-
Posts
7732 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
6
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Store
Downloads
Recruiting - 2020
2019-2020 Football Season
Football
Entertainment
Sports
News and Business
Cloak Room
Transfer Portal
Recruiting
Events
Everything posted by Laxtonto
-
Lots of unconfirmed rumors out there that he may have died in the blast on a strike on his bunker NW of Tehran. I give it 60% its true. I would go higher, but none of the regional Arab news are saying anything either way. Worth monitoring because there have already been reports of others in the government already leaving for Russia and other parts. Regardless, I think Israel now has the green light from the rest of the ME that he is a valid target with limited reprisals.
-
A few new things... 1. Israel has been fairly restrained "so far" vs the Iranaian economic targets. Not sure how long it stays that way. 2. Estimates are that before this all started, Iran had approximately 2,200 ballistic missiles. Of those, there are reports of 200+ that have already been launched and at least that (with estimates much higher) being destroyed in the initial round of air strikes. Being pessimistic, Iran has less than 20 sets of active large-scale strikes. Essentially Israel knows that Iran has only so many mass strikes available. 3. The drone strikes (a la the Ukrainian truck carrier approach) has had a large enough impact that Iran has in essence, grounded truck traffic in most of the country. To me that is fucking wild. 4. Lots of non-military adjacent politicians and their families are heading to Russia right now. Not a major surprise, but interesting to see them accept that Israel has operational control of the air and can attack all cities at will. This forces them to either live in bunkers for the foreseeable future or pull out to Russia, with many doing the latter. 5. The wild idea of China being an impartial arbitrator in all of this ignores the simple fact that they (and India) are a major destination for Iranian crude and natural gas shipments from the fabled "ghost fleets. That being said, they actually might be a good choice because their interests align with Iran only if the Iranian refineries still exist. That would put an impetus on Iran to negotiate if their major destination of exports for hard currency is the one trying to be the middleman in this situation. 6. The BBC reports that Israel has been "ineffective" in stopping refinement capabilities in the more hardened facilities is partially true. That being said, I expect Israel to flatten everything they can and then go from there. This is why they keep pushing for US involvement because they do t have an airframe that can deliver the knockout blow to these hardened facilities. I do wonder at some point if we see Israeli troops on the ground in a few specific sites, just to finish the job. 7. It is staggering how the rest of the big players in the ME are just staying out of this. Not a peep out of Egypt, Saudi and Jordan are allowing fly overs. Iraq is trying to be as noncommittal as their current situation allows them. I am really surprised we have not seen more blowback from the rest of the ME. Outside of the rogue groups within Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria, causing some issues, this has been extremely localized. In truth, I am stunned.... 8. Iran can still threaten to try and close the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, but with how the rest of the ME has reacted so far, I would be surprised if they allow anything more than a token disturbance to happen..
-
Two MN lawmakers and their spouses shot by someone impersonating police
Laxtonto replied to TexasHooch's topic in Daily Texan
No, they both voted. One in the their House and the other in their Senate. If you would like, go look it up here and here. That is directly from the Minnesota's .gov system. That was the reason I looked it up because it seemed too stupid to be to actually be believable... This may end up being politically inconvenient for people, but if the local reports are correct, this is going to get much worse because the name being provided to local law enforcement is someone embedded in Minnesota state politics. This whole thing is fucking wild. It has no real part in the the fabric of America and the whole thing is a travesty. Minnesota has always been their own strain of weird politically, but for the most part has been fairly civil with their differences. If the name being circulated is the true, it makes no sense to me. -
Two MN lawmakers and their spouses shot by someone impersonating police
Laxtonto replied to TexasHooch's topic in Daily Texan
Both elected Democrats (one a former Speaker of the Minnesota House) voted with the Republicans to remove illegal immigrants from Minnesota Care this week (HF001). One was in the Minnesota House and the other in the Minnesota Senate. The Bill passed 68-65 in the Minnesota House and 37-30 in the Minnesota Senate. Everyone I know in Minneapolis is going WTF... -
They will always have ballistic missiles buried in the mountains (though once they are launched, that launcher is probably toast) and so they can just lob missiles at cities to try and overwhelm their anti-missile systems or hope the shrapnel of the knocked down missiles hits the population and economic base. So basically, they are then more of a terror weapon than military weapons and it means the population for both countries are under constant air/missile warnings from it. While war is war, Israel is giving Iran the option of military targets only or military and economic targets. The issue is that the only economic targets for Iran are oil/natural gas and 90% of their refining capability is centralized in one spot. If Israel wants to go there, Iran can not stop them. This was one of the US threats when discussing Iran getting their proxies in line in the past, and I would suspect the Israelis are much less restrained in their actions if Iran does not back down. The problem here is that limits the Iranian response because their ballistic and drone capabilities are going to be much less precise, and so there are a smaller set of military targets that would fall under the margin of error of their guidance systems.
