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Captainant

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Captainant

  1. Could go in the markets thread, but it's relevant to discussion here: the AI bubble is 17x the dotcom bubble, and 4x the subprime housing bubble https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ai-bubble-is-17-times-the-size-of-the-dot-com-frenzy-this-analyst-argues-046e7c5c TLDR: LLM's are already showing signs of scaling limitations (see energy costs), and apps built on an LLM don't have much marketability since it's so easily replicated. So there's not much market incentive to use the increasingly more and more expensive latest models. All the CapEx spending that's been keeping LGU economics happy, is not well positioned to generate returns on all the financial commitments made
  2. Obligatory coffezilla breakdown of someone making $190,000,000 on shorts in crypto markets
  3. Holy shit Nibblet where's that been all year?
  4. Holy fucking shit Arch is dog shit
  5. Glad I'm driving for my next slate of business travel, JFC
  6. Heptyl == UDMH, which is a common hypergolic fuel in use since the 60s. Combine with red fuming nitric acid or nitrogen tetroxide and baby, you've got a rocket goin. Almost certainly a fuck up
  7. Trump, stiffing his workers on pay? UNPOSSIBLE!
  8. my fantasy football opponent this week has Scat starting against me, so I'm not a fan
  9. lmao when Biden suggested that we should eat less beef it was met with REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE and a wave of disinformation. How the turn tables
  10. his negotiations led to Gaza getting flattened? Not sure what's to celebrate about that.
  11. WTF the government is shut down and we can't pay federal workers, but we'll do a $20,000,000,000 currency swap with Argentina to take their shitty hyperinflationary pesos? https://apnews.com/article/trump-bessent-argentina-milei-currency-swap-7432a188e57264f0e5f6c753ddc40879 absolute horseshit, and I'd love to see one of our resident cheeto suckers defend it
  12. literally F35's dropping American bombs into Gaza. No disagreement there whatsoever. We didn't start the fire, but we sure haven't been trying to fight it.
  13. It more or less starts with the Entente Powers from WWI fucking with the Ottoman Empire to secure oil fields, and destroying the existing tribal and national boundaries and redrawing them to whatever was most advantagous to their colonial interests. That's what upset the balance in the region, and set the table for Israel's recognition as a State post-WWII. Think "Lawrence of Arabia", but literally that. The Shah of Iran doesn't happen without that, and Iran's generally antagonistic stance to the West is a direct consequence of that chain of events. Setting the goalpost at "no more conflict ever" is unrealistic, but there certainly wouldn't be carpet bombing hospitals and religious wars if it weren't for the concerted Western effort to proselytze the region over and over and over and over again. (imo)
  14. You mean besides masking the overall rotten state of the economy outside of data center build-outs?
  15. The crazy thing is - generative AI is definitionally producing an "average" or "center of gravity" of all the data it's taken as training data to set its weights and biases within the neural network. At a mathematical level, it will produce average outputs. In some cases, like boilerplate code/text generation or simple data transformations, that's insanely powerful. But it's NOT something that will come up with new ideas or expand on a vision. It literally CAN'T do that on its own.
