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swraith

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by swraith

  1. Houston gets off easy. Everybody else is truly fucked. I can’t see my kids/grandkids living in TX if that climate comes true.
  2. I got into GE way to early. Thinking about doubling down just to get my average purchase price lower. Appears I am going to own some AAPL at 190. I had previously sold puts at that level thinking it would hold above that line. In my day job I am long lots of natural gas calls for this winter. So yeah doing great at work in commodities, but equity personal account is sucking shit through a straw.
  3. Zero chance Trump resigns. Trump will be the 2020 GOP nominee. Trump isn’t going to let little issues like a journalist being murdered slow down his messaging. Dems need to remain focused on big issues. Healthcare. Jobs (for those not benefiting from current economy). Jobs if the broader economy goes into recession prior to 2020. Dems in the House can investigate/impeach Trump, but not to the exclusion of the above messaging. Because Brisket is on point. Senate is not going to convict Trump. Wishing for that is a waste of time. Score the political points needed via the House investigating him but recognize there there is no coup de grace.
  4. I won’t believe Sanders or Kelly is living until the WH officially announces it. Particularly Sanders. Media speculation on her in the past has been proven incorrect.
  5. I think Trump runs again in 2020 and wins the GOP primary with ease. No idea who the Dem candidate will be. Based on a generic Dem candidate, this is the baseline I would start with. Not a lot of margin for the Dems to fuck around, which is depressing.
  6. Trying to convince the trumpkins of anything is a waste of time/resources. Besides, I would prefer they remain oblivious to any shifting sands beneath the political landscape.
  7. swraith

    Caravan

    Trump will stop talking about caravans now that the election is over? Can we cancel the military deployment to the border ?
  8. Trump is not going to prison, at least prior to 2020.
  9. He is running. No reason to think he won’t win the nomination again.
  10. This shouldn’t be a surprise. Trump has the Senate he needs to confirm replacement cabinet members.
  11. Dems gained House seats. No disagreement. But Dems are going to need a candidate that can counter weight Trumpism in 2020. I would have felt a lot more confident in the Dems 2020 chances for the Presidency if we had seen some of these big statewide races go to the left. It would have made the path to defeating Trump look easier after tonight. However, it appears Dems still have a lot of hard work in front of them. The wrong candidate in 2020 could leave the US stuck with Trump for an additional 4 years which I was hoping would be inconceivable after tonight.
  12. 2016 proved popular vote doesn’t matter. Electoral college count is what matters in Presidential race. Florida still looking very red. TX looking very red. Dems have to find a path that leads them to EC victory in 2020 vs Trump. It’s not clear that tonight has revealed that strategy.
  13. Still appears that Trump has major appeal in statewide races. Tonight appears to be an indicator that Trumpism will still be very much alive and thriving in 2020.
  14. I don’t see the purple. The statewide races appear to all still be Republican winners. Hard to imagine 2020 being better for Democrats with it being a Presidential election.
  15. Beto did well but just a bit short apparently.
  16. Kobach going down in Kansas is a surprise.
  17. Voted this afternoon at Shriner building in Austin. No wait. Took longer to vote then get the access code.
  18. I don’t get out of Austin much, but had to go up to Georgetown yesterday. Saw 3 Cruz yard signs in one small neighborhood. 0 Beto signs in said neighborhood.
  19. This right here. Dems need to stay hyper focused on their healthcare message.
  20. SPX down 94 at the close. That will leave a skid mark.
  21. Being a climate scientist today must be incredibly depressing.
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