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Vegas64

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Everything posted by Vegas64

  1. Because we live in a world of scarcity and vie for the same resources and our competition uses a fundementally similiar tactic (e.g. an overarching worldview) but in super different deployments and use cases.
  2. All fair questions and like with most things, time will tell. I'm especially curious to see whomever reports the most factual, assured, audited report of the real effects and destruction of the bombing. That will determine for me if all this squeeze was worth any juice.
  3. Iran is always on the "wrong side" of American interests, and unabashedly and vocally in a way that their mouths were writing checks their butts couldn't cash-- you know, a "bully". Terrorism: - Hamas existed because of Iran - Palastinian Islamic Jihad existed because of Iran - Hezbollah existed because of Iran - The Anti-American insurgency post-Iraq war existed because of Iran - Houthi terrorists existed because of Iran - Piracy on the high waters and oil tanker attacks exist due to Iran - 10/7 happens because of Iran Not only that, but Iran was a coward (as all bullies truly are deep down). Always avoiding directly doing anything but having their minions do their dirty work. And like all bullies, when punched in the nose, the truth is they are weak and cowards and projecting their insecurities. Iran has comported itself very poorly since 10/7 and should be shamed.
  4. I've been told repeatedly that history didn't start on 10/7.
  5. It’s like a scrimmage. Not exactly closed war games practice but not the real thing either. Got some reps in against a cream puff.
  6. It’s like the markets always knew. Wall st didn’t react and the price of oil actually fell a bit. Lol
  7. I actually hate that tweet. You are supposed to play the game and pretend, so that Iran can save face. That's the whole point. When you tell your kid you let him beat you in 1x1 basketball, it takes the fulfillment and emotional reward away. He still feels like a loser just as if he would have lost. You have to let the Iranian's that care about the current regime feel like their country wasn't completely emasculated and embarrassed but that they got some measure of revenge.
  8. You are right. It's like in a board game when you roll a 5 and then move 5 spaces but then land on a go back 5 spaces, so ultimately you end up exactly where you were. There is no tangible or material difference I guess, you are arguing. I think the jury is still out on that, but you are probably right. However, I think there is a psychological accomplishment. Iran has been talking crazy smack for decades now. They build up proxies to be their little footsoliders and thought they'd be able to sit back and threaten indefinitely. They've been exposed as bullies who talk loud but can't back it up. Like you do with bullies, Iran got punched in the face and their little friends are done. And for what? A day's worth of work for the military and a reminder to the misfit countries (again, the only countries to come out and publicly rebuke us for this is China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba and North Korea) about American military might. Just because we can't get along very well with each other domestically doesn't mean we can't still put the fear of death in anyone on this planet in any location, even if you are 400 feet deep under a mountain.
  9. Dominant performance by Israel & the U.S. Iran is not a blueblood-- needs to fire it's coach.
  10. If what Trump just said is true (still very debatable as of posting time), then it's hard for me to view this as anything but an unequivocal and amazing display of force and power and reminder to the rest of the world that we are him. I don't necessarily believe we obliterated Iran's nuclear program (the bull case), but I do think Israel with our final mile help did enough to set it back many years and keep the seat red hot for whichever Persian leadership or agencies try to pick back up the baton. Iran being exposed is a win for us, the Persian people who want to move forward, the region, the world.
  11. Hmmmm, so did Trump jump the gun here?
  12. I should have clarified the nobody was hurt part though, obviously PTSD is real and horrible. Looks like I was right. Sounds like de-escalation and exit ramp is on the table.
  13. Said this, this morning: I should have clarified the nobody was hurt part though, obviously PTSD is real and horrible.
  14. Crazy how far Pixar has fallen in the zeitgeist. Elio, a move I only am aware exists because my grandkids still eat poison like Happy Meals, had the worst box office performance for Pixar of all time. I thought the Elements movie would be the valley and the low bar and you couldn't do worse, but alas: https://apnews.com/article/box-office-train-dragon-elio-28-years-06aa2cd88e9035771767dd423a02e668
  15. I agree that he's begging the iranian nuclear question insomuch as the reason he's had to do this is because of what did previously did to tear up the previous treaty. It's creating a solution for a problem you created and whether it's because of gross negligence and error or calculated political shrewdness and evil, the result is the same-- a pretty solid show of force against an American, Israeli and really "Western" enemy.
