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On 12/29/2025 at 7:30 PM, satyanash said:

Because NFL fans want CFB to become a bastardized version of the NFL, where the regular season is meaningless and 7-9 teams can and do make the playoffs.

Compare the intensity of Texas-Oklahoma or Alabama-Auburn or Ohio State-Michigan to the Dallas-Philadelphia or Bears-Packers. NFL rivalries are no match for CFB ones because half the damn league makes it to the playoffs.

NFL fans will literally watch their teams rest starters left and right towards the end of the season to secure playoff berths, and then demand that CFB align to that model while claiming it won't affect the meaningfulness of regular season games 🙄

Indiana looks like an unstoppable force. Of the teams left, Miami is built to turn the game into a rock fight like the Big Ten CCG and somehow stumble into a NC. It would be very unsatisfying, like those NYG Super Bowl winners that derailed clearly better NE teams. Except it would be screwing up a magical year by a non-traditional power. Open question as to whether this is a better system than just matching two teams that had magical years.

Other scattershots: Lots of griping about the G5 and then a blue blood SEC team and a consensus first round bye pick looked equally inept. And the cold truth is that only ND and Texas have a legit case to complain about being left out; you could have put them in place of Bama and TTU just as easily as JMU or Tulane.

But ND and Texas are also capable of laying eggs against both good comp and mediocre comp, as demonstrated by the regular season. The uncomfortable reality is that there is no good way to get to the top 4, 12, 16, 24– whatever— without some arbitrary cutoffs and also letting in some teams that aren’t great. There aren’t 12 actual NC contenders.

Finally, this is the tweet of the year and 95 percent of CFB analysis whether on message boards or from “ball knowers” boils down to this.

The hot takes of “FRAUD!” every time a team loses is so tiring. It needs to go away in 2026

Scoring 3 or 0 makes you a fraud tho

Most of the regular football posters understand what happened with Tech. The vulnerability was identified way the fuck before 1JAN26.
The salve in the wound for the past 18 hours or so, are the trolling posters or folks who never even comment in the real discussions, giving us their thorough breakdowns of the games and the PO system. They bring a giggle or 2.

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

As do the following phrases:

“Tuddy”

“Sark is in his bag”

“Jawja”

“Natty”

25 minutes ago, Iceman said:

Most of the regular football posters understand what happened with Tech. The vulnerability was identified way the fuck before 1JAN26.
The salve in the wound for the past 18 hours or so, are the trolling posters or folks who never even comment in the real discussions, giving us their thorough breakdowns of the games and the PO system. They bring a giggle or 2.

Elite on one side of the ball, pretty good on the other. A season where you mostly only played teams that were a level or several levels beneath you talent-wise. Played a very good team, kept making mistakes, things snowballed and you looked much less competitive than you could have.

This is not at all an unusual outcome. Oregon is a program in particular that has seen it happen to them a few times in years past.

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Indiana looks like an unstoppable force. Of the teams left, Miami is built to turn the game into a rock fight like the Big Ten CCG and somehow stumble into a NC. It would be very unsatisfying, like those NYG Super Bowl winners that derailed clearly better NE teams. Except it would be screwing up a magical year by a non-traditional power. Open question as to whether this is a better system than just matching two teams that had magical years.

Other scattershots: Lots of griping about the G5 and then a blue blood SEC team and a consensus first round bye pick looked equally inept. And the cold truth is that only ND and Texas have a legit case to complain about being left out; you could have put them in place of Bama and TTU just as easily as JMU or Tulane.

But ND and Texas are also capable of laying eggs against both good comp and mediocre comp, as demonstrated by the regular season. The uncomfortable reality is that there is no good way to get to the top 4, 12, 16, 24– whatever— without some arbitrary cutoffs and also letting in some teams that aren’t great. There aren’t 12 actual NC contenders.

Finally, this is the tweet of the year and 95 percent of CFB analysis whether on message boards or from “ball knowers” boils down to this.

