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CFP '19-- Auburn the nexus?

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14 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Lulz how has Clemson been underwhelming outside of one game?

So I'm defending Clemson in this thread but doing so vehemently enough for you

you really ought to be an SEC fan

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1 hour ago, JBJ said:

If you've watched both teams play, Penn State is the better resume AND is the better team.

What Penn State game did you watch and think "oh they're better than Clemson"....? Fucking Idaho?

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14 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Sure but Texas seems to never get any favoritism of any kind from anyone, its unfucking real. OU has a media circus sticking up for them every chance they get. Shoe on the other foot, OU would be ranked. It isnt that it matters that we arent ranked, it is the precedent that is being set that we are being disrespected again and again by this dumbass committee. 

What the fuck?  

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Pick any game Clemson has and Penn State has has a carbon copy or better.

Boston College (59-7) - Maryland (59-0)

FSU (45-14) - Buffalo (45-13)

Louisville (45-10) - Purdue (35-7)

A&M (24-10) - Michigan State (28-7)

Even the letdown game: UNC (21-20) - Pitt (17-10)

Where it ends is Clemson has no comparisons for the wins over Michgian and Iowa.

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Beating 6-3 Pitt by a TD isn’t the same as fading a 2 point conversion that beats you against a sub 500 UNC.

Penn State’s resume is better. Clemson is a better team. I think the delta between resumes is bigger than that between team strength.

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1 hour ago, SwanderedTalent said:

So I'm defending Clemson in this thread but doing so vehemently enough for you

you really ought to be an SEC fan

 

Fuck that secsecsec noise. I'm genuinely curious, as I've seen it posted multiple times that Clemson has been underwhelming this year, and outside of North Carolina, they have been blowing the doors off of everyone. 

 

55 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Pick any game Clemson has and Penn State has has a carbon copy or better.

Boston College (59-7) - Maryland (59-0)

FSU (45-14) - Buffalo (45-13)

Louisville (45-10) - Purdue (35-7)

A&M (24-10) - Michigan State (28-7)

Even the letdown game: UNC (21-20) - Pitt (17-10)

Where it ends is Clemson has no comparisons for the wins over Michgian and Iowa.

 

27 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Beating 6-3 Pitt by a TD isn’t the same as fading a 2 point conversion that beats you against a sub 500 UNC.

Penn State’s resume is better. Clemson is a better team. I think the delta between resumes is bigger than that between team strength.

 

The issue isn't necessarily PedoState vs Clemson. The issue is the committee used the eye test for Bama and the resume test for Clemson, which is bullshit. You wanna put PedoState ahead of Clemson to generate some buzz about the rankings? Fine, we all know PedoState isn't as good as Clemson, but if you want to use the resume argument then PedoState state should be 3rd, Bama 4th, and Clemson 5th. That would be in line with what they are saying. 

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17 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

The issue isn't necessarily PedoState vs Clemson. The issue is the committee used the eye test for Bama and the resume test for Clemson, which is bullshit. You wanna put PedoState ahead of Clemson to generate some buzz about the rankings? Fine, we all know PedoState isn't as good as Clemson, but if you want to use the resume argument then PedoState state should be 3rd, Bama 4th, and Clemson 5th. That would be in line with what they are saying. 

I hear this.  But I think I'd still have put 1-5 the same. 

I just don't think Clemson has it this year, which seems to be the point of disagreement.

Edited by JBJ

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Clemson should not be over Pedo at this point. If you've watched both teams play, Penn State is the better resume AND is the better team.  The committee got this right.
It changes Saturday night anyway.  I don't think anyone this year can hang with OSU, and even a close loss warrants a drop.


Since the 21-20 close call, Clemson has beaten FSU, Louisville and Boston College by a combined 118 points.

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27 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Fuck that secsecsec noise.

My point was, in this thread, I'm defending Clemson as clearly one of the top four teams, and you're bitching at me for saying you guys have looked "underwhelming" this season.

