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Everything posted by JimmyTwoTimes

  1. 3 to 5 most likely in May in my opinion. But who knows. These declines will be offset by demand destruction and LNG cancellations throughout q2 and potentially q3. Really messy in the front of the curve but unquestionably supportive winter/2021. Problem is that it’s become a really crowded trade at this point. Lots of Doctor/dentist money in the natty now as well.
  2. I guess we are just arguing semantics of a “global commodity”. My view is that it is, now. PSA... running into producer hedging in 2021 at 2.50+... those lots will find their way to the front of the market at some point soon. Happy Gas Trading and good evening.
  3. Lol really? Look on your Bloomberg terminal at a prompt Ng1/ttf1 spread. They have followed each other like puppy dogs for months. That has corresponded with a steady increase in LNG exports as trains have come online. Is that some random walk? As for the associated gas drop. I have lurked on here a long time and very much appreciate your opinions Trey, but no way is production dropping to 80 any time soon. And the first tranche that drops will be the volumes being flared currently in the Bakken and Permian, over 1 bcfd.
  4. To classify NG as a regional or domestic commodity in 2020 is inaccurate. We require exports to balance supply/demand given current close to record high levels of production. That makes it global. Look at ng versus nbp/ttf/jkm on a chart. I don’t think we are disagreeing with each other except for that point. As for price...we’ve held multi year lows, which I guess is supportive. Balances in the near term, however, are a train wreck. Burns from power generation will have to remain at all time highs to keep the bottom in. Tough ask in the current state of affairs.
  5. NG is very much a global commodity, we export 8+ bcf/d at this point. And to discount the amount of LNG turnback due to global demand destruction, which is very real and was an issue even before the virus, could be very painful if you want to own the front end of the gas curve via some simple jack etf like UNG. Even the deferred contracts are becoming crowded, thanks to research being put out by the likes of Gold Man Sacks. I’m all for the bull story but it isn’t time to jump in now imo.
  6. Agreed. Really tough to see the southbound traffic on Durham.
  7. Arky RB Rakeem Boyd is a legit talent and a good kid. You might remember him from Last Chance U a few years back. Really hoping he has major success against his former team tomorrow.
  8. It’s so obvious MSU doesn’t want to be there, if this was a meaningful SEC game their level of play is upped 10x.
  9. How about a 4p sub-varsity game in Brenham on a Thursday ... Between junior and senior years, trips to Brenham, Waller, Tomball, and Magnolia in Houston rush hour traffic. A beating.
  10. Garbage Gate was just west of Abel’s, hell maybe it was a few blocks away, been a long time, not shining shoes anymore.
  11. Garden (Garbage} Gate anyone? Across the street from Abel’s late 80’s. Also SRD waiter, great great gig.
  12. The most bullish thing about NG at this point is positioning, CTAs are almost max short at this point. 3 out of 4 really loose misses on storage in the last month. It’s a pig. We’ll bounce, sure, but it will be of the dead cat variety.
  13. Have gone to Bonnaroo the past 2 years with my daughter, heading back this year. They handle the logistics pretty well and have great food options and real restroom facilities on site. Not interested in camping there, they provide hourly shuttle service to Murfreesboro or Nashville. Music has run the entire spectrum, there is something for everyone. U2 did their first US festival there 2 years ago. Phish headlines this year. Tons of unknown and up and coming talent. Great bonding for an old and his 17 yr old daughter.
  14. My son goes there, so I've watched most of their games and will weigh in...ND is solid across the board and has no glaring weaknesses. I was sold after they went to NYC after a tough travel schedule and dismantled a good Syracuse team. They will give Clemson a great game, I won't be surprised if they win.
  15. 3 starters on NW defense from Houston area, D linemen Sam and Alex Miller from Stratford and Paddy Fisher from Katy
  16. Carnitas: get the meat from HEB, if they are open. 4 ish pounds oregano, chili powder, cumin, salt, pepper. More is better. quarter an onion. Put half on the bottom of the crockpot. throw garlic cloves in. 5-37, no more. juice of 2 navel oranges, 7 small limes. place meat in, cover with rest of onion and another 5-37 garlic cloves. 8 hours on low. after 8 hours, shred meat with 2 or more forks, leave in juice for another 30 minutes, have 1-3 drinks. Set oven to broil. after 30 minutes, put meat on a pan and broil for 3-5 minutes to finish. Pour drink. serve with tortillas, rice, beans, etc... These are delicious.
  17. Ha! I mostly lurk, but was on the verge of having to post Bob Popular, right in the wheelhouse. JD was a good dude.
  18. Satellite Lounge on Washington was great back in the day.
  19. My son played for Coach Allen at Stratford. Good guy, solid football coach. He had Stratford playing competitive football for the last few years even though the talent level dropped off and they were barely above the 6a cut line. I think he'll do well at Brenham.
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