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2023 Poker in the Rear


Lurch

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7 hours ago, Lurch said:

Start live stream on Friday going 0-3 on first three hands, then get JJ vs an unknown that looks suspiciously solid (8:52 in)
 
https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/8pqif_WYFWM?start=532&feature=oembed

rough sesh man...  ive had days like that where you cant ever get out of the hole.   even when you doubled up on the flush v set

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rough sesh man...  ive had days like that where you cant ever get out of the hole.   even when you doubled up on the flush v set

Fortunately I sat with $1k I was up plying $2/5 before the stream started, so it really wasn’t that bad a night. Note, too, the software misread my cards on the flush vessel and thought I lost, so the leaderboard they showed was wrong
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How the fuck do you people play hold em?

sat here at a $2/$3 table at Harvey’s in tahoe for 3 hours. 
raised pre flop twice, TT and QQ 
Jxx and Kxx flops and continuation bet each time only to be reraised $100. 
I think I’ve seen 1 hand where I would have won if I stuck around.  

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How the fuck do you people play hold em?



The key is to be patient. If you avoid getting reckless and bide your time, eventually some Omaha player will sit while waiting for a spot in their game, and that’s when you start printing money.
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9 hours ago, dirtonia said:

Put in about a 5 hour session last night at TCH. I didn’t play particularly well, but had my big pairs hold (AA and KK) for two big pots and nut nut on a bomb pot.

+1500

Nice ^.

After taking a beating (no matter how I played) pretty much for the last 3/4 of 2022 at the Lodge, I've gone back to TCH a few times this year (with small positive results). Went there on Monday cuz I had a feeling their bad beat was getting close to hitting. Sat down at 7p and by 10 I was up 1200. Thought about leaving but the table was definitely active and I also kept at least splitting bomb pots.

Young kid ( good, LAG that I've played with before awhile back) sat down to my left at around 1030p and kept eyeing my stack and baiting me to get into a pot with him. He was raising around 20 or more each hand (either straddle or bet) and I figured to just be patient with him. For the most part though, I went card dead with him there. He finally moved to the other end of the table ( not sure why, as he was getting hands and dragging pots) but it worked out for me. Half hr later we get it in against each other in a pretty juicy bomb pot where I take around half of his 1100 stack. He then proceeds to go on tilt and starts dumping chips and money to about everyone at the table. He throws his last 150 in blind preflop, and I wake up with Kings. Half the table behind me so I raise to $300 to isolate but the small blind goes All In for $525, OOPS. Easy call for the 225 as there is $975 in, but as I do, he announces he has the best hand,...AA and wants to do two boards. I was all for that but the kid wants only one board so dealer is not willing to run it twice even though there would be a side pot between myself and the small blind.  Last card shown on the flop is a King, turn and river are both 7s for a boat (just for overkill). 

Left around 40 minutes later (2am) up $2700. Oh and I got an extra hundred for being clocked in around 1am as the bad beat was hit down at TCH in the valley. 

Good start (for now) for 2023.

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Two part post:

1.  When a table of pros sit with each other. Like 8 person negraneau, Phil, Phil, hansen, etc.   do the losers just go on tilt or get unlucky. I know there are different skill levels even among pros, but if they can all read each other, all change up plays, how do the winners continue to win?

 

2.  Youre in the final 8, top 4 paysYou’re last to act with AA. Five people go all in pre flop. You can cover the biggest all in stack  If you fold, you’re guaranteed to be in the money.  Fold or go all in. 

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1. a lot of luck with evenly skilled players. Coolers like Ace high flush vs King high flush or boat over boat is where the money moves around.

2. You aren't guaranteed to be in the money if you fold. If the short stack has the best hand, and the 2nd smallest stack has the second best hand, 3rd-3rd, 4th-4th etc, then the money just switches around with no one eliminated. With 5 others you're only about 20-25% to win. Depends on two things. If first is a shitload more than 2-4 then I would because I want to win. If 1-4 payouts are flat I probably fold and hope biggest stack wins. 

