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Hefeweizen

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Hefeweizen

  1. Homebuilders don’t seem to share the sunny disposition in here that everything is awesome and if we could just get some rate cuts everything would fly to the moon. They are going to everyone asking for price reductions right now. I guess that’s super bullish.
  2. lol if you think we’re getting rate cuts. Not happening this year as inflation ticks up. I’m resigned to 6.5 to 7 percent rates for mortgage for the next twelve months and it’s going to really drag on home buying. Personally I’m at five percent so I don’t think I’m ever refinancing, just paying it off.
  3. How sad of a person do you have to be to keep coming back to a site after being repeatedly banned? Asking for a troll.
  4. Aged like milk. Droughts interrupted by floods, same as it ever was. Not picking on you but this is central Texas, as it has always been.
  5. It’s my last stonk. Lets fucking go.
  6. He's not winning another major. He can't hold up over 5 sets for two weeks. Honestly, I have very mixed feelings about him. He's been a tremendous individual competitor but his vaccines shit really made me question his mentality. Regardless he's in the top 2 or 3 of all time; even if Roger or Rafa is more beloved, his results are hard to argue with. Just a really gifted tennis player and all around athlete.
  7. Great match. Sabalenkas kryptonite is American women in a GS final. Maybe Pegula can beat her at the open.
  8. Hefeweizen

    Getting old sucks

    I’ll admit that I got back from the doc and looked for meniscus. I’m all ears because all of a sudden I’m fucking old and falling apart and it sucks. Hopefully the orthopedic specialist has some insight because my doc was like ice it and take some Advil. Motherfucker if that worked I wouldn’t be here.
  9. I would love to see Amanda get to the final but that’s heart over brain.
  10. Hefeweizen

    Getting old sucks

    Furk. Looks like I have a torn meniscus in my knee. Getting an MRI soon. Yes getting old sucks.
  11. I was going to say that unfortunately this spiral sure looks emblematic of the US as a whole right now. Grok is just an uncomfortable black mirror.
  12. Out of the top I think Cobolli is the one to sneak out and lose to Alcaraz. He was so good today. I can’t believe I am going to say this but Iga has a shot if she plays like this. Tauson caused her no problems with her heavy shots. Saba vs Andreeva is my guess though.
  13. Yes she is really good. Never let Navarro into that match. I think Tigress is the odds on favorite though.
  14. Norrie has a weird tic with his ball bounce at serve. Both guys do but Cilic is way worse. Jarry is just kind of a bitch and I’m glad he lost.
  15. Fuck. The death penalty isn't enough for some of these ghouls.
  16. Wrong. He doesn't care about him. Bonus, he's handicapped, so he cares even less than nothing.
  17. Short answer, yes. Given the increase in extreme precipitation I am actually concerned that our PMP (probable maximum precipitation) models are likely to be undersized. Not to be flippant but those could affect hundreds of thousands instead of hundreds of people. A PMF (probable maximum flood) is used to evaluate dam safety. If the PMF is not sufficiently conservative, the spillway will be undersized. Then a lot of people would be at risk. Lake Travis, thank goodness, is protected by a dam that is so over designed I don't think there is much risk (and if it ever reaches flood stage it's game over anyway).
  18. I'm sorry I don't have anything to add except how awful I feel about all of this. One thing that is clear, though - our statistical models are chasing climate change and unfortunately appear to not be equipped to catch up. We're using what is called Atlas 14 (NOAA's newest prediction model for precipitation) and it falls way short of the rainfall totals we're seeing in localized areas. Is it possible that these events are way outside the normal probabilities of exceedance? Yes, it's possible. It's not statistically likely given the frequency of exceedance, though. As I was telling a licensed engineer who was revising a (500 year!) floodplain the other day, you're just weighing the odds of a larger event against the cost of increasing fill/conveyance. It's ultimately not going to matter if the design storm is inadequate; the fault will lie entirely on whoever is promulgating a maximum exceedance event as less than its actual volume. Engineers can only do so much with the data provided, and climate change is making it so the backwards looking statistical models are just not adequate in a lot of cases.
  19. Oh no, anyways.
  20. The amount of seeds eliminated is shocking. This just goes to show no one knows how to play on grass. Serve is king and Gauff hits like half her first serves.
  21. There is one valuable utility to these coins and it is bypassing currency exchanges which are useless. My brother gets paid in USD and converts to real using BTC and pays next to nothing for it. I totally see the utility there. As a store of value, fuck off. But to move quickly from different currencies, hell yes.
  22. Fuck I’m going to root for Elmo now? What the ever loving fuck is going here?
  23. Realize that most of these guys have just now understood the US is like an elephant that just snorted coke. You probably just want to get out of the way for a while until the elephant crashes or finds something else to fuck up. You aren’t winning a head to head battle. So worst case, you fold, take a loss, and bide your time. They don’t have have much of a choice.
  24. Rick Perry was just a typical grifter politician. I remember 30 years ago him coming into my old bosses office to talk about the manor airport site. He was just a dumb guy who was pretty likable and political. Nothing like the evil criminals we like to put in office these days.
  25. Pretty much a bunch of pussies whining about the level of discourse while Rome is fucking burning. Get your miniature violins out.
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