Newsflash: there is a reason why you're fifth in the first playoff poll, why you've dropped from preseason #1 to fourth in the AP. Because you've been underwhelming compared to expectations. Now, I happen to think people are being too hard on Clemson for the reasons C-Man alludes to above. That's why I'm arguing they should be the fourth seed right now. But when I make that case in this thread and a Clemson fan's response is "HOW WE BIN UNDERWHELMING THIS YEAHUH???", that Holy Jihad attitude is why I say you should be an SEC fan. It's not enough to take Clemson's side, I have to agree to wear a burka. 

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12 minutes ago, JBJ said:

I hear this.  But I think I'd still have put 1-5 the same. 

I just don't think Clemson has it this year, which seems to be the point of disagreement.

Haha yeah, but "I just don't think Clemson has it this year" is exactly what we are trying to avoid with this playoff committee and their guidelines. 

And it's funny that you say that, because you hear that every year. Bama was supposed to win all four times they've played Clemson. Ohio State was supposed to win both times, as was Oklahoma both times they played Clemson. 

Tell me according to resume why Bama is ahead of PedoState? 

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2 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

My point was, in this thread, I'm defending Clemson as clearly one of the top four teams, and you're bitching at me for saying you guys have looked "underwhelming" this season.

Newsflash: there is a reason why you're fifth in the first playoff poll, why you've dropped from preseason #1 to fourth in the AP. Because you've been underwhelming compared to expectations. Now, I happen to think people are being too hard on Clemson for the reasons C-Man alludes to above. That's why I'm arguing they should be the fourth seed right now. But when I make that case in this thread and a Clemson fan's response is "HOW WE BIN UNDERWHELMING THIS YEAHUH???", that Holy Jihad attitude is why I say you should be an SEC fan. It's not enough to take Clemson's side, I have to agree to wear a burka. 

Thank you for your support, a Clemson koozie is on its way to you. I chose your post curious as to how Clemson has looked underwhelming this year outside of the Carolina game, but I could have picked many others. 

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clemson is on autopilot this season, sometimes asleep at the wheel. When they wake up and put the pedal down they are a playoff team. They almost wrecked the car in North Carolina. 
 

penn state is breaking in a first year starting quarterback while trying to figure out who their running back is by constantly rotating 4 guys through the backfield. Right now the offense is a one man show with Hamler. The TE Friermuth is legit. They really need someone (or 2) to emerge as a big body on the outside to really open up the offense. If Justin Shorter can live up to his 5* billing he could fill that role. They need to figure out what they are doing with the run game. No one knows if Clifford can be an elite QB yet. 
 

the potential is there for all of those things to fall into place. The elite defense has been good enough to allow them to keep winning while they figure the rest out. It won’t be enough to get them past OSU unless the offense rounds into form. 

I think they are probably good enough to play with anyone in the country outside of osu. That feels like a game that osu runs away with in the second half. I think osu has plenty of answers for penn states defense. I don’t think psu’s offense is up to the task of keeping that game close. 

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4 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Thank you for your support, a Clemson koozie is on its way to you. I chose your post curious as to how Clemson has looked underwhelming this year outside of the Carolina game, but I could have picked many others. 

it just shows you how much people expect out of Clemson after the championship game last year-- fair or not, beating Alabama by 28 is I guess expected to translate into beating Boston College by 140

I can't take the playoff rankings seriously when they do shit like this. 

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1 minute ago, heso said:

the potential is there for all of those things to fall into place. The elite defense has been good enough to allow them to keep winning while they figure the rest out. It won’t be enough to get them past OSU unless the offense rounds into form. 

I think they are probably good enough to play with anyone in the country outside of osu. That feels like a game that osu runs away with in the second half. I think osu has plenty of answers for penn states defense. I don’t think psu’s offense is up to the task of keeping that game close. 

you guys need to block a kick, maybe run it back for a TD

that's all I got for you

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2 hours ago, alincoln said:

That Penn State offense better wake up for the stretch run.  300 ypg isn't going to get it done.

 

 

To hang with osu, absolutely, but in general maybe not so much. 
 

since we’re comparing psu to Clemson, Clemson is 6th in scoring offense at 44.2 ppg. Penn state is 12th at 38.5 ppg. 
 

