
statsman
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I don’t know, so much, that “we” includes the U.S., anymore Three years ago, Russia was in a similar position to NATO, with respect to artillery production. As their initial schitzkrieg stalled, and the war settled into its current form, they also realized they needed more shells. Like Ukraine, they scrounged for shells from partners and used up stores. They also committed to production expansion. Now, Russia has all the shells they need, as inaccurate and unreliable as they are. As Stalin said, “Quantity has a quality of its own”. NATO/ the west/the U.S. could have matches (and exceeded!) Russia. Look at this list of ranked economies: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) Russia has the 11th largest. I count five NATO nations with larger economies, individually. The reason that Ukraine’s allies aren’t giving more shells to Ukraine is not that they aren’t capable. It is that they prioritized other things higher. Russia can win this. If Ukraine’s allies continue to twiddle their thumbs and look at each other to take the lead, the Ukrainian defenses can collapse. If that happens, you will see a flood of refugees. Russia’s economy is a mess- high inflation, collapsing currency, high interest rates. Funny fact- Germany’s economy was similar in 1938: with the economic growth from rearmament stalling out, there were too many marks chasing too few goods (industry was hindered by troop mobilization). Taking Czechoslovakia solved the German economic problems; now there were plenty of good for the marks to purchase. The same thing can save Russia’s economy. The “west” better decide tout suite if that kind of future is unbearable. The time for doing something about it is almost past.
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In 1941, before Pearl Harbor, the U.S. realized it needed bombers, lots of them. It signed a contract with Convair to buy as many B-24’s as they could build, 39 per month. As the U.S. entered the war, it realized it needed more, so Convair doubled production by building a new plant in Fort Worth (that’s why locals of a certain age still call it “the Bomber Plant”, even though it has built fighters for almost 60 years). Knowing that still wouldn’t be enough, the Army signed Ford to build bombers in their Willow Run plant (war time rationing pretty much starved civilian car production). The Convair engineers struggled to conceive of higher rate production, while Ford engineers struggled to imagine production as slow as a bomber per day. By the spring of 1944, 2.5 years after Pearl Harbor, Willow Run was completing one B-24 per hour, 24 hours per day, seven days per week. Each B-24 weighed 18 tons, empty, had four engines and tens of thousands of hand bucked rivets. That was 80 years ago. This year, we are about to see a different kind of motivated development program, as the U.S. takes on the AI challenge from China. We have seen Lunar missions planned and executed in 10 years. We have seen a vaccine to a novel virus developed in eight months. Maybe I don’t know what I’m talking about (but I think I do). It wasn’t funding that kept the U.S. (or the UK, or Germany or France) from matching Russia in artillery shell production (remember- the Russkis had to ramp up to their current level). It was funding and commitment.
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Same answer as 2.5 years ago: when Ukraine has as many (better- more) artillery shells as the Russians have. The U.S. has the industrial capacity to produce that many, but it would require a financial commitment. Europe has the industrial capacity as well, but that would require a financial commitment. There are political reasons that one of Ukraine’s backers have stepped up, basically domestic butter prioritized over Ukraine guns. Politicians are really good at explaining why something is someone else’s responsibility. Also- the major European national governments all seem near collapse and are walking a fine line. I think their calculations are wrong. Know what’s going to cost more than arming Ukraine at a higher level than Russia? Defense costs if the Ukrainian defense collapses and Russia breaks through. If that happens, there will be millions of Ukrainian refugees (the Ukrainians know what Russia does- they rape the women, shoot the men and send the children east). With Russia farther west, the Euros will be forced to increase annual defense higher than a measly 2% of GDP.
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"Saturday Night" - movie about 1975 SNL
statsman replied to Chuckie Finster's topic in Movies and TV
Yes, even that “gentle soul” David Bowie had a 13 year old fuck buddy in LA. You can’t say “it was the ‘70s”. I was alive back then and k ew it was wrong. -
Dallas Cowboys 2024 Season Thread -- Jerrah the Asshat Rides Again
statsman replied to Patrick Bateman's topic in Football
Game respects game. The players respect Jones’ ability to get out of the house and chase strange at an advanced age. That’s all. -
"Saturday Night" - movie about 1975 SNL
statsman replied to Chuckie Finster's topic in Movies and TV
I have a 15 year old daughter. I don’t trust 15 year old boys, and my level of distrust rises exponentially with the age of any suitor. -
"Saturday Night" - movie about 1975 SNL
statsman replied to Chuckie Finster's topic in Movies and TV
Yes, it’s often the case that 20 year old men are romantically interested in 14 year old girls because they are looking for a soulful meeting of minds. -
"Saturday Night" - movie about 1975 SNL
statsman replied to Chuckie Finster's topic in Movies and TV
Well, she was in junior high school when they met. He had graduated HS. -
"Saturday Night" - movie about 1975 SNL
statsman replied to Chuckie Finster's topic in Movies and TV
I was in junior high. We’d stay up late (11:30 in Georgia’s time zone) and watch, and then I’d rehash it with buddies in home room on Monday. WRT Shuster- she explains the Michaels relationship, which the Wiki bio details just make sound more creepy. Lorne Nichaels is six years older, and she was 17 when they married. He was a 20 year old dating a 14 year old. -
Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
statsman replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
It is so incredible: -their basketball team blew a 22 point lead, and… -what really has them upset is a comment from an announcer. -
Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
statsman replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
