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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. Fucking Varsho. That’s a former catcher doing larceny at CF 2X tonight.
  2. Astros pitching prospects I’ve been super hyped about: Forest Whitley (I still sort of believe) Hunter brown arrighetti blubaugh Ullola. The Arrighetti injury is so sad. If blubaugh can keep his elbow intact I think we have a good one.
  3. Dfa him. At best he’s a 5th OF thats even though he averages like 2.8 WAR per season played (150 type games)
  4. I feel like you are ignoring yeoman work Jfkfc has done on that front.
  5. Don’t tell me about “latest politicized issue dude”. I’ve been saying this for 30 months. Consistently. And I’ve been right literally every single time I’ve said it. And I was calling for them to raise rates 4 years ago (or at least 3.5).
  6. But we pretended they were and market priced accordingly. it’s awesome that the Fed drives looking through the review rather than the windshield.
  7. Not sure why it’s not just Ullola.
  8. 910k jobs that didn’t exist? Messing up the industry for like a year. habibs take
  9. Add not a bunch of dumb shit penalties and yeah- that’s what I wanted to see and didn’t from the last game.
  10. I do watch other teams play. Sometimes it feels like I’m the only one with all the idiots saying 7-5/8-4/9-3 ceiling after Texas games. That’s dumb. This team could be special with that defense and kicking game, but… man…
  11. To me beat yourself means turnovers, penalties and dumb shit stuff that's self inflicted, not being fucking incapable of scoring on good teams. The former is about self inflicted bullshit, the latter is sort of about what your actual quality as a program is. It's a slight distinction but after a loss we say things like "if only we wouldn't have done this, that or the other we'd have won" while they say things like- if only we were capable of completing a forward pass we would have won. There's a distincition there even if there's not a difference. I bet on the incompetant team (them) over the one that likes to cut itself so that it can feel alive (us) if it all comes down to the end of the game.
  12. Also, holy shit I've been selling sunshine on this program for 4 years now- since december of 21 when Sark killed the recruiting and the portal. I've got optimistic threads in 2022 and 2023 where I had the zeitgeist of this team and this program right with the arrow pointed up, while a confederacy of dunces surrounded me bleating stupid shit like "6-6 with 8-4 as an absolute ceiling" or "we are losing to Bama" or "we won't be ready for the SEC" or all sorts of other nonsense. Hell, even in the darkest post I've made on here in forever I still say 10-2 or 11-1 and playoffs, losing in the quarters or semi's. That's not exactly grim, that's just what this team looks like to me as a best case scenario, unless we get a lot better, which, hey it could happen and I want it to. If I'm a little more surly than normal I got into some poison ivy while trying to fix up a rental house and it's covering my entier body with rashes, blisters and my eyes swollen shut, head to toes, stomach, legs and gooner. It's day 6. Chat GPT tells me it's the worst from day 4-7. Holy hell I'm miserable, itching, swelling, unable to sleep etc. At least I'm on enough steroids to hit a home run at MMP right now.
  13. I mean- this is why I’m perfectly comfortable saying we go 11-1 or 10-2 and are favored in all our games sans perhaps Georgia. it’s a shitty year for college football with no great teams, but Ohio state has shown they aren’t going to literally beat themselves and I would guess the same about PSU, Notre Dame, probably Georgia. None of those teams are “good” and PSU is really really shitty at doing anything against similarly talented teams, but would you bet on us right now down 13-7 with 1st and 20 on the 20 to punch it in and beat them?
  14. I mean- did I say Alabama looked like pressed asshole on a mirror before they won back to back titles? No. I started calling them Alabraska 2 seconds before we made that happen. Hope I'm wrong on this. If your boy Parker is as good as you keep telling everyone he is then we will probably be ok. I, unlike you, am suspicous of white WR's not named Shipley and need to see more of that kind of dynamism from #13 before I think our offense is going to be able to overcome a mediocre OL, backs that run for only what's blocked with no dynamism, other WR that don't separate and drop balls that hit them in the hand and a QB who spent large portions of the first 2 weeks skipping rocks. Oh- and penalties and dumb 4th down calls (not going but what we choose to do when we go for it).
