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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. The most likely support is with tax credits and I’m very skeptical there’s consensus support for that in the House. Reps like Massie and our very own Chip Roy also appear sufficiently ideological that the transactional give and take of lawmaking is going to be, best case, slow. It’s not that it can’t be done, it’s that it’s going to be subordinate to a tax cut, which will likely require wringing every bit of outstanding political capital before 2026 campaigning begins. Moreover, the tax cut it’s likely going to be unpopular (like the last one was). None of this is particularly hard for the investor to imagine. So what’s the magical thinking that supports 100+ price/earnings? Patents? The Mar-a-Lago accords? I’m a little surprised the whole market isn’t piling into shorts because narratively it just seems to follow the historical pattern of a founder/CEO thinking they are special and not lucky.
  2. Not to entirely change the subject, but what’s the argument against shorting TSLA? That investors have already baked in potential revenue loss from fleeing US/Euro buyers?
  3. I will happily take Lamar and 40 traffic lights to avoid 35.
  4. I would go to Justine’s or Birdie’s. Neither take reservations (for two, anyway) so you may have a wait but at least you’re guaranteed to get in. Also, the wait is usually part of the appeal. At Justine’s you can drink Sazeracs and play Pétanque, for example.
  5. To be fair, Texas being allowed to throw its financial weight around in a manner it would not previously (with NIL) is probably half the story. It also helps that OU has finally hit a rough patch. In regard to bringing it back to basketball, if Sean Miller can effectively deploy NIL so that donors feel like they are getting value (like they are with football), it’ll go a long way towards building the kind of floor we need before we start dreaming on Final Fours.
  6. I know you weirdos liked the trailer set to rock music or whatever but this one is so much better.
  7. Nah, there’s plenty of meat without fabrication. If someone is checking my posting history they are going to have a deep sigh over yet another of my “I heard this on the Pivot podcast” recaps, but Scott Galloway’s quick and dirty analysis on the 2024 POTUS loss is that a lot of parents were seeing the impact of social media on the lives of their children and that heavily weighed into a vote for change. His quote was something to the effect of “social scientists 50 years from now are going to be shocked that we built software that so consistently delivers depression, increases the suicide rate of those who use it, allows rampant lies to be spread unchecked, including by automated bots and foreign actors who we know are antagonistic towards US interests, and the only, small effort to decency and good sense comes at the whim of billionaires who have no inner compass beyond profit.” Honestly, the beauty of 2025-2026 is you don’t have to make it about GM, or DuPont, PG&E, etc., these large corporations with boards and cogs and CEO’s in the shadows. You can make it about Zuck, and Elon, and two of the most punchable faces in America.
  8. Too amorphous and survey results indicate most people like technology companies more than people leading them. People like Tesla and Instagram but are wary of Musk and Zuckerberg. The other part that’s hard to square is, in general, surveys favor less regulation than more (on the companies themselves). You’re better off making billionaires the villain. My only qualm there is this has been a public issues for Dems since the 90’s at least and the fact it doesn’t resonate more might mean a) all the juice has been wrung out or b) it only works if you have someone really awesome selling it. That said, at least you’re trying an economic message, and the Dems HAVE to get back to pulling in a fair share of the working class.
  9. We are in Mexico for spring break and our captain on United referred to it as the Gulf of America. Curious whether that’s an instruction from management.
  10. I think everyone in the policy space (that I read anyway) is mostly focused on the supply mix and zoning. There’s an obvious way forward and that’s current homeowners not getting overly precious about higher density being built nearby.
  11. @Brisketexan, I think you're in District 10, too--Marc Duchen will tell you that managing fire risk is one of his one or two main priorities. I'm on 1.67 acres, most of it sloping steeply to the rear of the property and I've got several more years of weekend log cutting to get all the downed ash junipers and such from the 2022 freeze. Plus, part of the property includes the drainage for cul del sac so there's years of leaf debris that's been deposited into the valley. I'm a prime candidate for
  12. I like that they are going down (and this is perhaps impacted by the fact I'm hypersensitive to mortgage related news breaking), but media companies pretty much run with a "lowest/highest rate since x" every day and it's all rather meaningless to help contextualize the real question of "what does this mean for me?" Aside from about 48 hours in September 2024, rates have been bouncing around the same range since 2023.
