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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Collin Simmons was just a DEI recruit taking a spot from a qualified Jett Bush type.
  2. This is ignoring the amount of people (and money) on the sidelines in the housing market because they don't like the interest rate environment. A decrease in interest rates without an economic slowdown is going to lead to an increase in home prices - and a significant one at that - because we are still structurally undersupplied.
  3. This. Post-Trump MAGA will splinter due to a power vacuum. Whether or not they win elections will depend entirely on whether Trump is put back in the WH in 2024 or 2028 and the US becomes Hungary 2.0. An up or down vote on enshrining abortion rights in the Texas constitution would pass too.
  4. Bruh imagine betting on Ron DeSantis as the favorite to the the next President of the United States at literally any point in time. Trumpism doesn't work when you try to package it in a conventional, consultant-approved political box because that is antithetical to its very nature. It can only work with a circus conductor like Trump. This. Idiocracy was a documentary.
  5. Would be fascinating if not for the stakes.
  6. We had lunch in Los Olivos (Nella, Italian, very good). Little more to it now - the road is paved lol - and there are several tasting rooms, distilleries, restaurants, etc. At least one small, upscale hotel. Not overcrowded by any means though. Solvang was a lot and had tourist trap energy on a Sunday afternoon. Bar Le Cote in LO is supposed to be a phenomenal seafood place.
  7. This is the case in most major polls. He takes from both candidates and it's common for Biden to be on the losing end of that. Everyone's focused on the antivax, conspricary theory bits that draws some former Trumpers, but there are plenty of relatively apathetic voters that went for Biden last time, don't care for either candidate now, and are liable to case a vote for him. RFK isn't going to get 10%, I'm not super worried about low info Democrats voting RFK; they will come home as they check in. It's the independents for whom RFK will serve as a protest vote that is concerning given his instant name recognition.
  8. We were just in Santa Barbara in February and had a great time. Summerland Beach Cafe is a nice, quaint spot right off the highway and there is a beautiful county park overlooking the ocean right across the road. Cold Springs Tavern up in the Santa Ynez Mountains above SB is iconic and worth checking out, good tri tip sandwich. Lots of other good restaurants in Santa Barbara. Depending on how slow you're taking it, you may be interested in a day trip to Channel Islands NP, ferries run out of Ventura. They depart at 9/10am and have you back about 4/5pm.
  9. First year in a while they didn't raise the cost of OU tickets, so there's that.
  10. That's a fucking stupid plan but they could certainly effectively tilt swing states to Trump without getting much of the vote.
  11. It is incredibly bad at UT and A&M, and as the two largest/most prestigious institutions the discrimination from those schools has the biggest economic and cultural impact. UT is 6% black, the flagship university of a state with a black population 2x that proportion. If I recall correctly this is sadly even better than when I graduated 10 years ago, I believe it was 4% black at the time. Aggy has over 70k students and 2% of them are black, basically a meme of what you'd expect reading texags. For context, SMU and TCU - known across the state for being bubbles for rich white kids - are both 5% black. More than 2x the black student population of aggy and comparable to UT. That's where our flagship public schools are. It's shameful. Interestingly, UT's 37% white population mirrors the state, it is asian students massively overrepresented at 23%. This is true to a lesser extent at aggy (10%) but to no one's surprise, aggy is much whiter than the state as a whole (57%). Tech is just 6% black and majority white, below the state but probably not as bad relative to the area it primarily serves given most of the state's black population is on or east of the I-35 corridor. The two major DFW campuses appear to be doing the best in a relative sense. UNT is 14% black, slightly above the state and slightly below the 16% of the DFW metro. UT Arlington is 15% black; UT Arlington gets pretty close to the state at 31/31/15 white/hispanic/black, but has a large asian student population as well. Texas State probably most closely reflects the state but still overrepresents white students at 42%, 41% hispanic, 10% black, 3% asian. UH is 10%, close to the state but well under the 17% of the Houston MSA. Pretty bleak overall, because the full picture is one where black students are significantly underrepresented at the largest public universities and are sub 5% in aggregate at the top two campuses.
  12. ERCOT will probably get censured by the Legislature for being woke in next year's session.
  13. Blue was the better back at the end of last season and it wasn't particularly close. Baxter is getting the hype because he was the 5 star and you'd expect a bigger jump from a player going from year 1 to 2 than one going from 2 to 3, but I don't think it's a hot take to say Blue will be heavily involved or will be the best back. That'd just mean picking up where things left off (ideally a better version where both have made progress).
  14. Logically you'd think this based on the antivax and conspiracy theory stuff but polls show it's pretty evenly split, if not a little worse for Biden. I have no doubt some of that are disaffected and/or low info Democrats that will come home. How many don't? That's the million dollar question. Trump's gotten 46% of the popular vote twice and is likely to fall in line with that again. His support has a low ceiling, but a high floor given the cult of personality. I don't imagine RFK ultimately peels off too many Trumpers because of the cult element. If RFK gets an electorally significant number of votes, it's because of defected D/independents, which hurts Biden.
  15. I'm not arguing with the latter. That wasn't the claim. The former was.
  16. Ah, yes, "definitely look better" (which I think everyone would agree with and is documented in averages) is totally the same as "basically every single poll has Biden ahead now." This is my point.
  17. RFK is a little worrisome because of how low info the American electorate is and how well funded their campaign is. He's not getting double digits but if they lean into a disinformation campaign they can definitely get up into the 5%+ range and swing the election to Trump. Maybe he'll run out of money, maybe he'll say some outlandishly stupid things (didn't stop Gary Johnson from hitting that threshold), maybe more detailed media coverage will effectively shine a light on his nuttiness. It's early, but there's a universe where he's a big problem.
  18. I'm sorry, what? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls/ https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024#! I'm not one to make a ton of polls this early either way but the copium on this board can border on disinformation at times.
  19. This is the correct answer.
  20. What is three precision strikes on an aid convoy? Negged again, you piece of shit.
  21. No one is ever "far beyond that," especially not 2024 Texas given historical context and coaching/roster turnover. The staff worked very hard to establish the conditions that allowed for a 12-1 season last year and now several of the players and coaches that made that possible are gone. To think Texas wouldn't invest in a culture guy is a head scratcher.
  22. Putin was in the KGB for 15 years and has openly mourned the collapse of the USSR. Any strategic goals seem to pale in comparison to the nostalgic? - I don't know if that's the right word - desire to reestablish the Soviet empire/sphere of influence, regardless of whether or not it's strategically sensible or viable.
  23. Jesus, fuck this bitch ass post. You were happy to keep banging the drum, then when presented with the obvious logical extension to your argument you just fold and say "well war is bad amirite" Negged. I am embarrassed to read shit like this out of someone who graduated form the University of Texas.
  24. You joined a college sports board in the middle of the NCAA tournament, baseball/softball season, and spring football. Yet you have proceeded to make zero posts in any of the sports forums, instead opting to talk about crypto and attempting to...*checks notes*... cry wolf about communism over the idea that Boeing is an example of a company for whom safety has to come before juicing profits. Fuck off weirdo. You'd fit in better on TexAgs.
  25. Even if it is a mistake - and I agree it's unlikely someone literally said/thought, "Oh look it's perhaps the highest profile aid organization operating in Gaza, let's light'em up!" - it's emblematic of so much more. That's the point.
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