Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

If they are indeed staffing and arming what is essentially internal security forces, that means less resources going to the Ukraine front.  And I’m fine with that.

And you can bet those forces are going to be much better equipped than the meat waves in Ukraine.

I'm also betting that if they go through with building up those groups/centers, after that he will do a massive mobilization of Moscow and St. Petersburg.  If he's not building those groups/centers up for that, then there's something else on the way economically.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

If they are indeed staffing and arming what is essentially internal security forces, that means less resources going to the Ukraine front.  And I’m fine with that.

Okay, interesting timing.  There is a group trying to build a united opposition to Putin from outside of Russia, trying to act as the alternative to Putin in terms of PACE (Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe) - basically putting themselves out there as representatives of Russia instead of Putin and his cronies.

G8DO1K-XMAMV-1F?format=jpg&name=large

G8DO1LcaoAAq_fJ?format=jpg&name=large

 

  • Hook 'Em 7
  • Like 1
Posted

From WarTranslated:

Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported fighting intensity reached 300 daily clashes, the highest since the war began. Russian forces remain at 710,000 troops, unable to grow despite recruitment as Ukraine inflicts 1,000 daily casualties. Ukrainian forces regained 16 square kilometers in northern Pokrovsk.

Yes comrade, normal routine production startup

 

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 2
Posted
This might end Orban.  People are flipping out over the last 24 hours.  The Hungarian government covered up crimes against children who were in the care of the state. People already had enough reasons to hate Orban and were getting pissed, but this could hopefully be the last straw, and Putin loses one more ally.
Bigger protests are planned Sunday, and it'll probably ramp up as more people hear about it.  It's absolutely horrible.
Hungary Protest Against Child Abuse Raises Pressure on Orban - Bloomberg
[/url] Long thread, and it's bad.
 

Remember, no matter the country or the actual party name, these extremists are Guardians Of Pedophiles.
Posted
Quote
Ukraine has relinquished its aim to join the NATO military alliance in exchange for Western security guarantees as a compromise to end the war with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday as peace talks got underway in Berlin.
Zelenskiy aired the concession as he flew to the German capital where he began meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner in efforts to end Europe's bloodiest conflict since World War Two.

From Reuters

 

Fuck

  • Rage+1 1
Posted
Ukraine has relinquished its aim to join the NATO military alliance in exchange for Western security guarantees as a compromise to end the war with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday as peace talks got underway in Berlin. Zelenskiy aired the concession as he flew to the German capital where he began meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner in efforts to end Europe's bloodiest conflict since World War Two.
From Reuters
 
Fuck

You don’t have to be in NATO to have security relationships and alliances with most of the NATO powers. It’s a concession mostly in name, and not unexpected (in my mind at least - it’s an easy thing to “give”).
  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 3
Posted
19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

From Reuters
 
Fuck

You don’t have to be in NATO to have security relationships and alliances with most of the NATO powers. It’s a concession mostly in name, and not unexpected (in my mind at least - it’s an easy thing to “give”).

Look, their word is their bond for all time…like how Russia promised Ukrainian independence when Ukraine removed all their nuclear arms.

Easy promise to make and if in the future they/NATO change their minds….NATO gets the welcome baskets from Sweden and Finland and repurposes them for Ukraine.

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 2
Posted
37 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

From Reuters
 
Fuck

You don’t have to be in NATO to have security relationships and alliances with most of the NATO powers. It’s a concession mostly in name, and not unexpected (in my mind at least - it’s an easy thing to “give”).

You want Ukraine to trust the West on security guarantees? How did the Budapest Memorandum and the Minsk agreement in 2015 work for them? For them to have real guarantee's they either need to be a member of NATO or have NATO basses near the Ukraine/Russian Border to deter future attacks.

Anything else is just paper that give times for Russia to rebuild.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Posted
24 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

You want Ukraine to trust the West on security guarantees? How did the Budapest Memorandum and the Minsk agreement in 2015 work for them? For them to have real guarantee's they either need to be a member of NATO or have NATO basses near the Ukraine/Russian Border to deter future attacks.

Anything else is just paper that give times for Russia to rebuild.

I believe that the new "Baltic-UK-France-Nordics Security Alliance" can and will put boots on the ground in Ukraine to provide a similar trip-wire/deterrent effect.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted

Sentiment turning in Russia?

