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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. Well, the evidence is that the Democratic brand is so tarnished there an independent does better, so I’m not sure what underpins @chainsaw’s faith here.
  2. Holy shit, Ted was there? I bet he didn't arrive until the 4th quarter.
  3. It's even more noticeable in Fairy Tale, which he tries to resolve by writing that the lead character is a bit of an old soul and enjoys boomer media. I'm waiting for the next book in which he tries to update his "gee whiz" 1950's vernacular to modern times by having the kids repeat "6, 7" incessantly.
  4. This concept is getting lots of play on the lefty podcast circuit, but culture leads politics. Voters aren't rejecting left policy preferences; they've rejected the messengers in contested spaces.
  5. LCHorn

    Mad Men

    Counterpoint--that look Sally and Don exchange in this scene is in my small handful of favorite moments and I love it even more now that I'm a dad with similar age kids (this whole episode is just replete with payoff character moments and it's SO satisfying).
  6. This--to @956 Worldwide point, the constant talk about this as a conflict between center-left and left is the wrong way to look at it. It's a contest between generations and their comfort in communications mediums, not ideology. Mamdani's platform isn't winning a Senate race in Nebraska and the next version of a successful Democratic party needs to have space for both visions.
  7. Your question might have been rhetorical, but I'm held hostage in an online, recorded CE program and can't do much but listen and click "I'm still here" every five minutes so I'll indulge ( @Wulaw Horn and @UTPhil2006 laugh to themselves and say "you idiot, take an in-person class and it'll be over in 5 hours"). Anyway, maybe they did? You can look up the address on TCAD and see if they have an authorized agent representing them under the account section (top left), which would be evidence of a protest. Property condition supported protests are the low hanging fruit once a protest is past the county and in the hands of the ARB. If you hit them with a spreadsheet of values their eyes will glaze over, but those civic minded senior volunteers love pictures.
  8. Maybe--listing agents promoting mysterious competing offers is up there with "I've kissed a girl! It was at summer camp, no you don't know her."
  9. I like Simon, too, but I also think how we're managing the position needs an upgrade. A ton of NIL money is getting devoted to top high school backs and it's probably the most misspent position on the field, relative to production.
  10. I've actually quizzed TCAD appraisers and outside appraisers who argue on behalf of commercial clients to TCAD on this and there's a general skepticism outside of TCAD's office on any consistent methodology produced by a mass appraisal. If you follow values, you might expect to see (based on MSA appraisal data) 5% or so annual unimproved value increases in the years 2014-2019 (I usually cite those because they were the most recent before the pandemic disrupted the market) and declining improvement values to reflect age related depreciation* (you wouldn't expect to see that on every property, but that would represent the mean outcome). Anyway, that's not what you'll see--land values jump around, sometimes they adjust downward, then increase the improvements value, sometimes both go up, sometimes both go down (a lot of that in the last year). You are correct, however, in that scarcity of comparable sales leads to a lot of distorted "market" valuations. *somewhat in defense of this, improvement value doesn't linearly do anything--it might depreciate based on age, or increase based on replacement cost factors.
  11. I wrote a "how to protest your taxes guide" I teach to realtors for advising their buyers. TCAD values, particularly on higher value properties, aren't all that accurate using commonly understood appraisal practices, but are a crude estimate based on a mass appraisal software. I don't know they are truly useful as a measure of real property value (and to be fair, they are only loosely trying to be). I get your point, however. I'm sure the builder is wondering why his agent can't get him $2.5m.
  12. Both of those dudes are starters for their team and they are going to be paid to be retained. If you want to grab a RB you need to look at the Big 12 or the ACC and look for someone who wants a higher profile going into their draft year.
  13. I mean, it's pretty gorgeous. I feel bad for the builder; just being on the market for six months sucks and he's been making fairly modest price reductions (I'm sure his agent is affirming that it's priced right for the market and can't believe it's not getting more traction). You just don't get this aggressive if solvency isn't an issue.
  14. Same here-I’m not interested in investing in an undeveloped lot. Sell me how you’re going to convert that to money.
  15. Does a dude who played less than 60 minutes for Texas even count as a former Horn?
  16. Sounds like being an AE for a beer and wine distributor. I did a home loan for a guy who said of his profession “you’ll never make a million dollars, but you’ll get to live like you make a million.”
  17. What’s the address? I’m prepared to go over asking up $995,010.
  18. I bet it’s the starting price and they are trying to auction it. There was one in the Austin Country Club that did that earlier in the year and got national media attention because it appeared the sales price had been reduced from $6m to $2m or something.
  19. You, of all people, should know the rules here….
  20. There’s definitely a dearth of demand at certain prices. I’ve got a former colleague that did very well on a flip in 2023 and just let the bank take back his subsequent $2.5 m Westlake flip because he’s been unable to sell it for two years. His thinking was that Westlake real estate should have more a demand floor because of the location premium, and that buyers in that price range would be more immune from job or recession concerns.
  21. Bearing in mind I’m kind of a snob, this never proved true in my youth in Liberty, Chambers, and east Harris county*. I feel like there’s a nostalgia for that @Brisketexan has perpetuated here that doesn’t stand up to reality. And let’s be honest, hungry oil field workers aren’t known for being discerning in their food, whiskey or women. *admittedly that’s not South Louisiana but it’s plenty coonass, nonetheless.
  22. I know everyone wants Schumer and Jeffries to be something they are not, but it’s pretty clear that the next version of the Democratic Party (I.e., the one that can win two elections in a row) is going to be fronted by different leadership. I hate quoting him as much as I do, but @Bozo_Casanova has said (and this is going to be to his chagrin, but Ezra Klein just said this, too) that the candidate changes the party, not the other way around and I think that’s a better road map for what comes next than to continually be disappointed that Schumer isn’t a wartime consigliere. @wildcat09I know you’re out on Platner, but he’s so much better as a template candidate than trying to run 72 year old Sherrod Brown again or 77 year old Janet Mills.
  23. Maybe? He was hired in August and that tweet (errrr., bluesky post) is an even more catty bitch move than insisting you be recognized as the third of your name. I realize it’s politics, but Occam’s razor would suggest it’s more performance related and framing it otherwise is so his career isn’t hindered after prematurely jumping off the Swanson for MI Gov campaign.
  24. Maybe, but a healthy org should be seeing junior management hired by other orgs in roles that represent promotions. I know they are only starting the process of bringing in candidates for these bench and GM/scouting openings, but it’ll be interesting to see if they promote from within and/or which orgs do they hire from (in other words, a lot of comfort hire Atlanta guys might be nothing, might be a red flag). I think there’s been some atrophy in scouting and coaching so new blood (outside hire) here would be preferable, imo.
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