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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. I agree that it has but that’s on sales price, not so much on value. If you have a $700k loan and bought in 2019 you likely have a 3% or better rate and there’s just no way you’re going to spend twice that (plus more on taxes) to upgrade unless you REALLY need to. Removing these transactions has skewed the sales price numbers. Appraisers are still finding comps at higher prices, they just have to do more legwork and can’t depend on 5 recent sales in a 1 miles radius. This was very well put, but it’s not purely out of deference to the buyer or so they don’t get yelled at-it’s because we are depending on the market to fundamentally answer this question of value and the price reached is the best evidence of it.
  2. Thanks, I’ve now spent the past two hours making stupid videos and texting them out.
  3. I think it’s pretty clear the whole “we’ve got intelligence on what you’re about to do” is to act as a deterrent. I think I’m done fucking around with Iran. The revolution has burnt itself out and they are essentially Russia but with more religion and melanin. They’ll persist as an autocratic petrostate trying to export insurgencies as long as we allow it.
  4. Not to pick on you but this is the kind of thing that points out our bullshit. #1 has been healthy for one season out of the last three, 4 isn’t expected back until after the all-star break and isn’t reliable regardless, 5 isn’t expected back until after the all-star break and he’s still trying to establish himself, 6 was a spring training injury but before Montgomery signed (and has done nothing to think he’s an adequate replacement for a 1-3 starter). Everyone below that is varying degrees of risk but certainly not dependable for a WS contender. The problem isn’t the injuries, the problem is the plan for mitigating the performance loss was fucking regarded.
  5. Just checked in and saw the score. This unfortunately isn’t fair but sports is a performance business and running out this rotation is fireable, particularly when you could have signed Snell or Montgomery and all it cost was money.
  6. It sounds like what you’re saying is that he’s been coached to commit at least one penalty per game, either offsides, unnecessary roughness, horse collar tackle, etc.
  7. Man, it’s looking like pretty much every move Brown made this off-season besides Caratini has blown up.* *Hader I’m fully crediting to Crane.
  8. Wonderful, according to TCAD our property value has increased 29% from when we purchased 12/21. That's definitely supportable based on market data...
  9. I don’t know if we got lucky there but it did mitigate some of the remarkable damage from the Westbrook trade. That might go down in the annals of Rocket lore as the worst trade ever and we still haven’t fully realized the punishment.
  10. I like him, I think he asks obvious questions and it's around performance. It's not Jose de Jesus Ortiz (want some manufactured drama?), McTaggart (I can only hint around stuff because I might piss off the team) or Richard Justice (you guys like Rick Reilly, right? How about a local version?), so maybe my standards are low.
  11. I don't want purport that I'm some master salesmen but I've had a lot of training and trained up a team of my own and I'd like to think they were pretty good at executing my vision. A sales coach will rebut that pricing with "sell them service". I have tried all kinds of different scripting and I bet it works about 10% of the time, and we have basically built our entire business on supporting a service model over pricing. I've even table-set by saying "this should be very competitive pricing but if you find something better let's chat on it.", in the hopes of getting a chance to match. I'm sure you did that, too, because the borrower told you about it and didn't ghost you. CSB: I lost a deal two years ago that still stings--jumbo, I connected well with the borrower, he's a new dad (same as me at the time), sent him a Berenstein bears book after our initial phone call, etc. He's talking to me and the highest production team in Austin (his agent referred both of us) and I loved competing against them because I respected them (they didn't make promises they couldn't keep). Anyway, our pricing is very similar and they cut him a deal that I could match but their LO got their first, and he gave them a verbal commitment. I didn't have any more margin left to give up and couldn't do much but sell him on service after that loan closed, which didn't work work (probably doesn't help that by that point I usually feel like I'm begging). Fast forward a few months and our bank is appearing insolvent, my partner and I are looking for a place to land and we've got two options under consideration--a bank that's been purchased by some of our former peers and promises no LLPA's, at least on investment properties (which at the time, a lot of our investors were California engineers, southeast Asian or Asian, and ruthless shoppers, so it's be cheapest or lose the business) and the Austin IMB that we lost that jumbo deal to. We're interviewing/being interviewed by the bank president/owner and I brought up that loan (which was originated by his most accomplished LO on his team) and he said "Yup, I'll tell you a secret about her--she's very transactional.", i.e., she understood that bottom-line, if you find yourself competing on price don't fuck around, get to the LOWEST you can stomach right off the bat. Win it or lose it and move on. I can get way too precious about trying to maximize profit and it's a bad strategy in that particular contest. Back to you, I'm sure doing this already but don't forget to sell him the refinance, but you're going to have to match the rate and maybe beat it.