Russia is not as resilient as it wants you to think

https://archive.is/VpLTk

Spoiler
Listen to Vladimir Putin, and one would think Russia is marching to victory in Ukraine and overcoming whatever minor economic challenges it faces, thanks to the support of its patriotic people. On November 30th state television showed Mr Putin visiting a command post wearing military fatigues, receiving reports on the latest offensive. “The Russian troops are advancing virtually everywhere,” Mr Putin told his generals. Two days later he told an investment conference that “our country and our economy are successfully tackling” any problems. Russia, he added, was ready for a war with Europe.
In reality, Russia’s situation is far less comfortable. Its army’s progress is bloody and slow. Its economic problems are mounting. The public mood on the war has soured, an oddly important factor in Mr Putin’s dictatorship, which relies on the perception of massive support to ensure obedience. Mr Putin’s propaganda and his relentless drone attacks are largely aimed at convincing Europe and America that supporting Ukraine is futile. Recent statements from Donald Trump suggest this is working. In fact he has failed even to conquer Donbas in four years of trying. And for Russians, the gap between image and reality is widening.
On the battlefield, Russia sends small groups to infiltrate Ukrainian positions and make videos before they are destroyed. The actual advances, judging by open-source intelligence and Russian military bloggers, are much less impressive. Ukrainian forces, bleeding and short of men, still hold positions in Pokrovsk, a front-line city that Russia claimed to have taken weeks ago.
Russia’s economy is not buckling, but it is starting to show strains. Next year will be the hardest since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Over the past year oil and gas revenues have fallen by 22%. The economic momentum from a vast increase in military spending has stalled. The budget deficit is nearing 3% of GDP. That is modest by European standards, but Russia receives little foreign investment and cannot borrow on international markets, says Alexandra Prokopenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, a Berlin-based think-tank. To finance Mr Putin’s war the government is forced to borrow at home, which can be inflationary, and to raise taxes.
The Kremlin spends half its budget on the armed forces, the military-industrial complex, domestic security and debt service. War makes the economy busier but poorer, Ms Prokopenko argues. It sustains jobs and industrial activity, but produces few lasting assets or productivity gains.
Higher taxes further burden the civilian economy, already suffering from double-digit interest rates and labour shortages. Tank factories are working overtime while car producers cut shifts. The industrial and military sectors have plateaued. The government has resorted to extracting money from its own population, which breaks the political deal that Mr Putin implicitly offered the Russian people.
eae9ca1135ae0a983885adb70189b9398f6b5962 Chart: The Economist
At a conference in October organised by Re:Russia, a think-tank in Vienna, experts within Russia and outside described changes in both the economy and public opinion over the past year. Oleg Vyugin, a former deputy head of Russia’s central bank, said the Kremlin was initially able to raise defence spending, maintain living standards and financially reward those engaged in the war. But it can no longer continue the war without inflicting pain.
Russians are starting to notice. In a recent survey, says Vladimir Zvonovsky, a sociologist in the Russian city of Samara, the number of those saying their well-being was deteriorating was triple those saying it was improving. It is now at the highest level since the start of the war.
This does not mean Mr Putin is looking for peace. But it shifts the terms on which he can continue the war. The share of war zealots never exceeded 25% of the Russian population, nor did that of active opponents, says Elena Koneva, a sociologist; the silent majority thinks about daily life, not ideology. Opinion polls may count them as supporters, but that support is superficial, says Sam Greene, a Russia expert at King’s College London: “Saying that you support the war is the best way of preventing the war impinging on your life.” They express not a personal opinion, but whatever they think is the dominant one in their circle.
256be8d3bdd4d6ae5e91f82bedab6be1dc626904 Chart: The Economist
Yet the perception of what is dominant has flipped. In May 2023 Russians thought by a margin of 57% to 39% that most people in their inner social circle supported the war. In October 2025, in contrast, they thought by a margin of 55% to 45% that those in their inner circle mostly opposed the war or were evenly divided. Unwillingness to take part in the war is now more socially acceptable than enthusiasm, says Kirill Rogov, the founder of Re:Russia.
The change is even more clear in attitudes towards veterans of the “special military operation”. Official propaganda portrays them as war heroes. But a recent survey by Levada, an independent pollster, found that only 40% of Russians see them that way; the majority see them as threatening, or as victims. The war, which by January will have lasted longer than Russia’s battle against the Nazis in 1941-45, inspires neither pride nor optimism.
Instead, frustration is growing. In a recent experiment pollsters divided respondents into two random groups, asking one what they would like and the other what they expect. Fully 88% of the first group said they wished for the war to end and for the focus to shift to social and economic issues. But only 47% expected Mr Putin to achieve that.
The Kremlin, which constantly conducts its own polls, is well aware of such sentiments. It is also aware that ending the war or reducing military spending will not solve Russia’s economic problems. Because the economy has become dependent on military production, peace is likely in the short term to bring new troubles, along with traumatised soldiers returning home. Rather than ending the war, Mr Putin is doubling down, which requires ever greater ideological control and repression. 