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

The hot takes of “FRAUD!” every time a team loses is so tiring. It needs to go away in 2026

Scoring 3 or 0 makes you a fraud tho

I was having this discussion yesterday, it’s gotten so annoying. Also overreactions to every result and extrapolating it to certainties. What’s really being exposed is the absurdity of realignment, mega conference scheduling, and having to make decisions based on subjectivity and speculation. Aggy and Ole Miss had weak SEC schedules, one flailed out immediately the other is in the semis. Miami didn’t even play for their conference title because of a five way tie atop the ACC and is in the semis while also putting to bed any argument that they didn’t deserve the spot. The Big 12 got one team in which is probably right and isn’t the first CFP shut out, the other two were in the 4 team setup with much larger margins of victory, not to mention that ASU played well just last year. Now we have the bye teams losing (except IU). It all supports my plan to do away with CCGs and have a playin round the first week of December of the 9-24 ranked teams, then a 16 team playoff with games weekly instead of huge time gaps between rounds. I agree with Lanning that the NFL should give December Saturdays back to CFB.

Edited by 'stache

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

I was having this discussion yesterday, it’s gotten so annoying. Also overreactions to every result and extrapolating it to certainties. What’s really being exposed is the absurdity of realignment, mega conference scheduling, and having to make decisions based on subjectivity and speculation. Aggy and Ole Miss had weak SEC schedules, one flailed out immediately the other is in the semis. Miami didn’t even play for their conference title because of a five way tie atop the ACC and is in the semis while also putting to bed any argument that they didn’t deserve the spot. The Big 12 got one team in which is probably right and isn’t the first CFP shut out, the other two were in the 4 team setup with much larger margins of victory, not to mention that ASU played well just last year. Now we have the bye teams losing (except IU). It all supports my plan to do away with CCGs and have a playin round the first week of December of the 9-24 ranked teams, then a 16 team playoff with games weekly instead of huge time gaps between rounds. I agree with Lanning that the NFL should give up December Saturdays and give them back to CFB.

Yep. Just adjust the schedule. Top 4 teams get a bye and home game if no expansion, 2 weeks after CCG games. Tell Army-Navy (really, CBS) to kick rocks and use that weekend for R1 home games for 5-12 or if you go 16 teams, everyone plays the week after a CCG.

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

As do the following phrases:

“Tuddy”

“Sark is in his bag”

“Jawja”

Bone to pick about this one. What DO you say when you have a coach who suffers from Dissociative Identity Disorder as a playcaller and is currently in Dr. Henry Jekyll mode? That's an awful lot to type. In his bag gets the point across nicely without the fancy medical terms.

35 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yep. Just adjust the schedule. Top 4 teams get a bye and home game if no expansion, 2 weeks after CCG games. Tell Army-Navy (really, CBS) to kick rocks and use that weekend for R1 home games for 5-12 or if you go 16 teams, everyone plays the week after a CCG.

There needs to be a good way to jettison some of the bowl sites to move the games to campus in the 2nd round and not have to go beyond 12 if you stay with the top 4 getting byes. Rose, Sugar, Orange trade off the final four and championship. Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach...sorry as you don't really play in a site that's historic combined with all but the Fiesta has a championship game in it leading up to the playoff. But I'm sure we'll go to 16 and it won't matter.

12 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Completely agree, they should shuffle the rankings within reason like the NCAA does in every other sport.

Ole Miss and Oregon could have swapped positions would have eliminated 3 of these 4 rematches.

33 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yep. Just adjust the schedule. Top 4 teams get a bye and home game if no expansion, 2 weeks after CCG games. Tell Army-Navy (really, CBS) to kick rocks and use that weekend for R1 home games for 5-12 or if you go 16 teams, everyone plays the week after a CCG.