  12. I know Chandler Rome isn’t one to hold his fire but his Athletic article this morning was SCATHING. One of the idiot commenters brought up signing Greinke and that’s not the worst idea I’ve seen-at this point, a starter who only gives up a run per inning is an improvement.
  13. I know this is all conjecture but I don’t want to lose lineman, particularly those that are more obviously projects. I can’t imagine a Cojoe or Kirkland saw the recruiting class ahead of them and thought “maybe I can play as a freshman or sophomore ” so any departure on their part is (hopefully) program driven.
  14. This--I'll add for the rest of you low-information council watchers, note how much less you've heard from everyone else over the past year, including Fitlump. One of the best uses of the mayor's office is to use the additional prestige and resources of the position to herd the cats in a single direction.
  15. Obviously hard to tell distance from the footage but hitting a moving target with a pistol isn’t a piece of cake.
  16. I’m in the “Bauer can rot” camp but getting swept by the Royals in such pathetic fashion is pretty bad for team chemistry, too.
  17. I wonder if Dana might be better for a rebuilding team. I think I’m stealing this from @Wulaw Horn but maybe he’s not a war-time consigliere.
  18. He’s a 37 year old ball player and that’s in Cubano years-I don’t think expecting bat speed declines is indicative of any particular insight. The problem is the aging curve hasn’t been a curve, it’s been a cliff. We would be fine with Joey Vitro’s age 36-37 seasons (cherry picking here because Votto was terrible at 38). As far as overall run production, I have suspicion we’re going to look back at last year and this year’s team and see positives in run scoring but I feel the lineup construction lacks the ability to generate runs easily that maybe a more contact oriented team could produce. We seem to be very feast or famine.
  19. 1. This is my own fault, but I’ve been reading the comments in The Athletic and you just described every teams’ fans. 2. I also think Houston fans, in general, have some entitlement to generational trauma from 30 years of getting SO close but not winning a championship until the Rockets in 94. The Oilers, in particular, are mostly to blame but also fuck the Mets, fuck Kevin Brown, fuck cocaine and the Celtics (frankly fuck Boston), etc.
  20. That's a really good catch--I like that idea better than it's a computer simulation.
  21. What’s high end? I definitely think the $1m-$1.5m market in Austin is struggling. It’s better at $2m plus because they are more rare immune. Most of the mid-level inventory I see in Austin is moving as long as the seller isn’t greedy.
  22. Loperfido is 25 already--I don't think there are any service time manipulation considerations. He's not on the Kyle Tucker career path. I think it's more likely they see that last year he had his first taste of AAA but only played 32 games there and had contact issues. He's pretty clearly trying to lift the ball more (as a senior sign they likely re-worked his swing) and he's really only had two years in the minors. Getting a few more games in at AAA gives him more time to face pitching he couldn't hit last year, more time to evaluate whether Abreu is fully cooked or just mostly cooked, etc. If they do sign Belt it probably correlates with their evaluation of Loperfido's readiness.
  23. My prediction is they want to get Loperfido 25 games or so in AAA and then make a decision. There’s a pretty good chance he’s better than Belt going forward and has more defensive versatility.
  24. I’ll tell you one other thing they still do-they remind (or don’t have to) the families of African Americans players that they integrated before UT* and African American cultural groups occupy a key part of campus life in way they just don’t at UT. I don’t think it’s even based on number of students, but it’s a factor for AA families from north Texas. *I actually think they officially desegregated around the same time but UT didn’t make much effort to make AA feel welcome and it might just be a historical accident they found a home at OU and they had kind of a first to market advantage. All of this is far less surprising, to me, than anyone from that community looking at A&M and thinking “this place feels welcoming.”
  25. I think mine was Avatar in 3D but this one is pretty great. Pretty much the only film I’ve ever seen at the Bullock IMAX and hated was Rise of Skywalker.
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