They are so precious. The TV announcer said nice things about the home team in a college basketball game. Like all announcers do about all home teams in all college basketball games. Including A&M’s. And they are convinced that the nice things said at their home games are the truest of true, and things said when the Ags on the road, about the home team, are insidious comments designed to hurt the Ags. -
Mack Brown Tarheel Football: The Orange Slice Boogaloo
statsman replied to Machinator's topic in Football
Jamail was Mack’s lawyer, a huge donor to the university and, yes, he insisted on better terms for Mack than his contract called for. -
Mack Brown Tarheel Football: The Orange Slice Boogaloo
statsman replied to Machinator's topic in Football
I’m repeating an earlier post, but here goes: Darrell Royal was encouraged to retire. He accepted the emeritus position after UT hired his successor at HC and AD without listening to input from DKR. Yet, over the next three plus decades, Royal worked as needed to help UT (the school even more than the football program). Several university presidents remarked on how delighted they were that Royal was never working his own agenda, and only offering input when asked. Brown’s collapse as an effective HC happened at a bad time for the university. Perry was trying to transform UT much as he was doing to TAMU. Powers, the president, was in a tough spot, trying to keep his position while not acceding to the governor’s (and the most recent Perry selected regents, some of whom were booster of other schools) demands. Instead of working with Powers, or even staying out of the political squabbling, Brown actually took advantage of the bickering to try to leverage more time. It damn near worked. That’s the problem with Brown. We know how he sees his importance with respect to the program and the school. We know what he will do and sacrifice to advance his personal interests. He has shown us. Sure, the program is in a good spot, now. Sure, a place can be made for Brown. But, what if things change? What if there is a rough patch or a big issue? Do we want Mack Brown, with all his interpersonal skills and connections connected to the program, helping with decisions? Even if he could be managed, is it worth the effort? What does Texas get from this attachment?- 3808 replies
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Sagarin’s routine assigns ratings based on a least squares evaluation of games played. I looked at your schedule, and expected to see some real ass whipping in the ISU losses, but there really weren’t any (B12 CG came closes). Then, I expected to see that KSU had a tougher schedule, but, per Sagarin, they had a slightly easier schedule. So, I don’t know.
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Final Sagarin’s are in. http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm Top B12 team is ASU (#13), then BYU at 18 and KSU at 27. Sagarin notes how teams do against his top 10 and top 30. Two B12 teams played as much as one game against a final Sagarin top 10 team- ASU (Texas, in Peach Bowl) and WVU (against PSU).
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Isn’t Les Wexner (Victoria Secrets and others, and big buddy of Jeff Epstein) a big Buckeye NIL funder? https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/25/business/jeffrey-epstein-wexner-victorias-secret.html
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I keep coming back to- how can they be so cheap with the victims’ families, and then build a memorial to the victims? I can get the idea that they are supposed to be tight fisted with the university funding; but then to spend on a “look at me and how special I am” display? It’s like they really don’t care about anything substantive, and only the window dressing.
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I thought they capped their payment at $50k each, but it turns out the families sued and got a little more: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/wbna27422100 What is $2.1 M, less attorney fees, divided by 12? I’m pretty sure the Ags paid more for the memorial to the collapse.
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TAMU used sovereign immunity to avoid paying damages to the victims’ families.
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I’m a right wing reactionary (no Cloak Room), and I still get very annoyed by Clay Travis. (but thanks for the info!)
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I think the key detail is “daughters”. There were probably some tears as they convinced their father that they really needed and deserved it. Of course, he’s a shitheel for changing an agreement with his wife without telling her.
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Is he asking $5M per year? Or $5M spread over the remaining two years he will be in “college”? aLincoln?
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Have You Ever W2'ed $1,000,000 in a single year?
statsman replied to Vegas64's topic in Business and Markets
No, afraid not. -
Found it- https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/hes-70-and-fairly-wealthy-i-met-the-love-of-my-life-three-years-ago-how-do-i-politely-ask-that-he-include-me-in-his-will-ddaa3ef6
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The story repeats time and again, because the fundamentals are ubiquitous- people are intensely attuned to their own needs. Elderly women, more than men, are acutely focused on “how will I be taken care of?” I wish I could find the link, but one of the newsfeeds pushed at work had a financial advice column where an aged woman wrote that her similarly aged boyfriend was the love of her life. He had a lot of money, with two children that had plenty of money on their own, but didn’t have her in his will! How should she talk to him about that? You see in that question all the markers- -She deserves the money -The children don’t need it Neither is for her to say. She doesn’t know the details of the children’s finances. They may be well off, but in incredibly stressful careers where having the option to retire earlier could be a life changer. I doubt she cares. She was around for maybe five percent of the life of “the love of her life”. The children were around for about 60-70%. She believes she deserves the guy’s life savings. Should she get it, I’m pretty sure in short order she will decide her children need and deserve to inherit it more than the guy’s children. It’s human nature. (the guy answering the column told her, basically, that she had no claim on the money and that she should focus on enjoying the relationship. I doubt she takes that advice, and bet that in short order she will be crying and explaining, through tears, that she is scared and doesn’t understand why he won’t do something about it, if he really cares about her).
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