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1. At that point, they are playing a different game than “normal”. They are now leveraging their hours of studying the other’s specific play. I see this in the play of pros in our room. They are not treating me the same way they treat other pros.  They have to continually learn and change up their own play to stay profitable.

2. You should be playing to win a tourney, not simply cash it. The reality is that tourney poker is highly unprofitable for most of us. The only way to get close to profitability is to take the top prize on occasion and if you just play to cash, you’re greatly reducing your capability of taking one down. You’ve got an incredible opportunity to take a commanding chip lead w AA here. Maximize it.

Edited by Lurch
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38 minutes ago, blacklab said:

1. a lot of luck with evenly skilled players. Coolers like Ace high flush vs King high flush or boat over boat is where the money moves around.

2. You aren't guaranteed to be in the money if you fold. If the short stack has the best hand, and the 2nd smallest stack has the second best hand, 3rd-3rd, 4th-4th etc, then the money just switches around with no one eliminated. With 5 others you're only about 20-25% to win. Depends on two things. If first is a shitload more than 2-4 then I would because I want to win. If 1-4 payouts are flat I probably fold and hope biggest stack wins. 

Like with 1 I imagine it’s like 👍 playing a professional sport.   Still different levels but the difference is minute.  And even pros can chase or lose their emotions on one hand.     And if there’s familiarity “Matusow hasn’t played the last 12 hands and I know he’s still pissed at me from last week he may get aggressive”

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21 minutes ago, Lurch said:

1. At that point, they are playing a different game than “normal”. They are now leveraging their hours of studying the other’s specific play. I see this in the play of pros in our room. They are not treating me the same way they treat other pros.  They have to continually learn and change up their own play to stay profitable.

2. You should be playing to win a tourney, not simply cash it. The reality is that tourney poker is highly unprofitable for most of us. The only way to get close to profitability is to take the top prize on occasion and if you just play to cash, you’re greatly reducing your capability of taking one down. You’ve got an incredible opportunity to take a commanding chip lead w AA here. Maximize it.

Got it. Regarding point 1, if there’s a table of five pros and three amateurs, the pros may avoid each other unless necessary 

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Got it. Regarding point 1, if there’s a table of five pros and three amateurs, the pros may avoid each other unless necessary 

That’s pretty much what happens. And they all know it, and also that they need to hide it as much as possible. You want the amateurs to feel comfortable and not realize they’re effectively being targeted by the pack.

When you study your ranges, you see that your preflop call/fold/raise range facing an open is entirely dependent on WHO that opener is. They’re doing that to a much greater degree. Those guys are factoring in the persona of their opponent on virtually every move they make.
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On 1/23/2023 at 3:01 PM, blacklab said:

1. a lot of luck with evenly skilled players. Coolers like Ace high flush vs King high flush or boat over boat is where the money moves around.

2. You aren't guaranteed to be in the money if you fold. If the short stack has the best hand, and the 2nd smallest stack has the second best hand, 3rd-3rd, 4th-4th etc, then the money just switches around with no one eliminated. With 5 others you're only about 20-25% to win. Depends on two things. If first is a shitload more than 2-4 then I would because I want to win. If 1-4 payouts are flat I probably fold and hope biggest stack wins. 

Change your answer if top 7 makes money and at least two of the all ins can cover you?

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1) Exactly even skill levels are going to be very rare, and they will often try to exploit certain weaknesses (Player A pays off too many river bets, etc.), but generally a pro isn't going to play in that game without some dead money to spice it up. Put another way, what good is it to be the 8th best player in the world, if the top 7 are at the same table? Game selection is a huge part of playing successfully.