  16. They really furked it on the 3-2-1 strategy. A petabyte is a shitload of data, but goddamn it's not THAT much. I've got 48TB of RAID storage, and that was just under a grand. A State could put together an offsite backup solution ricky-tick. Hell, get a Starcraft player on it to micromanage and it'll be done in record time
  17. Lmfao yeah dude we're ALL paying for that grid build out. Electricity rates are high and only going up BTC mining is literally just wasting energy and capitalizing entropy. Those schemes would not be viable if it weren't for our state paying them subsidies. Fuckouttahere
  18. for real, they were playing without any fire or pride in the Swamp last weekend. Nobody has eachother's back, and the team feels incredibly mercenary
  19. good 'ol Zapital carry
  20. 1) this is completely decoupled from reality. So far, power build outs have been elmo dropping dozens of unregulated NatGas plants next to his datacenters in TN and poisoning whole towns and their populations. 2) genAI datacenters are not generalizable to other problem domains. They're basically massive fucking racks of GPU's with a shitload of cooling and power attached that consume obscene amounts of energy for their usable output. Plus, they're eating all the oxygen in the space and forcing other firms to reconsider their own on-prem tech buildouts for general compute 3) GPU's have only gotten more expensive over the last decade. There are not more foundries coming online (accessible to the US) to keep up with the demand for top-of-the-line chips. EVERYONE is going to TSMC, and they are bottlenecked to hell and back again. Plus, these genAI GPU's are being ran HARD and have a lifespan of one to three years (source) So they're building a bubble that is gonna pop and leave a bunch of literally toxic, rotting assets that will not continue to deliver value to pay off CapEx deprecation
  21. that's the thing though, I have customers using genAI for ACTUAL business usecases and it's incredibly useful! When scoped correctly with an actual unsolved business problem they're trying to address. They're doing things like feeding in decades of paper contracts and extracting key fields like IF the charged rate changes, WHEN it changes, and other key fields, and building a master data record for their accounting team to go and true up all their ongoing service rates. But that whole project is like maybe $10k a month in used compute and genAI token consumption. It doesn't take that much computational power to achieve meaningful business outcomes. But true to form, idiot executives are seeing that something works at one size so therefore it MUST work at the giga-scale, and of course it's generalizable to every problem domain. I am also dealing with alot of goofballs doing things like feeding in large tabular datasets and asking an LLM for a trend or classification of groups inside that dataset, rather than using a traditional method like XGBoost or K-means clustering, or some other traditional machine learning technique. There's SOOOOO MUCH a trend of uninformed people using genAI to solve every problem, which is giving false business signals that every problem IS and WILL be solved by genAI. Even when there's significantly better (qualatatively and quantatatively), more mature, and CHEAPER means to achieve the same outcome. It's madness.
  22. (can't open the link it's paywalled) their stock is down... AFTER a massive pump from the NVDA announcement. It's a salient example of how unsustainable that business model is. You're proving my point that all the GPU's NVDA is selling to companies under CapEx are purely speculative. See: Oracle's Stargate project that is failing to launch in Abiline, which is where most of their NVDA purchases are planned to be hosted. You're getting access to that horrifically expensive and energy intensive model precisely BECAUSE they don't have paying customers. Oracle's whole recent stock growth story has been via genAI CapEx spending, and their marking down of profits that are fur suuuure gonna come through. Their main buyer is OpenAI, who aren't making a profit and are burning money like mad. OpenAI's main buyers are smaller companies like CursorAI or CharacterAI, which aren't making a profit and burning money like mad. It's all paper tigers and irrational exuberance all the way down.
  23. Hey, look! More price fixing and illegal collusion to ARTIFICIALLY INFLATE PRICES and extract wealth from nonwealthy people. But lulz, $141M is just a cost of doing business given they made billions off of ripping off renters https://fortune.com/2025/10/03/americas-landlords-settle-claim-they-used-rent-setting-algorithms-to-gouge-consumers-nationwide-for-141-million/ Real estate giant Greystar and 25 other property management companies have agreed to collectively pay more than $141 million to settle a class action lawsuit accusing landlords of driving up housing costs by using rent-setting algorithms offered by the software company RealPage. Greystar, the nation’s largest landlord, would pay $50 million under the proposed settlement agreement, which was filed Wednesday in a Tennessee federal court. The deal would still require a judge’s approval. The companies have also agreed to no longer share nonpublic information with RealPage for its rent algorithm — a key stipulation, since plaintiffs say RealPage used that information to enable landlords to align their prices and push up rents. “This represents a fundamental shift in the multifamily housing industry and will help reverse the type of anticompetitive coordination alleged in the Complaint,” attorneys wrote in the settlement filing.
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