No one wants to hear it but a major issue is that the NCAA doesn’t run the CFP, and it should have been given to them when a decision was made to go away from BCS. They manage to put on competitive, watchable, fun tournaments in every other sport and at lower levels of football that balance accessibility with a good product. That’s why you need a governing body, not a bunch of self-interested execs grubbing and fussing.

I don’t think that solutions that downgrade, discourage, or eliminate traditional rivalries are the fix. College football won’t get better by fewer people watching Army-Navy, it will just make Army-Navy worse.

Lots of parallels between boxing at its height and FBS IMO, that can lead to a collapse in cultural relevancy even as the money washes around. No decent governing body and an unsatisfactory title system; perverse incentives for big names to duck each other; too many cooks in the kitchen fighting over purses, obsession with immediate TV payouts and not long-term fan interest.

Just now, 956 Worldwide said:

I don’t think that solutions that downgrade, discourage, or eliminate traditional rivalries are the fix. College football won’t get better by fewer people watching Army-Navy, it will just make Army-Navy worse.

Move it to rivalry week with every other rivalry game

4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

.

I don’t think that solutions that downgrade, discourage, or eliminate traditional rivalries are the fix. College football won’t get better by fewer people watching Army-Navy, it will just make Army-Navy worse.

What is the logic behind this subjective statement?

If fewer people watch Army-Navy, how will that make an entire sport worse?

The Miami situation has me doubting where Texas is right now overall.

There's no doubt we were playing our best ball end of season, and no doubt we would have been better than aggie, ou, and bum ass Alabama. As well as the G5 schools.

But would Miami have rag dolled us? Seems likely.

Also Ole Miss amazing performance against uga and the refs last night.. was this a perfect storm or was uga not as amazing as we thought?

Hate to be that guy but it seems for the second year in a row Texas caught uga at their best in the regular season.

Edited by BurgleBro

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

What is the logic behind this subjective statement?

If fewer people watch Army-Navy, how will that make an entire sport worse?

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

What is the logic behind this subjective statement?

If fewer people watch Army-Navy, how will that make an entire sport worse?

I said it will make the Army-Navy game worse without making college football better.

But to the point— if think CFB is better when we don’t have a moment to all celebrate the uniqueness of the coolest and most meaningful game of all, then we just aren’t watching the same sport for the same reasons. I like that I don’t have to choose between Army-Navy and all the other rivalry games. It’s OK, team ESPN will win regardless.

6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I said it will make the Army-Navy game worse without making college football better.

But to the point— if think CFB is better when we don’t have a moment to all celebrate the uniqueness of the coolest and most meaningful game of all, then we just aren’t watching the same sport for the same reasons. I like that I don’t have to choose between Army-Navy and all the other rivalry games. It’s OK, team ESPN will win regardless.

I think this is a subjective statement based on your personal and selfish biases and that shouldn’t be a determining factor for the CFP and its much needed schedule changes.

Why am I required to watch college football for the same reason you are? And If I’m not, that doesn’t mean I don’t think the Army-Navy game is cool or unique.

  • Author

(Antonio Morales) The ‘curse’ of the College Football Playoff first-round bye: Are top seeds’ troubles a fluke?

When Ole Miss defenders slammed Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton to the Superdome turf on the chaotic final play of the Sugar Bowl Thursday night, they extinguished the SEC champion Bulldogs’ national title hopes with a 39-34 upset. They also extended a phenomenon few saw coming in the first two years of the 12-team College Football Playoff: Teams that receive a first-round bye are 1-7, with Indiana’s Rose Bowl win over Alabama this year the only victory by a top-four seed since the field was expanded beyond four teams.

The bye was supposed to reward the best teams, but each loss this week, on top of 2024-25’s winless showing, fueled debates on broadcasts and in living rooms about whether the extended time off might actually be a detriment. Is the bye week curse a real thing, a coincidence or something in between? Let’s examine the context of these losses and assess whether any declarations should be made.