2) Easy easy easy easy call unless one of a few very rare situations that are exceptions apply. You simply aren't going to find a spot with more $$ equity than AA in preflop. The larger the tournament, the more pronounced this effect is, b/c the more buyins there are at stake up top. If you're playing a $2100 tourney with 1400 runners, $640k up top and a $3000 mincash, and you played the tournament 100 times, you make more than twice as much money winning once and bubbling 99 times compared to mincashing 100 times. 

Your "top 7 make the money" is even more of a call, since to miss the money, you not only have to lose to someone that covers you, but have no one that you cover get eliminated. 

The exceptions:

  • The tournament is a satellite where the top players all earn the same prize and you are a lock or a virtual lock to earn the prize if you fold everything.
  • You have a micro stack (2 blinds or something) where even winning the hand makes you not that much more of a favorite to get a top position, but still would probably need to be right on the stone bubble just because most hands like this don't actually have 3 or 4 people busting. 
  • Very rare situations where life utility can come up. If you win a $30 satty into the main event, the $15,000 mincash is a huge ROI and I understand decreasing your overall $EV slightly b/c of that utility (same idea as if someone offered me the choice of taking $2M straight up or flipping a coin for $5M, I'm snapcalling the 2M even though I lose $500k in EV, b/c the gap in utility from 0 to 2M is WAY greater than that from 2M to 5M.) But that only applies to tournies where you get in for WAY less than the buyin. If you buy into a $600 tourney, and are then folding AA pre to lock up $1100 mincashes, you have no business buying into $600 tournies to begin with. 
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THE most tilting move in poker? Leaving your headphones at home and being forced to listen to asinine table talk. Particularly painful on tourney days where everyone insists on telling how they went out and their decision process.

Fucking hell

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interesting day today. 

very first hand I play is my 3rd hand dealt where I am the SB. full table.   I am sitting in seat 9 next to the dealer.  it folds around, and I realize its on me, I havent looked at my cards and just ask if seat 1 wants to chop. He says "hell no".  ok, time to look. 

2 red kings..... so fuck it, lets limp since the BB seemed desperate to play.... he snap shoves for $91???

 I obvi call... hes got A9hh.   flop is 786  no hearts... but no worry the river A takes it down.... sigh.   add back on for $100.  and move to seat 7 which just opened.

proceed to slowly chip up for about 90 mins... nothing exciting, normal small pots.  first big hand comes when I call a $5 bet as the dealer with Q4hh.   5 players to the flop. and its AK5hhh.. 

so yeah, nuts.    SB leads out for $5, BB makes it $20, MP calls the $20 as do I.  SB shoves for $45 total. BB calls. MP reshoves for about $150.  I call, and BB folds.

SB has JhTx, MP has 82hh.  ok. easy game. 

 

about 20 mins later I have 3h3x on the button, UTG makes it $15, there are 2 callers, with myself, its 4 to the flop.

flop comes KhQh8h.  UTG bets $10.  which gets the other 2 guys out....  Its only $10 and I have an emergency heart, plus that bet seemed timid.

so I call with plans to make a move on the turn if he checks or bets small again. 

turn is 3s

.... uh... ok... that's either great, or my ass is about to get in trouble.    UTG bets $30.  and I just think all I can do is call here.  so I do. 

River is another K and UTG like insta shoves for $250.  I take a minute, this betting line makes no sense.  and I finally sigh call he shows AThh. and gets up in disgust.  (cant really blame him that was an ugly runout with my hand).  

last big hand.

we play a bomb pot  almost everyone had $500+ to start the hand. I had around $800

I'm dealer w/ AAT7 (A7dd)  top board is KxQd2d bottom board is Ts7s5x (I also had the As but not suited)

checks until MP bets $25, guy to my right makes it $50.  I call,  so do 3 others plus the original bettor.

top turn card is the 8d  bottom is the 9d.   yahtzee up top... not feeling so great about the bottom anymore. 

it checks around, and I try to build the pot.  I bet out $100. whole table folds.   lol alright. that was almost +300 to me

 

leave shortly after.  in for $400 out for $1170

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On 1/27/2023 at 11:37 AM, TXSooner518 said:

1) Exactly even skill levels are going to be very rare, and they will often try to exploit certain weaknesses (Player A pays off too many river bets, etc.), but generally a pro isn't going to play in that game without some dead money to spice it up. Put another way, what good is it to be the 8th best player in the world, if the top 7 are at the same table? Game selection is a huge part of playing successfully.