-
Here is a big one... I say this because now Israel is in visible negotiations with Iran regarding their response and now put the Iranian oil fields on the table as a viable target. The fact that so far this has only been explicit military/nuclear capability targets is probably more restraint than expected, and now Israel is openly dictating the terms of what is a viable response if the current leadership wants to stay in power long-term. The destruction of the Iranian refineries on Kharg Island would essentially destroy all oil/natural gas export capabilities of Iran and their only real avenue for hard currency. Can Iran be restrained in their response while saving enough face to keep their proxies in line? I am guessing no, and Israel torches only a portion of the infrastructure of the Khuzestan Basin at the start and tells OPEC to get Iran in line or they are going to hit Kharg Island. That is the real jewel economically for Iran and OPEC will either have to demand Iran to play ball or Iran gets economically neutered and most of the major players in the ME no longer have a financial reason to put up with their bullshit.
-
Normally, I would agree because of the regional aspect would make all the rest of the ME be forced to go after Israel. Now, I am not so sure. Saudi is signalling they want more normalized relationships with Israel and the long-standing Arab vs. Persian (Shia vs Sunni) rivalry has always made Saudi/Iran unlikely bedfellows. If Israel is promising a move back to the prior Irian monarchy will be the result and with it an end of the headaches caused by the Iranian proxy wars, I could see several of the ME countries signing off. My guess is that it is more going to be a classic "color revolution" that will be pushed by others in the ME after Israel neutralizes the Iranian military's ability to commit to mass reprisals. As an interesting datapoint in all of this, Iran has cut off all internet access to the country.
-
That top one has to Mossad disinfo to try and stir up a further purge in the Quds. If this is actually true, I have no words for the level embarrassment this would be for the Iranian security forces. Also, if this is true, how is the ayatollah still alive? This level of access would would mean that Israel would have backdoor access to the political leadership movements and would be one of the few people that would be expected to have access to the ayatollah at all times.
-
Some quick things that should now be obvious that people don't seem to really accepting: Big Picture 1. Yesterday was day 61 from when the current administration told Iran they needed a deal in 60 days. All of the other news surrounding the U.S. being against the attacks are just theater. 2. If it hasn't been figured out, this was all worked out during the ME trip recently and greenlit as a contingency if Iran did not come to terms. 3. Saudi, Jordan, and Quatar are all at worst allowing this to happen with Saudi being the most active providing help on the fringes. 4. Of the proxies out there that generally bend over backwards to help Iran, only the Yemen Houthies have been vocal about it. Lebanon went out of their way to publicly muzzle Hezbolah regarding providing support to Iran. Note that so far the Houthies have only denounced Israel without mentioning the US. Iran/Israel conflict itself 1. Israel has operational control of the skies over Iran and has since the prior set of attacks in Oct 2024. It was rumored to be much more successful vs the current Iranian AD systems that being reported, but it is now obvious that Iran now can not stop the Israeli air force. 2. Israel has been on the ground in Iran for weeks. The level of infiltration by the Mossad in Iran is something that is being understated. It was a scary wakeup call for Iran when they killed Ismail Haniyeh in July of 2024 in Tehran, but the level of infiltration is well beyond what anyone suspected. 3. Many of the targets hit were obviously being surveilled right until impact and the number assets needed to do something at this scale is a feat that is very hard to achieve with this level of success. What is more subtle about all of this is that some these assets must still active as they have been used for secondary decapitation strikes, such as the strike on the Iranian AF command. The only way you can pull off that level of strike after the initial element of surprise is over is by having boots on the ground. 4. Isreal set up and used a similar drone swarm "carrier" approach that Ukraine used to target pre-identified Ballistic missile stockpile and launcher. The Israel intel has been so complete that there is little doubt it came from within. Now, whether was it acquired or given to Mossad is going to be a point on contention, but there is no way this number of targets were acquired, identified, and then equipped with some type of homing/target acquisition beacon could have been done through just basic visual/sigint/sat work. This is probably the most subtle point that is going to get glossed over, but the failure of information security within Iran is the only way some of these targets could ever be identified and being that the variety of easily mobile targets destroyed is so high, this failure has to be complete on a variety of systems, across a variety intelligence/military silos, with support from human assets that work within these silos. 5. Mossad is fucking scary...
- 9240 replies
-
- 14
-
-
-
The reports about lack of action and defensive response may be tied to they have nobody to give them orders and not sure how to proceed... Didn't help that after their last President died in the heli crash, there was a large internal purge in the maneuvering to find his replacement (who is sounds like is now dead anyways)... This led to a hollowing of that next level down and so we are now having even "newer" personnel in charge now that probably arent as nuanced in thier understanding on what options they have as a response.. Much like with the beepers, Israel cut the head off the snake, and the military response is suffering from the lack of leadership.
-
Looks like Mossad just keeps knowing where everyone is all the time...
-
Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: Boulevard of Broken Bagmen
Laxtonto replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
Get ready for the melt... -
aggy is going to melt...
- 3650 replies
-
- 26
-
-
-
Damn...
-
Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: Boulevard of Broken Bagmen
Laxtonto replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
I got a feeling Kenny Baker might have been a great under the radar hire that people are going to look back at and go WTF were we thinking with their negative takes... -
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... COOKIE MONSTER!