  13. I’m sure you already know this, but the ethics or justice of it don’t matter if you don’t have public opinion, and the GOP has made sure this (and probably anything civil rights related) is tied up in a general rejection of the lefts assertion over cultural issues. I get the whole “this is super important to me and my community and we should fight for it”, but right now it’s going to drag down candidates that would otherwise be good allies for the other 99% of issues that community generally supports. I’m sure this will feed into the anxiety many in the LGBTQ community already feel, but you’re going to see more of this as the ‘28 potentials start trying create something that’ll ignite some grass roots energy.
  14. I don’t think admitting there’s some sincerity in the electorate about their feelings in regards to trans participation in female sports is throwing the entire group under the bus. I know the LGBTQ community feels very under threat, but if they are going to make Dems die on that hill then they might as well join MAGA.
  15. I have a suspicion that this action (using the loan to support the purchase price) is far less profitable for them than you would think.
  16. Maybe? I tend to think the electorate’s disfunction has bled into leadership rather than the other way around (not trying to both sides, this is clearly more of a GOP problem. That said, the Dems went after a big tent and the sub-groups aren’t aligned anymore). I do think Trump is almost the perfect embodiment and has the resume for an electorate addicted to the sugar high of trolling and outrage. My one source of hope over the short-term is no one else seems able to corral his constituency.
  17. Fact checks don’t change minds anymore. This-it’s not a popular opinion but we’re suffering from too much democracy in an information environment that’s too dispersed for most normal media consumers to critically work through and analyze every new piece of information. This fracturing of attention makes capturing any block of voter’s attention paramount, and by any means necessary. It sort of begets a Fox News, which before it went bananas was still sensationalistic instead of going for credible. Big media on the left are struggling with the same challenge (how to compete with social media), and are/have adopted similar strategies (for example, the NT TImes website ran nine articles in on their page the other day about “Trump bad”, and the 10th was about Dr. Pimple Popper). All of this, of course, feeds into the distrust of institutions generally which is just fucking terrible for running a democracy. The biggest long-term problem is, in my opinion, the lurch from GOP to DEM every election that I’d expect from citizen unrest (because the media environment has created a “whoever is in power sucks” malaise among the slice of the electorate that decides non-gerrymandered elections). I don’t know what the solution is, either, aside from some kind of armistice between parties that lets them carve up power so that less partisan candidates candidates can be successful.
  18. I don’t see what Redfin has to offer in a consumer environment in which EVERY agent is customizing their own comp. Also, surprised Rocket has free cash and an appetite to spend it in this environment. They are making a bet that refinance revenue will pick up, I’m sure.
  19. It started with Perry, but the Governor not moving up or out delays everything. It doesn’t help that Perry and Abbot are too narcissistic to think anything other than POTUS is worth their post-governor aspirations.
  20. @Wulaw Horn jinxed us. Just got hit with a pricing change as of five minutes ago on a loan I was trying to lock.
  21. Kara Swisher brought this up on the same podcast with Scott Galloway--investing in the big tech firms, because so much of their revenue is generated internationally, is basically a way to keep money here but diversity into foreign markets.
  22. FWIW, Scott Galloway is following this approach.
  23. Let’s be real clear that Mayes was a Plan 2 Honors Fiji and knows better. He’s essentially purchased himself a position within the GOP with inherited oil money and has figured out that pandering to the lowest intellect voters is good business (and so far has been proven correct). You don’t get in front of this except as a sop to west Texas billionaire partisans that you’re someone worth investing in as Abbott and Patrick move on.
  24. In Austin, an 80-20 (agent-broker) split is common at the big brokerages. I'd expect agents like Cord Shiflet or Kumara Wilcoxon that self-source their own business get a better split. 70-30 is more typical of newer agents or in the KW pyramid scheme (and in the latter it can be worse). Nobody is policing that (or declaring it). I mean, let's be honest, POTUS has a crypto meme coin. We're basically without financial regulation or compliance obligations for the next four years.
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