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Huckleberry

Texas Tech Futures Bet

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Posted (edited)

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/26429940/1500-texas-tech-title-bet-net-300k

So this PropSwap thing seems interesting. Tech is about 4-to-1 to win right now so if those odds were actually accurate then buying his ticket for $65,000 is an EV of $8,300 a negative EV right at -$4,700. (edited here because I screwed up my internal math)

Meanwhile, if tourney odds are this right now:

Virginia 8-5

Michigan State 7-4

Texas Tech 4-1

Auburn 7-1

An accurate hedge on his part could only guarantee that he gets paid out $38,214.60 or so for a profit of $36,714.60 on his initial bet. And that's only if he can find someone to bankroll it (the hedge would require $263,285.41 in total new bets and the guy who bankrolls that will obviously take a cut).

So with all that said, what would you have listed that ticket for on PropSwap? Just a thought exercise, really.

 

 

Edited by Huckleberry
Oops

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Posted (edited)

AU at +700 is pretty juicy ngl...

Wish I didn't zero out my Bovada balance making drunk college football bets last season. 

Per your thought exercise, I think you are probably on the money with $65k. Maybe try and list just under $300k/4 - since obviously someone could just go put that amount on them today with the same future result. 

Also you'd factor in the $1,500 that he initially paid. 

Edited by ztejas

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No, $65K is what he listed it at. I've never been on that site so have no feeling for that market but my first instinct is I'd probably list it at what if games to give me a $50K profit and call it a day. That's $57,222.22 once you account for the site's cut and the initial $1,500 bet.

But considering that is only a $3K EV for the buyer that might not get any takers so I might go lower.

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I have Sparty 50/550

But that’s online so no prop swap for me

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On 4/3/2019 at 11:51 AM, Huckleberry said:

No, $65K is what he listed it at. I've never been on that site so have no feeling for that market but my first instinct is I'd probably list it at what if games to give me a $50K profit and call it a day. That's $57,222.22 once you account for the site's cut and the initial $1,500 bet.

But considering that is only a $3K EV for the buyer that might not get any takers so I might go lower.

Ah I see.

Really depends on finding the right buyer. Someone that thinks Tech is more likely to win than Vegas is giving them credit for will value it more highly.

If the ticket holder really wanted to make a ballsy play he could wait until the Saturday games and if Tech wins then that ticket is worth twice as much if not more. 

It's a fun exercise. And this isn't the first opportunity he's had to sell it - imagining he could have turned nice a profit as soon as they made the SS or EE.

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Tech opened at +103 for the final.  I hope that guy let it ride.

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Here you go... 

Quote

On a November afternoon this past winter, a man in his 30s walked into The SuperBook at the Westgate Las Vegas and wanted to place bets on two college basketball teams to win the 2019 title. One wager was on Wisconsin at 100-1 odds, and the other was on Texas Tech, a team that had opened at 40-1 back in April, but whose odds had plummeted to 200-1.

The bettor (who didn't wish to be identified for this story) wanted more than $1,500 on Texas Tech, but SuperBook director John Murray declined. "He's a well-known player who takes a lot of futures positions with us," Murray told ESPN. "He asked for more, to which we said, 'No.' I think to win $300K is pretty good."

The bettor settled for a $1,500 ticket on the Red Raiders at 200-1 odds, for a payout of $300,000.

Almost four months later, that ticket is now one game away from cashing. And despite an offer from Dez Bryant and another for $125,000 on PropSwap (a secondary marketplace for sports-betting futures tickets), the bettor is letting it ride.

He has made other college basketball bets since, including several on Virginia winning, so either way, he's going to make some money. But if Tech loses, he'll always be contemplating what could have been.

The bettor told ESPN that sports betting is a hobby of his -- not his full-time job -- and he began around eight years ago.

"It's something that I do for fun," he noted. "I live on the West Coast, so it's somewhat convenient for me to get to Vegas. College basketball is the sport I enjoy watching most, and my interest in betting stemmed from a love of watching sports."

