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Ghost of LL

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Ghost of LL

  1. The BAM is a real interesting piece of late-Soviet era planning. The purpose was to create a line parallel to the Trans-Siberian further away from the border with China for obvious strategic reasons. For much of its length, the Trans-Siberian runs just a few miles from the Chinese border, which is a real problem given the tension of Sino-Soviet relations. The entire thing was a shitshow from the beginning. The Soviets sent a bunch of workers out to new towns that didn't have electricity or running water (many of which are now abandoned). And the permafrost on which the line is built is now thawing, which is going to destroy the entire line in the next decade. The tunnel that was attacked took nearly 30 years to complete. So if it was structurally compromised, that's not going to be an easy fix. It runs a mile underground and is 10 miles long. But here's the thing--there is an old bypass line that they used on the BAM during construction of that tunnel. I don't know what kind of shape it's in, but it'd obviously be a lot quicker to bring that into operation. And, of course, there's always the Trans-Siberian. So on balance, I don't think it's that big of a catastrophe.
  2. And what I'm saying is that that's still better than it was five years ago. Or ten years ago. Or certainly 20 years ago. The economy is performing well for everyone.
  3. The statistics don't bear that out. Wages are increasing at a >5% clip this year; inflation is at 3.2%. Wage growth has exceeded inflation throughout 2023. I'm sorry, man, but this is entirely a case of "feels" and misinformation. The truth is that the economy is great. For everyone. And particularly for those at the bottom of the wage scale. Arguing otherwise is to ignore every measure of objective reality.
  4. I would use a different “G” word when speaking of Pluckers’ food in any quantity: gross.
  5. With the common people? Is this some sort of joke?
  6. You need to explain this to me, because I don't understand it. For the average-earning bloke, this isn't just a good economy; it's a great economy. The average-earning bloke has no worries about unemployment. Even if he lost his job, he'd be able to find a new one in very short order. The average-earning bloke's purchasing power has never been higher. And as a result of that, the average-earning bloke's debt has increased consistent with the pattern seen during economic expansions (consumer debt only decreases during recessions). People are taking on more debt because they can afford it and are secure in their income streams. Consequently, the number of houses in active foreclosure is at its lowest point in years, and the number of mortgages that are delinquent is running well below pre-pandemic levels. So the average-earning bloke has a job, is secure in that job, has plenty of money to spend, and is paying his mortgage and credit cards. So yeah--it's pretty fucking hard for me to understand why it doesn't feel like a good economy to said bloke. Pluckers has that effect on people.
  7. And you know--Biden could adopt that commercial damned near word-for-word next year, and it'd be accurate the way things are trending.
  8. This year in particular, there's been kind of an innate conflict of interest for Deion. On the one hand, he wants to showcase Shadeur and set him up to be a high draft pick. But you can't do that purely with mobility and a chuck-and-duck passing game; the NFL requires a showing of drop-back capabilities. Unfortunately, Colorado doesn't have the OL to allow Shadeur to drop back. Hence the conflict of interest: Deion can either run a chuck-and-duck offense that will maximize wins, or he can run Shadeur as a drop-back passer to highlight Shadeur's NFL capabilities at the expense of the team. I think it's pretty clear that this conflict of interest was at the root of Deion's decision to sideline Sean Lewis. Maybe this problem goes away when Shadeur graduates. But if I'm a Colorado booster, I'm pretty displeased with the appearance that Deion is out primarily for himself/family at the expense of the Colorado program.
  9. This would be for federal income tax purposes only. State-law property taxes would be unaffected.
  10. Yeah--we used it last summer and I'm going to use it again in January. The baggage allowance is small. But if you're just there for a long weekend and you're just taking a carry-on, it's fine. Otherwise, you're going to have to deal with a luggage-delivery service. But here's the thing: it's a combination transportation and sightseeing deal. Yea, you get to the airport in 7 minutes. And that kicks the shit out of an hour in an Uber (which is going to cost at least $100 on its own). But you get an amazing sightseeing tour along the way. From the 30th Street Heliport, you go south down the Hudson as Manhattan is restricted airspace. You then hook a left south of the Battery, which gives you a great view of the length of Manhattan on one side and the Statue of Liberty on the other. And then five minutes later, you're zooming up between the departure runways at JFK (which I found actually to be a bit unnerving) as you approach the helicopter terminal. Is it worth it? I mean, yeah--I think so. It's damned expensive. But it's also something you're only ever really going to do in NYC.
  11. The Brazilian angle is interesting. Brazil doesn't have a mutual-defense agreement with Guyana, but it does have a close relationship. The only road through the Amazon crosses the Brazilian border into Guyana in the Esequiba region. And that has been a major Brazilian infrastructure project over the past decade as Brazil has sought an overland route to Caribbean ports. One would expect that Lula would be somewhat indulgent of the Maduro regime and Venezuela generally. But that road is of such a national interest to Brazil that Lula may have to take a stand against Venezuela on this one.
  12. Arlington. And yeah--you want to knock up his date. Particularly if you like girls with the ass of a marathoner.
  13. Mrs.LL laid down the law months ago that there would be no discussion of politics at Thanksgiving. And Mrs.LL's edicts are generally followed by anyone who doesn't want to lose a testicle. There were two minor exceptions: A brief discussion over the kitchen island between her mildly-racist-but-solidly-anti-Trump father, her similarly situated brother, and her MAGA/Qanon-adjacent cousin about race. There's kind of the usual arguments against CRT and the denial of systemic racism in America. And then I bring up redlining. Blank stares all the way around. So I quickly give a lesson on what redlining was and its ongoing effects. And after 20 years around these people, they know I'm not bullshitting or making stuff up, so there's just a general "Huh--I didn't know that." I don't know that it changed any opinions. But it ended the conversation. And perhaps it planted the seeds of further thought. The other one was with my nephew. He's young and idealistic. He says he's voting for RFK Jr. Oh, and he's in a swing-ish state (Virginia). I absolutely went off on him. I told him he might as well vote for Trump, and that would mean among other things that his super-hot girlfriend that he brought to Thanksgiving wouldn't be able to get an abortion if one slipped past the goalie. And he'd get to explain to her why she had to carry an unwanted pregnancy to term because of his disdain for the two-party system. I think that one may have had more impact.
  14. That's pretty great. So how does a film get a nomination?
  15. This is what I get for watching Big10 football—it’s both boring and awful at the same time.
  16. It took more more time than I am comfortable admitting for the thought, "jeez--USC's nonconference schedule is really Big10 heavy next year" to pass through my head.
  17. Ha—fucking refs fuck us on the spot, so we get a play that you only could get in 3rd-and-1.
  18. If this game were called straight, you might expect to see a call for a late hit.
  19. The booth didn’t get the memo from the conference.
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