2) Easy easy easy easy call unless one of a few very rare situations that are exceptions apply. You simply aren't going to find a spot with more $$ equity than AA in preflop. The larger the tournament, the more pronounced this effect is, b/c the more buyins there are at stake up top. If you're playing a $2100 tourney with 1400 runners, $640k up top and a $3000 mincash, and you played the tournament 100 times, you make more than twice as much money winning once and bubbling 99 times compared to mincashing 100 times. 

Your "top 7 make the money" is even more of a call, since to miss the money, you not only have to lose to someone that covers you, but have no one that you cover get eliminated. 

The exceptions:

  • The tournament is a satellite where the top players all earn the same prize and you are a lock or a virtual lock to earn the prize if you fold everything.
  • You have a micro stack (2 blinds or something) where even winning the hand makes you not that much more of a favorite to get a top position, but still would probably need to be right on the stone bubble just because most hands like this don't actually have 3 or 4 people busting. 
  • Very rare situations where life utility can come up. If you win a $30 satty into the main event, the $15,000 mincash is a huge ROI and I understand decreasing your overall $EV slightly b/c of that utility (same idea as if someone offered me the choice of taking $2M straight up or flipping a coin for $5M, I'm snapcalling the 2M even though I lose $500k in EV, b/c the gap in utility from 0 to 2M is WAY greater than that from 2M to 5M.) But that only applies to tournies where you get in for WAY less than the buyin. If you buy into a $600 tourney, and are then folding AA pre to lock up $1100 mincashes, you have no business buying into $600 tournies to begin with. 

I asked about #1 because I’ve seen it on tv. Maybe those players have appearance fees so they’re never out money 

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RE: pros and fish
Just watch the Atlantic City casino scene from Rounder yo.

Had a brutal session at TCH last Friday, combination of bad beats, card dead and ultimately poor decisions lead to -2k.

@BillyGoatHill are you one of the psychos around here that stacks your chips in 10s vs 20s, if so, we’ve played together the last few times I was there.

Think there was even a @blacklab sighting maybe last week at the PLO tourney?

Not sure where I’m playing tonight, but cheers to my fellow degens for some run good!

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Did you cash in the tourney? I actually didn’t leave until around 9:30am today, lol.

Was being a bit stubborn, and really wanted to get back the full 2k I sorta punted last week. I’d get to about +2k, then lose a big win, back to +x, etc.

Finally left +1.6k.

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On 2/3/2023 at 3:03 PM, dirtonia said:

are you one of the psychos around here that stacks your chips in 10s vs 20s,

Ha! No ....my OCD/analness does not allow me to do that. Plus, it bugs me too when regarded newbs do that. Harder to judge chip stacks. We were both there last Friday though and I did land up talking with Bob a bit when he was still in the tourney.

Didn't make it this Friday as we were still dealing with power issues at our house and it would have been poor form on my part to leave the missus and the doggies at home by themselves without power as it had been a few days.... "See ya honey! going to play cards" !!

Did make it last night though, with another good session for +1700 ( though I did move out of seat nine, cant see that well from there. And of course a couple of hrs later quad 4's were hit from there. That paid 1400).