2024

Let’s remember that the seeding format was different in the first year of the 12-team Playoff. The four highest-ranked conference champions were seeded 1 through 4 and received the first-round byes, not the top four teams. The Big Ten champion (Oregon), SEC champion (Georgia) earned first-round byes, but so did Mountain West champion Boise State (CFP ranking: No. 9) and Big 12 champion Arizona State (CFP ranking: No. 12) because they finished ranked ahead of ACC champion Clemson (No. 16). CFP leaders initially touted this structure as a way to limit the chances any team would need to play 17 games in a season — 12 in the regular season, a conference title game and four Playoff games — to win it all, and sure enough, this year’s final four teams will play no more than 16 games. But the results quickly sparked concern for other reasons.

No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champion)

Result: Lost 41-21 to No. 8 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl

The Ducks went 13-0 in the regular season, didn’t play for 24 days, then started disastrously slow in the Rose Bowl, falling behind 34-0 in the first half before losing by 20 to the eventual national champions in a game that wasn’t that close. Did the long layoff probably lead to some rust? Sure. But Ohio State had lost by just a point, 32-31, to the Ducks in Autzen Stadium in mid-October that season. The Buckeyes were the most talented team in the country last year and had a major chip on their shoulder after an embarrassing loss to rival Michigan.

Ohio State looked so impressive in its first-round win against Tennessee that it was actually favored against Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The lopsided nature of the Ducks’ loss was definitely a surprise, but they were probably hurt more by last year’s CFP seeding format than the first-round bye. Ohio State was the sixth-ranked team in the final CFP rankings but was seeded eighth, which set up a rematch with Oregon in the Rose Bowl because Boise State and Arizona State had to be ranked in the top four.

No. 2 Georgia (SEC champion)

Result: Lost 23-10 to No. 7 Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl

The Bulldogs’ season has come to an end in the Sugar Bowl in two consecutive seasons. Notre Dame outplayed Georgia, which looked sloppy after 25 days off, but that was also Stockton’s first career start after replacing an injured Carson Beck in the SEC Championship Game. Stockton demonstrated throughout the 2025 season and in the Sugar Bowl loss to Ole Miss that he elevates his game in big moments, but he was not that player yet when he faced the Fighting Irish.

He had a costly fumble that set up a short field and an eventual Notre Dame touchdown, and Georgia’s skill players, special teams and even walk-ons on the sidelines all made crucial mistakes that led to the loss. This felt like Georgia simply making too many mistakes and working with an inexperienced QB rather than seeing their chances derailed by the bye.

No. 3 Boise State (Mountain West champion)

Result: Lost 31-14 to No. 6 Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl

Penn State was simply the more talented team in this game and was favored by 11 points at kickoff despite the seeds, per BetMGM. The Big Ten runners-up demonstrated their quality across four quarters.

No. 4 Arizona State (Big 12 champion)

Result: Lost 39-31 to No. 5 Texas in double overtime in the Peach Bowl

Arizona State started slow, fell behind by two scores and didn’t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter, when its offense suddenly woke up and staged a dramatic rally thanks to some heroics from running back Cam Skattebo. But the Sun Devils blew multiple early scoring opportunities when they got deep into Texas territory that proved costly. The fifth-seeded Longhorns were nearly two-touchdown favorites and were widely viewed as the better team. They were the higher-ranked team in the final CFP rankings (No. 3). The fact that this game was as thrilling as it turned out to be was more of a surprise than Arizona State losing. So did the first-round bye really prove to be that detrimental?

2025

The CFP seeding format was changed for the 2025 season to give the top four teams first-round byes, regardless of whether they won their conference or not. For example, Ohio State was seeded second even though it didn’t win the Big Ten; the Buckeyes would have been bumped down to the No. 5 seed under the 2024 format.

