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texastough

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Everything posted by texastough

  1. Trump can’t appeal any relief granted to him in trial court, but he can appeal denials by the judge. It shouldn’t take a special master long to determine what’s trump property and what’s government property out of what the fbi took
  2. Seems lots of folks, both "experts" and some posters here, are handwringing about a relatively static frontline and basically interpreting that one data point to mean that Ukraine lacks the capability to go on a major offensive and retake significant territory anytime soon. I don't know shit, but that sounds a lot like everyone predicting Ukraine would fall within days when the war began. Some describe the current situation as a stalemate. But is it really a stalemate when Ukraine is continuing to degrade Russian forces at a significantly higher rate than their own losses? HIMARS are wreaking havoc on Russian logistics and command centers. Russia is still trying to mount lots of local offensives, which for the most part are being repelled and in lots of cases with heavy losses. On top of that, the flow of arms to Ukraine is increasing, and fresh troops are being trained to NATO standards. If you are the Ukrainian military, would you prefer to mount a major offensive before or after tens of thousands of trained reinforcements and $3 billion more in arms arrive, and HIMARS finishes destroying its targets? Before or after rubbing out Russian offensives that degrade Russian forces at a 4:1 clip over Ukraine's? To me, Ukraine is simply setting conditions and using the same strategy that took back the north -- destroy logistics and such until Russian cannot effectively defend, much less go on the offensive. If you read the tea leaves, I also think Ukraine has a plan. This is something I've been thinking about since Ukraine announced the southern offensive. At the time, I was asking why on earth Ukraine would announce that? Now I believe it was purposeful disinformation aimed at drawing a lot of Russian forces to Kherson oblast. The immediate effect of that was to take pressure off the Donbas front line, where artillery had just closed the Sieverdonesk pocket. Causing a lot of Russian BTG's to be transferred to Kherson meant that they were in a much more precarious logistical position, not only across a major river but also as far from Russian resupply as anywhere on the frontline. But if the announcement of the southern counteroffensive was a purposeful headfake, I don't believe it was done only to take pressure off the Donbas frontlines. Ukraine knows that it needs to make some advances soon to maintain support for the war. I think it was because the main counteroffensive will begin elsewhere. Today the Mayor of Melitopol tweeted that residents should evacuate before winter, purportedly due to lack of gas for heat. I'm going to make another bold prediction and say its because thats where the counteroffensive will start. After Ukraine has set all the conditions it can, and tipped the balance of military power as far as it can in its favor -- I believe within the next month or two -- Ukraine makes a major push into Zaporizhia oblast. If successful, it would divide Russian forces in half, with a big part of the southern half pinned across the Dnipro in Kherson with absolutely no hope of resupply. Those forces would fold. At the same time, Ukraine could advance on the east well behind the front, where Russia has had a lot of time to dig in, set mines, etc. Will it work? No idea. Ukraine probably only has one shot to make this happen soon, if it fails then we are in for a long war. But Ukraine is being helped by NATO military expertise and intelligence, not to mention the factors above, and definitely has morale on its side. I think when it happens Russian forces fold like a cheap track suit. P.S. I'm also waiting for undercover operatives to put a detonator in an ammo car on a train thats about to head over the Kerch bridge.
  3. IMO, Russia is using the ZPP first and foremost as a base where they know they won't get blown up by Ukraine. But being the sadistic opportunists they are, I think they are also using the threat to either/both cause Ukraine to capitulate or erode western support for Ukraine (through people demanding to stop the war). While they are dumb, I don't think they are dumb enough to go through with it, because I think the west responds by declaring Russia a terrorist state and probably with a no fly zone leading to Russian defeat pretty quickly. We need to stand strong and call the bluff.
  4. Holy shit, yesterday sounds like a good day for AFU. 400 troops is nice, but *69* "vehicles & fuel tanks" is a huge day. Maybe a bunch of trucks etc were at the base in Belgorod that blew up?
  5. I'm kind of surprised nobody has posted this yet: https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct "Top findings: The leadership of the intelligence-run wing of the International Legion is allegedly implicated in various violations, including abuse, theft, and sending soldiers unprepared on reckless missions. One of the unit’s commanders and a frequent subject of the soldiers’ complaints is an alleged former member of a criminal organization from Poland, wanted at home for fraud. In the Legion’s unit, he is involved in coordinating military operations and logistics. The legion’s fighters accuse him of abusing power by ordering soldiers to loot shops, threatening soldiers with a gun, and sexually harassing the legion’s female medics." After reading the article, I see it as a situation where there were a few bad apples in the foreign legion, and the Ukrainian gov't was too busy trying to save its country to do something about it right away. Hopefully this article spurs the gov to get the Polish mobsters out of the foreign legion. My layman perspective/belief is that UKR should want every foreign SOF volunteer it can get, and should do everything it can to set these guys up to destroy Russians. Disappointing but I don't think a systemic problem.
  6. Good call! http://wartranslated.com/ukrainian-informational-operations-cause-panic-in-crimea/
  7. RF don't have any counter battery that can hit HIMARS at the distances they are being fired from, even if RF knew where, do they?
  8. Finland is waiting on 16 countries to sign and "deposit" their NATO accession protocol.
  9. Because they already joined?
  10. Posts no source for the claim that US would withhold aid if Ukraine participated in talks, instead claims that arms are escaping Ukraine but posts no source for that either
  11. Which is . . . exactly what we’re doing? Seriously, go sniff farts with immaculate vibes
  12. That would feel good but they are needed to trade for pows
  13. Did Lavrov really admit that more than 50% RU troops have been killed???
  14. No. It is apparently all about having trained dudes to maintain the launchers, and having lots of ammo. One launcher can fire a stupid number of times per day and have a big range. They don’t need many more launchers, they need a steady supply of missiles and logistical support
  15. Don't tell me their Army knife isn't a great innovation
  16. Here's my fan fiction re: Snake Island. Ukraine controlling this island does not give them control of all of the Black Sea shipping lanes, but it does give Ukraine control of Ukrainian waters. Putin has bluffed that as a gesture of goodwill, Russia vacated the island and will allow grain shipments. So, call the bluff. Have some NATO member send cargo ships to Odessa to pick up grain, or send a NATO escort. If/when Russia fires on the ships in Romanian or Bulgarian waters, it triggers article V. Then, NATO imposes a no-fly zone, cripples the Russian Black Sea fleet, etc.
  17. It seems thats where we're headed. The arms announced the last couple days have been massive.
  18. If putting missiles & air defense out there can open the shipping lanes it would totally be worth it
  19. Put some Harpoons and Exocets out there along with one of the fancy NATO air defense systems and voila
  20. I'm no math expert, but that might tip the balance a bit
  21. Statements to him by Trump in furtherance of a crime would fall under the exception, isn't that the real point anyway? They're not trying to nail Pasquale. In other words, Trump kept saying he wanted to commit sedition and Cipollone kept telling him no
  22. sorry how do you embed a tweet?
  23. wtf https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1541807381469974531?s=20&t=na_R1OG_aYIw4J8KEx2xmQ
  24. With those kind of negotiation skills, Lithuania may end up paying Russia to take back the suwalki gap
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