  15. Yes. We will beat the piss out of UTEP. What you said about arch is why I’m down. I saw an offense that’s less talented than we’ve had the last 2 years but able to be overcome with dynamism at QB. If Arch was great and a force multiplier it would overcome Quinn’s weaknesses and we’d be better. That doesn’t look like the case. That’s the problem. Sure. I thought in year 3 arch would be ready to be really good. If he’s a 1/1 guy you are looking for generational type play. Not perfection right off but more than we are getting now. Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe go fuck yourself gif. You think Sark is happy about what we are putting on film right now offensively? I doubt it. Whenever we struggled against teams like rice during Mack we were good, not great teams. That’s driving my concern here. Feels a lot like 2002 type teams. Yep. also- whoever quoted Htwown thanks for nothing. He eats paint chips. I didn’t bet this game and bet almost nothing. I also probably have less than 5,000 a year at risk in total bets and finish within 1,000 of break even one way or another as is the case when you make a ton of 25 and 50 bets. I spend way more on vacations, Astros tickets and longhorn travel as far as entertainment goes. The idea that a couple small bets (I didn’t make any so far this year other than my season bet which is still in good shape) would color my perception of this team is as dumb as he is. If anything gambling sharpens looking at all the teams we play with clear eyes and avoiding the fucking idiotic takes from last week like “this teams ceiling is 9-3”. Uh, not it’s not dipshit, teams play other teams and we are better than every team on our schedule right now. I have one season bet with Doc OU and that’s that we go 10-2 or 11-1 and are favored every game. As I made abundantly clear our schedule sucks and I fully expect to go 10-2 or 11-1 and make the playoffs and probably lose in the quarters or semis when we play a team that takes advantage of us beating ourselves. I thought this team was going to be national title good. It’s early and we still might get there, but it’s not particularly close right now and won’t get there unless and until arch plays like a 1/1 kind of guy.
  16. My perfect batting order with everyone available (against RHP) Peña, Paredes, Correa, Yordan, Sanchez, Altuve, Walker, Diaz, Meyers. bam, that’s it. Sanchez in the 5 spot is a bit weak, but that makes 6-9 better than its counterpart.
  17. Or tomorrow probably not Tuesday either.
  18. Dumb penalties, fumbles, dumb decisions stopping ourselves, goal line problems, 3-12 on 3rd downs. The list is long and impressive (like my Johnson). We can get better. We need to. the hoopleheads who call 9-3 our ceiling don’t understand the ineptitude on the rest of our schedule. I thought we had a fair shot at winning the national title this year- this doesn’t look like a teams that can put together 3 or 4 quality game in a row without self-sabotage to get to that standard. Which is the only thing worth considering at this point in our program cycle.
  19. Hello darkness my old friend…. well, after not being concerned after a week 1 loss I’m despondent after a 5 score win. Everything that could be glossed over by Arch being wildly inaccurate in week 1 and opening game jitters and playing a blue blood and blah blah blah was there in Week 2. The old saw says you will never see more improvement than between week 1 and 2 is often accurate and if that’s true of this Texas team then we are not good enough. The rest of our schedule and the SEC in general sucks. I’m still comfortable with my $1000 bet that we will go 10-2 or 11-1 and be favored in all our games (except maybe slight dog at UGA who also has plenty of their own problems) but this team fails in the pass fail standard. they better get a whole lot better throughout the year. First chance is next week against UTEP. Scoreboard doesn’t matter- play to a standard that doesn’t suck.
  20. Sub Paredes for Caratini and our by far best offensive playoff lineup designed to score 1 run.
  21. He needs to be more than fine. He needs to be the elevator and that doesn’t look good right now.
  22. We suck. so does aggy. so does gator. so does OU. so does arky. so do Kentucky and Vandy so does Clemson. so does bama. but yeah/ Arch needed to be good to elevate this offense and apparently he isn’t.
  23. Maybe. Maybe there’s some hedge as well thinking we could see a bit of a surprise 50 point cut. I personally think they are still too restrictive by 150-200 basis points but I’m a contrarian by nature, who knows. I follow the macro but trying to time up policy or market moves in the extreme short term is a fools errand. Like trying to time any market be it stock, housing etc. I have so many problems with how my industry has been run the last 2.5 years from a facing the customer perspective that it makes me sort of ragey in a purely autistic kind of way where something doesn’t affect me but it bothers me bc it’s not being done right. do you know that when rates where in the 7’s 80% of the market was buying points? That’s literally fucking insane. Buying points at the height of the market when you are most likely at any time ever to be refinancing shortly into the future? it’s like the morons who were putting people on arms during Covid… really? You want to make it so your rate can get worse than 2.75%? there’s nothing in this game that’s more important than the break even time. Get that break even below 6 months (0 is better, having money out in your pocket is even better than that) and don’t get greedy and take money off the table (for free) every time rates drop. this was actually a fuller answer to gator’s question
  24. This is why I structure everything for all bills paid when rates are higher. So they can jump and take the win now and do it again in 6 months. My suggestion is not to hunt bottom until you get into 30’s with a 4 handle. Personally I have 37 loans on the books right now for September and expect to add 15 more. That’s after closing 19 in August. I expect to be the #1 or 2 volume LO in texas in the broker channel for the month. We shall see. My clients response that have worked with me in the past is trust, because we’ve planned this strategy for a year or two with lender paid buy downs, lots of closing cost money from me and other stuff. people who get referred to me have a response of “why doesn’t everyone do this?” Well, bc the typical customer doesn’t understand the business so they ask exactly one question “what’s your rate?” So the vast majority of LO’s become stupid rate monkeys that don’t listen to their customers lives and plan strategy accordingly.
  25. Should be about it for major moves. we are now 99% baked in on rate cut(s).
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