No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champion)

Result: Beat No. 9 Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl

Indiana had no issues with the time off, leading Alabama by three scores at halftime and cruising to an easy victory. The Hoosiers are the only team in the 12-team Playoff era to win as a top-four seed, treating the Crimson Tide as roughly as they did most of their regular-season opponents.

No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten at-large)

Result: Lost 24-14 to No. 10 Miami in the Cotton Bowl

Miami pushed Ohio State around in the trenches for four quarters. Yes, the Buckeyes were national title favorites, but they would’ve had a horrible time blocking Hurricanes pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. if the two teams had met two weeks earlier, too.

And if anyone’s tempted to point to Ohio State’s offensive struggles after some time off, the Buckeyes scored 10 points in their previous game, the Big Ten championship against Indiana, and scored 14 points in their season opener against Texas. They didn’t score more than 14 points in any of their three toughest games this season — that seems like an Ohio State problem against high-level competition, not a time-off issue.

No. 3 Georgia (SEC champion)

Result: Lost 39-34 to No. 6 Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl

Georgia was favored coming into the game, but an Ole Miss triumph was never out of the realm of possibility. The Rebels led the Bulldogs by nine points in the fourth quarter of their regular-season matchup on Oct. 18, and that game was played in Athens. This one was at a neutral site in front of a majority Ole Miss crowd, which leveled the playing field a little more for the Rebels. Georgia’s defense struggled against Ole Miss on Thursday night just like it did in the middle of the season.

The difference was that the Rebels just made more plays this time around.

No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)

Result: Lost 23-0 to No. 5 Oregon in the Orange Bowl

Texas Tech’s defense came to play, but its offense struggled mightily. Many expected the Red Raiders offense would have a major uphill climb against Oregon, but few anticipated the extent of their struggles. Quarterback Behren Morton, playing through a hairline fracture in his right leg, has been a question all season long. The Red Raiders’ offense also had trouble finishing drives, ranking 97th nationally in touchdown percentage in the red zone (56.16 percent) coming into their bowl game.

That stuff didn’t matter much during the regular season because Texas Tech had much more talent than everyone on its schedule. The Red Raiders ran into an Oregon team that has been building its roster at an elite level for several years now. Against an equally decorated and more tested team, Texas Tech’s warts became more pronounced. The Playoff was always going to provide the Red Raiders with a stiffer challenge than they faced in the regular season, no matter when their first game was.

What’s the ruling?

Look, it’s only Year 2 of the 12-team Playoff. It’s only Year 1 of this seeding format, and who knows how long we’ll have that before something changes again. In several instances, the better teams won these quarterfinals despite having to win a first-round game to get there. Oregon got an unlucky draw. Georgia was playing with a first-time starter at QB. Boise State and Arizona State were considerable underdogs.

Ohio State was outmatched along the line of scrimmage. Georgia (again) lost a close game to a team it barely beat in October. Texas Tech finally ran into a more talented defense. So yes, the top seeds are 1-7 through two years, but it feels far too early to proclaim the first-round byes as the cause for all these losses. An Indiana national championship would give these seven teams even less of an excuse.

Just now, Pancho said:

I think this is a subjective statement based on your personal and selfish biases and that shouldn’t be a determining factor for the CFP and its much needed schedule changes.

Why am I required to watch college football for the same reason you are? And If I’m not, that doesn’t mean I don’t think the Army-Navy game is cool or unique.

To that note, wanting to move the game or Bigfooting it for CFP is also a subjective opinion based on personal biases. College football scheduling and playoff format is not a math problem, it’s all subjective.

1 hour ago, Thatguy said:

Bone to pick about this one. What DO you say when you have a coach who suffers from Dissociative Identity Disorder as a playcaller and is currently in Dr. Henry Jekyll mode? That's an awful lot to type. In his bag gets the point across nicely without the fancy medical terms.

how about "Sark's playcalls are excellent today"

Really insane numbers here from Indiana and hard not to think that this is a big reason why they play such controlled, mistake free ball. They are grownups.

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