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texastough

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Everything posted by texastough

  1. Here are my thoughts while we are on a thin news cycle on the war. I'm not military, don't know shit, except that I've been following this closely since February. As everyone here knows, Russia started the invasion by trying to take everything at once, with Russian groups running willy nilly and not coordinating, and an abject failure of logistics. They were stretched way too thin and Ukraine's active defense easily picked them off, leading to Russian defeat/withdrawal from the entire northern part of Ukraine. Since then, Russia has concentrated forces in the east where it is still trying to advance, paving the way with artillery. It has taken a defensive posture elsewhere along the front and has apparently shored up air defenses. In those two months, the front has not changed much, with both sides making minor gains in certain areas. Does this mean a relatively even match in terms of combat power between each side's military, which would lead to a really long war? I don't think so. This may be me wishcasting, but here is what I think the Ukrainian strategy is, and why this will be over within a few more months. Despite all of Russia's problems with logistics, morale, etc, Russia began with a numbers advantage in hardware and personnel. Ukraine has a much better trained and effective military, pound for pound, but is outgunned/outnumbered. That is changing, however. Russia's losses of hardware and troops (kia, wounded, refusing to fight etc) are mounting. Russia seems to be culminating. At the same time, Ukraine has had 3-4 months to train a ton of new volunteers, and western weapons are really starting to flow. Its not like Ukraine needs more motivation, but Russia's continued atrocities give them plenty of urgency. They know that the faster they defeat Russia, the more civilian lives they save. At the same time, attacking too soon not only risks more troop lives, but risks losing the war, a risk Ukraine cannot take. So, what are they waiting for -- when does Ukraine counterattack? I think its pretty simple. Ukraine knows that it needs as great an advantage as it can get in order to go on the offensive. Several factors are converging soon that will set those conditions. First, despite the front line not changing much, the fighting for the last two months has continued to be intense in certain areas, where Russia has tried to advance. This is leading to attrition that favors Ukraine by at lot. In other words, its a lot easier to destroy the Russian military when Ukraine is playing defense. But when Russia stops trying to advance (likely very soon - days or weeks) the attrition will likely slow way down too. As mentioned above, Ukraine is adding a lot of freshly trained troops and the really significant western weapons (HIMARS etc) are just now arriving in numbers. So, I think Ukraine is almost done setting conditions. I think the Ukrainian Kharkiv and Kherson counterattacks were largely feints to see how Russia responded, such as how many reinforcements would be sent and from where. When Ukraine starts its true counterattack, I think it will start at one place, like Kherson, but then as soon as Russia moves to defend, Ukraine will start to counter in other areas too, like Karkhiv/Izium etc. With any luck, this will quickly lead to chaos within the Russian forces and total defeat. I'll put it in August, two months from now. [One thing that has puzzled me is why loitering drones like switchblades haven't made more noise so far, since Ukraine got a bunch of them. They would obviously be a great way to continue attriting Russians while waiting to counterattack. My guess is that the front lines are more or less artillery distance apart, and that is beyond the switchblade's range? In my wildest fantasy, Ukraine has been holding back its loitering drones so that when its counter begins, it can unleash drone swarms advancing ahead of the Ukrainian armor, picking off Russians who run away too slow.]
  2. Do we have a thread yet about "redshirting" kids, i.e. what age should kids enter first grade? We have three with summer birthdays so we are struggling whether to let them go ahead and be among the youngest in their respective classes, or "redshirt" so they'll be among the oldest. Wife keeps hearing everyone redshirts, I hear that not many do.
  3. I wouldn't be able to function without it in that situation
  4. Do you live on a putt putt golf course?
  5. Not while they are still trying to take the Donbas pocket. But, I think that will just hasten the end of the war. The Rascists should have been on the defensive long ago to preserve combat force. Re: Russian citizens being moved into Ukraine, what are the odds the Russian military bombs, tortures, rapes and/or executes some of them?
  6. Never root for OU ever this is the cardinal rule
  7. Ma must be off her meds again IB4C!
  8. Isn't that a hognose?
  9. Some hot takes here. The Russians won't execute the Ukrainian pows because then Ukraine would just do the same to Russian pows. I think they are threatening to execute the foreign fighters to dissuade others from helping Ukraine, but won't go through with it.
  10. Starting pitchers only get a win if they go 5 innings, have the lead when they come out, and the team does not lose the lead
  11. Not sure I agree with your math there Bill
  12. My read is that rather than a true "counter attack," it is more of a withdrawal by whats left of the Russian forces after being mostly decimated
  13. It usually happens mid June so I imagine this weekend is early.
  14. Haven't seen this posted yet. Another shakedown? Anybody heard their reasoning? https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527034026460061696?s=20&t=113IKSfDQs84fd58VJILqA Edit: apparently they want changes in election law in Bosnia to favor Bosnian Croats, but apparently this is unlikely to hinder Finland/Sweden joining
  15. Yes, rate snake. Good snek. Here's the master thread:
  16. If the number that came out of Azovstal is a big (i.e. 1,000 or so) it has to include not only lots of seriously wounded, but non combat personnel, civilians, etc. No way 1,000 troops would surrender. I'm a bit puzzled because I would think Russia would claim a lower number, so that they would never have to account for them, or it be discovered for instance on a prisoner exchange.
  17. http://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1526641113691570176
  18. Russian quality of life and expectations are so low, I see it as a huge opportunity. Prostrate the country before the world to eventually lift sanctions, then pump O&G money into the country instead of the military and kleptocracy. Seems like low hanging fruit to me.
  19. I’ve been hoping so too. Not only to relieve Mariupol but also to cut off resupply from crimea. A pincer to go with the Kharkiv offensive
  20. They’re not going to push all the way to transnistria, Odesa, or even advance past Kherson either
  21. I think its worth noting that players don't have to "transfer out" since in the days of NIL players can be on "scholarship" without using an official 'ship
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