 

  • Like 1
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 4
Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

From Reuters
 
Fuck

You don’t have to be in NATO to have security relationships and alliances with most of the NATO powers. It’s a concession mostly in name, and not unexpected (in my mind at least - it’s an easy thing to “give”).

Not only is it an easy thing to give, preventing NATO on its borders was one of the main reasons for the special military operation. Putin invaded to prevent NATO gains on his border - and to de-Natzify the <checks notes> government led by the Jewish guy.

I see this more as an opportunity to refute Putin‘s lies about the justification for the war - not directed at the non-gullible who know his reasons are bullshit - but directed at the Russian sympathizer in the White House who adopt Kremlin talking points.    With one of the main goals achieved, Russia has less grounds  for continuing the war….at least per their bullshit justification.   

I assume that the reason Trump supports Russia is purely personal and transactional - whether it’s future financial or current kompromat prevention.  So I have my doubts that this will change any minds in the White House.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

It is also aware that ending the war or reducing military spending will not solve Russia’s economic problems. Because the economy has become dependent on military production, peace is likely in the short term to bring new troubles, along with traumatised soldiers returning home. Rather than ending the war, Mr Putin is doubling down, which requires ever greater ideological control and repression. 

That’s going to fuck up Russian society big time.  A whole lot of those soldiers are going to be angry t the men who didn’t serve/get pulled into it.  It happened after Afghanistan.

Edited by atomheartbevo
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Lets Go Reaction GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
 

Chancellor Merz: Dear friends, the decades of Pax Americana are largely over for us in Europe, and for us in Germany as well. It no longer exists as we knew it. 

That's the way it is. The Americans are now very, very aggressively pursuing their own interests. And that can only mean one thing: that we, too, must now pursue our own interests. 

And, dear friends, we're not so weak after all. We're not so small after all.

 

  • Hook 'Em 6
  • Like 2
Posted
6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Lets Go Reaction GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
 

Chancellor Merz: Dear friends, the decades of Pax Americana are largely over for us in Europe, and for us in Germany as well. It no longer exists as we knew it. 

That's the way it is. The Americans are now very, very aggressively pursuing their own interests. And that can only mean one thing: that we, too, must now pursue our own interests. 

And, dear friends, we're not so weak after all. We're not so small after all.

 

Convincing Germany and Poland they oughta start thinking about engaging in large-scale, continental warfare.

What could go wrong?

Posted

IMG_5621.thumb.jpeg.dc08fe76b701ded267c954e577080194.jpeg

Konstantin had a recent podcast where he talked about this hacking, adding that the hackers claim to have sent all of the young computer software engineers (working on the country’s conscription system) - conscription notices to join the war.  

  • Drool 1
Posted
13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Convincing Germany and Poland they oughta start thinking about engaging in large-scale, continental warfare.

What could go wrong?

scary-movie-shawn-wayans.gif

The German Chancellor sat in the middle of the Ukrainian delegation during negotiations and Poland is trashing Orban.

 

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 2
Posted

@PTINS - i’d love to hear your thoughts on a subject I know nothing about.   I find it interesting that the city of Angarsk in Siberia - a larger city of 200,000 residents - has been largely without any building heating since December 7.  This includes homes, apartments, hospitals, schools, etc.  When the heat went out, the temperature was -20.     Today on December 14th the heat is still out,

Angarsk had a recent heat wave, so the highs are in the teens and low 20s, while trending colder at the end of the week.  That said, if the temperature remains below zero for a week straight, that city’s residents are living in an icebox.

This news jogged my memory about another fact I read recently, that all of the Ukrainian attacks on the refineries have prevented the refineries from planned outages to transition to winter fuel, fuel that contains the necessary ingredient to prevent fuel freezing and gelling or doing whatever it is fuel does without those ingredients. 

If that inability to refine winterized gas is true and continues into the December and January winter months, what effect will that have on transportation in the country?  IOW, what can you tell my ignorant self about the absence of winterized refined fuel in a country so cold - and the consequences to the countries’s economy and the military operation in Ukraine?

 

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 3
Posted
3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Not only is it an easy thing to give, preventing NATO on its borders was one of the main reasons for the special military operation. Putin invaded to prevent NATO gains on his border - and to de-Natzify the <checks notes> government led by the Jewish guy.

I see this more as an opportunity to refute Putin‘s lies about the justification for the war - not directed at the non-gullible who know his reasons are bullshit - but directed at the Russian sympathizer in the White House who adopt Kremlin talking points.    With one of the main goals achieved, Russia has less grounds  for continuing the war….at least per their bullshit justification.   