  16. Iran is back-channeling that they aren't going to retaliate to America (because they can't and have been neutered). Their proxies are super weak which is again why this is lowkey brilliant to hit them now. Reports are they might pull a response like Trump's hit on the General Soleimani aka telegraph a symbolic response so that nobody actually gets hurt and maybe some property damage happens and then let it die. That's the bull case, at least.
  17. Right, but the simplified timeline is: - Iran was complying to treaty to keep them from enriching uranium at weapons grade levels - Trump rips up treaty - Iran enriches uranium at weapons grade levels - Trump and everyone tells them to stop - They don't - Bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran I get the relativist argument of "why can't Iran have the bomb and who are you to police that" but, like, that's not how the world works and it's naive at best to pretend that "might is right" is not still a thing.
  18. Israel, KSA, UAE, Jordan, Iraq, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait -- all American friends. We got them all addicted to the American Dream-- cut throat capitalism and oligarchy. We are like the crazy friend who got our conservative friends hooked on cocaine.
  19. Still unconfirmed but pretty much confirmed by rumors of the initial reports is that Iran relcoted their nuclear material from these bunkers before the bombings. This, in my mind, makes the bombings a failed mission. The only reason I initially liked this move was if it was a destruction of Iran's nuclear capabilities, but even if this bombing was a failure, there are still some things to like. Namely, the Iranian response appears like it's going to be a limited one based on intel and it's a good reminder to the rest of the world that America sees you when you're sleeping and can find you anywhere from the latest lethal autonomous vehicles to the stealth bombers carrying 40,000 lb payloads with tech from the 00's that is still relevant today. Interesting to note the only countries to rebuke us for this are...checks notes... China, North Korea, Russia, Cuba and Venezuela. The rest of the world has either backed us publicly or said nothing at all. I'm in the camp of if we are upsetting those misfits, then we are doing something right.
  20. I guess I'm more of a neoliberal hawk than I would have assessed myself to be (hard to look in the mirror, I guess) because of the things Trump has done since he's been in office, bombing Iran and destroying (or at least attempting to destroy) their nuclear program once and for all is the only thing I agree with.
  21. You are silly if you think that we don't have any allies or that Trump has run off any real support from Canada and Western Europe. He's an idiot and done a lot of damage in the short term, but I think most are understanding that in America tides turn every 4 years (or 2 years) and that in the long run it's a) smart to have the world's premiere power as an ally and b) on the longrun horizon things normalize.
  22. IF you believe in the Abrahamic God of YAHWEH, the biggest, largest, most fundamental thing that Jesus came to do was save the gentiles. That is what Muslims and Christians have in common being non-Hebrew, non-Chosen people, non-12 Tribes, etc. Christians and Muslims are more fundamentally the same (e.g. grafted onto the tree of life) than the Jews. What I just said trumps (no pun intended) every single other modern or cultural metric to compare and contrast the religions and the people. Again, big "IF" as I said in the first word of this-- if you aren't religious or a believer of an Abrahamic God then it's all moot anyways and you can slice and dice comparisons based on whatever you want.
  23. I haven't heard the bolded literally ever. What I have heard is more or less a feeling of brotherhood or shared appreciation from Christians to Jews via Judeo-Chrisitian aesthetics, but I think that is kind of silly considering the Muslims have the same YAHWEH as the Jews and Christians. If anything Christians and Muslims have more in common than Christians and Jews and I'll die on that hill.
  24. The thing about doing what we did-- you had to be sure. It's like trying to kill the huge spider in your house and you missed, you got one of it's legs, and now you have a pissed spider somewhere in your room and you don't want to sleep. You had one shot and you had to kill it. If we didn't "totally and fully obliterate" Iran's nuclear program, best scientific minds, and enriched uranium, this was a strategic blunder. You wait until it's in your scope and then shoot or you pass on the shot. I still think there isn't enough data and detail that's come out to know either way, but the vibe has shifted to it not being a complete and total success. No half measures, rip the bandaid off or don't do anything at all. The toothpaste is out of the tube now, however...
  25. Trimmed my IND position at halftime so salvaged some upside while still winning $1100 when OKC wins. What a run this playoffs that started with being bullish and betting $100 bet on NY Knicks pre Boston upset.
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