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Posted
53 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

I'm morphing into a delusional progressive in my old age. Sue me!

Become a pragmatic progressive, and maybe we'll start to get somewhere.

Seriously, we all need to start from a standpoint of "presume that everything that everyone else is doing is driven by pure malevolence and greed," then you can come up with some good policy options.  But stop even pretending that in this late-stage capitalism world, we're dealing with good-faith counterparties.  They want to bleed you of every dollar, and leave your empty husk on the side of the road.  Understand that and their motivation, and then you can make educated and intelligent choices.

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Posted
3 hours ago, immamac said:

No offense, but it just sounds like you have shitty DBAs. 

That’s probably true. But their incompetence becomes my problem.

Posted
31 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Become a pragmatic progressive, and maybe we'll start to get somewhere.

Seriously, we all need to start from a standpoint of "presume that everything that everyone else is doing is driven by pure malevolence and greed," then you can come up with some good policy options.  But stop even pretending that in this late-stage capitalism world, we're dealing with good-faith counterparties.  They want to bleed you of every dollar, and leave your empty husk on the side of the road.  Understand that and their motivation, and then you can make educated and intelligent choices.

While not that extreme and I joke, but I have become definitely more progressive on certain things in my old age. Namely marijuana legalization is 100% a no-brainer and billionaires and late stage capitalism is a scourge. I'm an agrieved middle class guy who is seeing the light that we are being squeezed and wrung out. "bled of every dollar and left an empty husk" as you so eloquently stated. 

It's we (99%) who have the leverage and grievances. It's they (1%) who should be changing for us. Fitting that today is Festivus, I guess.

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Posted

Back to AI and the bubble, read this and though it appropriate and directionally correct:

Quote

 

It’s the burning question that everyone from Wall Street traders to retail investors is asking right now: Are we in an artificial intelligence bubble?

James van Geelen, a market analyst who spends a lot of time thinking about A.I.’s potential as a disruptive force in markets and business, gets the question a lot. And he’s quick to answer: “If we’re not, we’re going to be,” van Geelen, the founder and C.E.O. of Citrini Research, which specializes in megatrend investing ideas, told DealBook.

“Show me an instance over the past 300 years of a truly transformative technology that didn’t result in an asset bubble — railroads, steam engines, radio, airplanes, the internet,” he said. “When capital floods into a technology because everyone realizes that it’s transformative, eventually you get a bubble.”

By this time next year, we may be pondering a new question altogether: How big can the bubble get?

 

 

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Posted
28 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

By this time next year, we may be pondering a new question altogether: How big can the bubble get?

All the big.  We have a regime that is interested only in pouring as much coal as possible into the engine, damn the consequences.

The biggest consequence being all the damage done when a massively overinflated bubble bursts.

It ain't just about how big it gets.  It's about how much damage that ginormous bubble will do when it bursts.  Nobody at the wheel seems to care, not even a little bit.

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Posted
3 hours ago, HenryJames said:

 

Man.  AI really could have seized the opportunity and bought a lot of good will with a response of

"All you can eat buffet?  Sure you need that, fatty?"

24 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Sez you.  I'm a sucker for a gal with a supple, curvy basilar ganglia.  The stupid Japanese blur them outta photos, but I've gotta source.....

Posted (edited)

For all the fun we have about how there aren’t any real or good applications of AI and it’s all fugazi, I was listening to something that startled me.

self-driving à la Waymo is a slam dunk grand slam AI story from every angle you look. Self driving only took off after all the neural AI discoveries and advancements of LiDAR and sensors to feed data for foundational models to process. Most of us are familiar because we live or spend significant time in Austin (or SF), but as it starts to roll out nationally and globally the world will appreciate it.

- CDC statistics cite over 40k deaths in USA a year or 120 a day due to vehicle crashes operated by people. 

- adjusted for city street driving, apples to apples, Waymo is 91% safer then people driving . You can understand why if you’ve driven the last 10 years with the advent of the smartphone and the epidemic of distracted driving. Heck someone on one of the AI threads posted while driving on CarPlay.

- and this isnt just a small data set. Waymo has millions of miles driven. 

- 91% reduction in accidents is a massive cash savings. CDC put out a report on Medical costs and cost estimates of lives lost is $470bn a year (2022). 91% reduction and reducing crashes 10x is $420bn a year. That is nuts.

- It was relatively cheap for an AI investment too. 15bn investment to get this to this point. $15bn is a fraction of what foundational AGI models have burned. $15bn is 1 year of Ubers profits. It’s 1 month of Google profits. 
 

Edited by Vegas64
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Vegas64 said:

For all the fun we have about how there aren’t any real or good applications of AI and it’s all fugazi, I was listening to something that startled me.

self-driving à la Waymo is a slam dunk grand slam AI story from every angle you look. Self driving only took off after all the neural AI discoveries and advancements of LiDAR and sensors to feed data for foundational models to process. Most of us are familiar because we live or spend significant time in Austin (or SF), but as it starts to roll out nationally and globally the world will appreciate it.

- CDC statistics cite over 40k deaths in USA a year or 120 a day due to vehicle crashes operated by people. 

- adjusted for city street driving, apples to apples, Waymo is 91% safer then people driving . You can understand why if you’ve driven the last 10 years with the advent of the smartphone and the epidemic of distracted driving. Heck someone on one of the AI threads posted while driving on CarPlay.

- and this isnt just a small data set. Waymo has millions of miles driven. 

- 91% reduction in accidents is a massive cash savings. CDC put out a report on Medical costs and cost estimates of lives lost is $470bn a year (2022). 91% reduction and reducing crashes 10x is $420bn a year. That is nuts.

- It was relatively cheap for an AI investment too. 15bn investment to get this to this point. $15bn is a fraction of what foundational AGI models have burned. $15bn is 1 year of Ubers profits. It’s 1 month of Google profits. 
 

You're hand waving and conflating generative AI with self driving cars, calling them all """""AI"""""

No. Traditional machine learning isn't generative AI. GenAI isn't a closed loop PID control for a couple thousand pounds of steel and batteries, and the underlying technologies and datasets are pretty wildly different. 

Fucks sake, you keep claiming you're not a genAI apologist and you're making the same fallacious and overly general arguments they do

Edited by Captainant


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