precisely where they need to be. That’s on nobody but me. When you can look in the mirror first and say I’m responsible to try to get this fixed and get better at it, I’m very comfortable with that.”

There’s no plan for change in Austin, but there is room for self-reflection and improvement for the head of the program. What lies ahead for this offense is yet to be seen, but Sarkisian plans to evolve week-to-week to give Manning and his players the best chance to succeed.

 

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