I assume that the reason Trump supports Russia is purely personal and transactional - whether it’s future financial or current kompromat prevention.  So I have my doubts that this will change any minds in the White House.

All that means is Zelensky will be forced to keep his promise to not join NATO, while Putin and Trump keep getting to lie over and over and over. 

cue the moment when Trump says something along the lines of "See, even Zelensky thinks NATO is a bad idea."

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Jameslaw121 said:

All that means is Zelensky will be forced to keep his promise to not join NATO, while Putin and Trump keep getting to lie over and over and over. 

cue the moment when Trump says something along the lines of "See, even Zelensky thinks NATO is a bad idea."

At least going forward, Russia has lost the ability to mass troops and vehicles just across the border.  Imagine if Ukraine had the drones and missiles they have now, back in February of 2022.  Those convoys would be boxed in - drones would hit the first and last vehicles, trapping everything in between and then just start picking them off at their leisure.  When that big-ass convoy ran out of gas, it would have been a turkey shoot for the Ukrainians.  And Ukraine woild have had a field day with those large helicopter formations.

Ukraine has changed large-scale warfare forever.  This is probably Russia's last major chance at keeping anything because they are entrenched already from the February 2022 invasion.

  • Like 2
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted
4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Convincing Germany and Poland they oughta start thinking about engaging in large-scale, continental warfare.

What could go wrong?

And there's even more. Germany deploying engineering troops to build fortifications/defensive positions in Poland next year, on the border with Kaliningrad and Belarus. 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 2
Posted
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

And there's even more. Germany deploying engineering troops to build fortifications/defensive positions in Poland next year, on the border with Kaliningrad and Belarus. 

 


long-term it may not be a good thing, but short-term it is absolutely good that central and Eastern Europe are preparing for a Russian invasion and not relying on the US. 
 

if Russia does decide to attack, Germany and Poland will not be caught off guard. And more likely, Russia will not attack because with a fortified central and Eastern Europe, Putin knows he would lose.

Posted
50 minutes ago, Bevo said:

if Russia does decide to attack, Germany and Poland will not be caught off guard. And more likely, Russia will not attack because with a fortified central and Eastern Europe, Putin knows he would lose.

The EU as a whole has over 1.5 million active-duty military personnel, and much more modern and effective air forces.  Not to summon Peter Zeihan's spirit, but Russia is on a downward slope in terms of eligible men.  And that's ignoring that they can't even defeat Ukraine.

And more importantly, Putin doesn't have the balls to truly go after NATO, even with American sitting on the sideline, since England and France have serious nuclear capabilities that he would not risk.

But here's my thing, putting aside the nuclear issue - if Putin had manpower to spare, we would see it. He literally emptied the prisons, brought in Russian PMCs, brought in a shitload of North Koreans, brought in Africans and Indians that were tricked, and here we are in 2025, the Ukrainians are hitting factories and refineries a thousand kilometers deep into Russia, Muscovites have heard air raid sirens and seen explosions in the distance, the Russians are moving at a snail's pace in Ukraine and taking losses over small amounts of land that they can't afford in the long run, and some of those "gains" they claim, are then reversed by the Ukrainians, and/or are faked.

He's got 700,000 men committed to Ukraine. He would need several times that to try and invade NATO proper when you take into account that his logistics chain would stretch out very rapidly through enemy territory.  Right now, his local logistics chain is only under serious threat for the last few dozen miles (from the Russian border to wherever in Ukraine). Stretch that out from the Russian border through Ukraine or Belarus (forces in Belarus would quickly find themselves under NATO attack) and it gets into hundreds of miles, and with rails being hit almost immediately by NATO air/missiles, he'd have to try it by trucks, which he doesn't have a lot of these days.

I firmly believe that if he had even 100,000 or even just 50,000 troops to spare, we would see them being thrown into Donbas or another area to gain control and make his case for claiming that area through "negotiations". I think that's why we are seeing those mobilization orders and building of internal security facilities/groups - he's gotta tap into Moscow and St. Petersburg, and that's going to tie up troops within Russia keeping those cities under control.

  • Like 1
Posted

Michael Koffman said 403k was their quota, and the growing pool of reservists include service members who probably thought they had served their time and were done. These maybe the guys who get tapped for those internal forces/national guard to keep the peace in Russia, and you can bet they would be bitter at any men protesting/trying to dodge any drafts.

“Russia signed up 403,000 recruits this year, surpassing its initial plan for 2025, Budanov said. It is also tapping a growing pool of reservists to replenish its ranks and doling out financial incentives that lure men from its hardscrabble provinces.”

Zelensky’s Front-Line Visit Highlights Ukrainian Resilience - WSJ

 

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...