Scoring defense of clemsons schedule:

34, 63, 78, 80, 91, 96, 96, 125, fcs (avg 83)

Psu:

3, 12, 25, 33, 36, 73, 86, fcs (avg 38)

Edited by heso

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2 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Tell me according to resume why Bama is ahead of PedoState? 

Just looking at wins and losses, they aren't.  PSU clearly has the schedule advantage in this discussion.

But Bama has been dominant in every game across their stretch.  PSU and Clemson haven't.

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I'm genuinely curious why people pay attention to this before the actual playoff selection.  To me this is just a way for espn to fill air time.  The committee has shown that they can change their ratings and reverse their justifications at the very end.

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1 hour ago, alincoln said:

Alabama has no business in the playoff if they lose to LSU.  

It's the Alabama invitational, they are in unless they get two losses. 

How hard is that to understand? 

Did you not pay attention in 17/18 when Auburn beat Alabama and they didn't even play in the SEC title game and still got into the playoffs?

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It's the Alabama invitational, they are in unless they get two losses. 
How hard is that to understand? 
Did you not pay attention in 17/18 when Auburn beat Alabama and they didn't even play in the SEC title game and still got into the playoffs?


Which 0 or 1-loss P5 conference champ was left out for Bama? Oh, that’s right, none.

Also that Bama team lost on the road, not at home, and had two wins over top 20 teams plus annihilated a preseason top 5 FSU, breaking their QB in the process so they spiraled to 6-6.

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6 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Which 0 or 1-loss P5 conference champ was left out for Bama? Oh, that’s right, none.

Also that Bama team lost on the road, not at home, and had two wins over top 20 teams plus annihilated a preseason top 5 FSU, breaking their QB in the process so they spiraled to 6-6.

 

You should go back to Oklahoma. Preseason rankings determine your win quality? lulz

Anyway they went on to win it all so they really did deserve to be there, but not winning your conference (or even playing the extra championship game) then going to the CFB Playoffs is pretty shitty.

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12 minutes ago, Zavala said:

You should go back to Oklahoma. Preseason rankings determine your win quality? lulz

 

Uh, tell me again why Florida is ranked where they are, please.

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You should go back to Oklahoma. Preseason rankings determine your win quality? lulz
Anyway they went on to win it all so they really did deserve to be there, but not winning your conference (or even playing the extra championship game) then going to the CFB Playoffs is pretty shitty.


When you play a team that is largely considered a top 5 team and you break their star player and put him out for the season, it should at least be considered yes. It isn’t like he blew his knee at practice after. I also don’t think it’s worth the same as beating an end-of-season top 5 team but is better than a random 6-6 win.

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If Bama loses to LSU, their best win will come against a potentially 4-loss Auburn (if Auburn loses to Georgia).

College football will implode if that team makes it over a 1-loss conference champ from the B1G, PAC of Big-12.  

 

 

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4 hours ago, El Diablo said:

Uh, tell me again why Florida is ranked where they are, please.

They've lost twice, one was a really good LSU team. Id have em anywhere from 10 to 15 probably with the other two loss teams?

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I predict hysteria Tuesday because Bama will be like 5 or 6 but the committee doesn’t “look forward” to anticipate no conference title for them. Teams will pass them when they win conference championships. I think they are done barring an extremely unlikely collapse by LSU which gets Bama the division or there aren’t four one-loss or unbeaten conference champs.

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2 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

I predict hysteria Tuesday because Bama will be like 5 or 6 but the committee doesn’t “look forward” to anticipate no conference title for them. Teams will pass them when they win conference championships. I think they are done barring an extremely unlikely collapse by LSU which gets Bama the division or there aren’t four one-loss or unbeaten conference champs.

You are correct but oh so mistaken, you silly fool

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I think they are done barring an extremely unlikely collapse by LSU which gets Bama the division or there aren’t four one-loss or unbeaten conference champs.


Burrow gets hurt, causing them to lose to ole miss and aggy (they're not losing to Arkansas) and miss the ccg.