I like playing Fridays (seems to be the best night at TCH) though it has always bugged me that they give women half off on that day. I think that is bullshit and have talked with the management ( I had gotten to know all the original TCH owners and dealers pretty good and know many now) about how they actually are probably losing money doing that. Why don't they do something for the regulars? Loyalty? Seniors or the like? Half off for them doesn't bring in many more women (count them on a Friday) they are playing for 6 an hr and they don't come in on any other night. There are a couple there that usually only play that night, and when it comes around to the bomb pots where it is player's choice they ALWAYS pick double board hold em bomb pots. WTF? Just a waste of freaking time as it is always a chop and you have to wait for the dealer top chop up the stacks. I haven't  EVER seen a scoop on double board hold em. Those two NITs bug me so much, that if I am seated at their table , I immediately ask for a table change.... Enough of that, Rant Over.

I guess to figure out who you are, next time I'm there on a Friday, I'll just have to piece together some scenes from Gladiator and say out loud to the room as I am checking in, "I am Maximus Desmus Meridius, ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!! ...DIRTONIA!!

As always, Good Luck! Run Good. 🤠

 

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Didn't cash. Got moved from first table to second which really sucked because I had great reads on everyone at the first table, no one was raising crazy preflop, and went from 20k to 50k with good value betting and semi bluffs. Went to second table and 4-5 people were all in almost every hand and could never pick up a  hand to make them pay. Putzed around with a small stack but ended up 6th, top 4 were paid. That may be the softest and easiest tournament in Austin since 512 shut their PLO tournament down.

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On 2/2/2023 at 8:31 PM, TXSooner518 said:

If it’s a made for TV thing, yeah, some combo of appearance fees/sponsor money/brand building. But the best 9 players aren’t just sitting at a private game not streamed or televised pushing money around without a whale or 3 to feast on. Why would they?

Jerry Buss was a whale that held his own for a bit right?

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7 hours ago, Lurch said:

I think they told Jerry he was holding his own. It wasn’t likely true

not that Jerry gave a fuck.

 

he and Guy Laliberte were the 2 guys on that show who could legitmately lose anything at those tables and stakes and not give that much of a fuck about it because they were Scrooge McDucking it with all their money.

Jerry with the Lakers, and Guy with Cirque

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2 hours ago, Lurch said:

Call $590 to win $1425?

I’d assume best case you’re in a coin flip and worst you’re up against AA praying for spades. Without a read on UTG it’s hard to say. Unless it’s tournament play I try not to risk my whole stack pre flop, but everyone has their own risk tolerance 

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$2/5, $700

Old Asian limps UTG w $1100. Tight CO makes it $35. Young aggro kid makes it $110. I look down at AsKs. This whole thing looks sketchy as fuck so I just call. UTG jams and other two fold.

Call $590 to win $1425?

Jesus how gross. How often does Old Asian limp? Is Old Asian wearing any gold chains or is he like 88 years old and having hot tea?
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On 2/7/2023 at 8:04 PM, AUS-97HORN said:

not that Jerry gave a fuck.

 

he and Guy Laliberte were the 2 guys on that show who could legitmately lose anything at those tables and stakes and not give that much of a fuck about it because they were Scrooge McDucking it with all their money.

Jerry with the Lakers, and Guy with Cirque

Too lazy to look it up but I think I read there was this one multi billionaire who was beating alotnof pros basically by betting heavy almost every hand at every stage of the hand

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Jesus how gross. How often does Old Asian limp? Is Old Asian wearing any gold chains or is he like 88 years old and having hot tea?

He was an unknown. I’d seen him make a few smart plays and decided he had seen enough of buttons aggression to make a play here with lesser hands, expanding his range beyond just AKs, KK+

I call, 8s 4s 2h was an above average flop. 5c doesn’t change anything. Ah gives me a lot of hope, but he flips over AA and I take the walk of shame to the parking lot.

(PLO “session” saved the day)
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We need 29.3% equity. Our equity vs various ranges:

AA - 12.1%

KK+ - 23.1%

KK+, AKs - 32.1%

KK+, AK - 40.2%

QQ+, AKs - 37.7%

QQ+, AK - 41.9%

So basically if he can ever have a hand worse than KK, we should call. A smart player with a relentless aggro in the hand and a cold call in there as well seems not insane to think they could make a play on occasion. 

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