He likes making futures bets on college basketball because of the large variety of teams and long odds available rather than individual games, and he usually makes several trips to Vegas throughout the season to get money down. On long-shot futures: "It's kind of like buying a lottery ticket or a big parlay, but something that I think has a more reasonable chance of winning."

In addition to the $1,500 futures wager on Texas Tech at 200-1, ESPN learned that he also had a $1,500 ticket on Michigan State at 40-1 and an $800 wager on Texas Tech at 125-1 odds (for a potential payout of $100,000). In addition, he has a smaller futures position on Virginia.

"I liked the long odds on Texas Tech at 200-1," the bettor said. "I had bets on them last year at 250-1, and even though they fell short in the Elite Eight, they returned a lot of the same guys and the same coach."

After losing out on all of his long shots last year without hedging (including Clemson at 500-1), the idea of selling a futures bet in a secondary marketplace like PropSwap was very appealing.

"I wasn't aware of PropSwap [before]," he told ESPN. "But it's cool that I can get some money back from these tickets and someone has a chance to win big."

He said $1,500 was "pretty close to his ceiling" in terms of futures bets, which makes the question of hedging all the more interesting. Why not hedge more on such a valuable Texas Tech ticket?

"The way I think about it is, if I hedged they probably wouldn't have won," he told ESPN on Friday. "Say Texas Tech beats Michigan State but Jarrett Culver gets hurt. Then all of your assumptions about Texas Tech and how much you should hedge now and in the final game goes out the window. It's much nicer to take the fixed amount and not have the hassle of thinking about anything else.

"People make hedging sound easier than it is, both in having money lying around [and how to] bet on this stuff. You can easily make a mistake, and then it might not pan out the way you think it might."

For a few hours on Friday afternoon, Bryant had the high bid of $50,000 on PropSwap for the $1,500 Texas Tech ticket (the bettor was asking for $65,000), and the highest official bid came in at $57,500. The bettor declined both bids and let the bet ride into Saturday night's Final Four game against Michigan State.

He did sell his $800 Texas Tech ticket for $20,250 on PropSwap on Saturday morning, hours before the Red Raiders defeated Michigan State 61-51 to advance to Monday night's title game.

He put his $1,500 Texas Tech ticket back up on PropSwap on Sunday but would've needed an astronomical bid to sell. He declined a $125,000 bid.

Lest anyone think he's solely motivated by financial gain, the bettor also has given away several futures bets as -- get this -- wedding and birthday gifts.

"One thing I started doing in the past few years is giving tickets to friends as presents," the bettor recalled. "It could be a birthday present, but my favorite is the wedding present. I think it's a nice thing. They can choose to let a bit of it ride, all of it ride, none of it ride. It's kind of cool to see different people's risk tolerances. It's a good conversation for a couple to have."

And they're not all long shots that don't have a chance to win. Last year, he made one friend some real cash.

"Yeah, I did give Villanova at 6-1 as a birthday present last year," he said with a chuckle. "The couple didn't hedge and Villanova won, which is really cool for them. I'm obviously really happy about it."

It's clear the bettor has a large bankroll and there is a method to his futures betting madness, even though he says he doesn't have a formula determining how much to bet on each team.

Regardless of the outcome Monday night, it has likely been a successful season for him, though he admitted he's in an unfamiliar position with such a long shot.

"I haven't been in a similar situation before," he joked. "But I'm obviously happy to be in it."

 

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"I liked the long odds on Texas Tech at 200-1," the bettor said. "I had bets on them last year at 250-1, and even though they fell short in the Elite Eight, they returned a lot of the same guys and the same coach."

Question for all you degenerates:

Why such long odds if the bolded is true?

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It's not.   Tech lost 4 starters from last season's team, including a first-round pick.  Picked 7th in the league's pre-season pole.

I'm not sure where that guy was getting his information but it wasn't all accurate.  But the coach remained the same and that obviously was important. 

 

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