However, he'll be healthy by bowl time, so the committee is forced to evaluate lsu record with Burrow vs without in the rankings.

Bama beats uga for the ccg in a last minute, tight game. Chaos ensues across all of the other conference championship games, with underdogs winning all of them, and knocking out potential playoff contenders.

We're left with a playoff selection of lsu, bama, Georgia, and Notre Dame (committee chooses them because "they didn't have a ccg loss like the other candidates").

This is my hell.



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23 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

You are correct but oh so mistaken, you silly fool

I would bet money that Bama isn't selected over an unbeaten or 1-loss P5 champion. I think it's a lock they aren't, if UGA beats Auburn.

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I guess we find out if the committee watches games or looks at scores.  I think Minnesota should jump ahead of all the one and 2 loss teams.  Is the committee aware of the fact that bama was never in the lead at home, and scored a meaningless td to make the score close?  If you look at resume, bama is not in top 5.  

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Moving this over to the CFP thread...

CFP odds:

1: Clemson - 83% (<1% at large)

2: Ohio State - 79% (4%)

3: LSU - 79% (16%)

4: Utah - 37%

5: Oregon - 34%

6: Oklahoma - 28%

7: Baylor - 28% (13%)

8: Georgia - 14%

9: Minnesota - 7% (6%)

10: Alabama - 4% (3%)

11: Penn State - 4% (1%)

Doomsday scenario (the field) 3%

Eliminated: Wake Forest

 

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538 has the following:

Clemson 88%

Ohio State 69%

LSU 68%

Georgia 34%

Oklahoma 33%

Oregon 32%

Utah 20%

Baylor 18%

Penn State 12%

Alabama 11%

Minnesota 9%

 

Looked at another way:

SEC champ: IN

Big 10 champ: 93% (Wisconsin also has a 3% chance)

ACC Champ (Clemson): 88%

Pac 10 champ: 52%

Big 12 champ: 51%

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The 538 numbers seem about right IMO. The 3% for Wisky would be when they are B1G champs which they can still do.

Zero or 1 loss SEC champ is a lock
Zero or 1 loss B1G champ is a lock
Unbeaten Clemson is a lock
Unbeaten Baylor is a lock

After that the stew gets murky. I think a 2 loss SEC champ is still a lock bc it will be coming off a win over 12-0 LSU. But how would a 11-2 SEC champ Florida compared with 12-1 SEC runner up LSU when they split the series and LSU win at Texas while Florida played two FCS games? 11-2 SEC champ UGA prob compares a bit better and is almost surely in.

I think 12-1 OU and 12-1 Oregon are extremely close. I think 12-1 OU goes over 12-1 Utah. I think all these teams are probably behind a 12–1 tOSU or 12-1 LSU that lost its conf title game.

12-1 Baylor is behind all of the above and also prob behind 12-1 ACC champ Clemson but ahead of 12-1 non champ Clemson. I think 11-1 Bama is right at the same line as 12-1 Baylor or Clemson. Same for an 11-2 B1G champ Wisky.

Should be a fun month!

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43 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

But how would a 11-2 SEC champ Florida compared with 12-1 SEC runner up LSU when they split the series and LSU win at Texas while Florida played two FCS games?

Porque no los dos, as they say. Would obviously depend on who else is available, but if (when) LSU gets to 12-0, they're almost guaranteed to get in.

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13 hours ago, satyanash said:

 

 

I'd say there's a better than decent chance of Georgia knocking off LSU in the SECCG. There will be some chaos if that happens. I'm not sold on the secsecsec this year. LSU is putting up points in bunches, but giving up points almost as fast. OSU and Clemson are the most balanced teams this year. 

Because of the terrible schedule, Clemson is most likely stuck with the 2/3 game. If chalk wins out, they're going to have to play OSU and LSU in order to repeat. I would rather play OSU first with a month to prepare, but I think they deserve the #1 spot. Gonna be an interesting next few weeks. 

 

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I notice none of the SEC screamers have taken me up on my offer to wager regarding Bama not getting in over a 0 or 1 loss champion, which I've posted in multiple threads. 

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