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Posted
4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Your premise is wrong because we aren't being treated as a 2-loss team.  We are being treated as a 3-loss team with a top 10 SOS.

Our SOR is stronger than our ranking.  It's insane that we are ranked below our SOR with the wins that we have.

I mean this is kind of semantics though because the committee is pretty opaque about what metrics are most important. In the rankings as released Texas is located in the middle of a bunch of 10-2 and 11-1 teams so the refrain “only the loss column matters” is false: Texas is ranked higher than teams with fewer losses and so by definition there is more going on. 

Posted
20 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

None of this can be “proven or disproven” but there are a few pieces of evidence and facts. 
 

Hypothetical: Texas played and convincingly beat a middling G5 or bad P4 team in week one instead of losing to OSU. Let’s use . . . 7-5 CUSA LaTech as a stand-in. 

- FACT: Texas is the lone three loss team in the top 15 of these rankings. Functionally, they are being treated like a two loss team.

- FACT: Bama, OU, ND, Miami, Vandy are all jostling as two loss teams for a spot. That’s Texas’ current competition as a three loss team. 

- FACT: A two loss team or three loss Texas needs to be ranked 10 or higher to get in. The last two slots are going to be G5/ACC champ or G5. 

- FACT: The committee has no issue looking beyond H2H for these rankings, although it’s not guaranteed they will.

- Justified conjecture: The committee is not going to give the SEC 6/12 slots in the CFP absent an extremely odd and compelling circumstance. Texas is in a spot with UGA, OM, Bama, OU, A&M, and Vandy and two are getting left out. 

Less justified conjecture: think the committee looks barely considers OOO wins against inferior comp. A loss will hurt but winning certainly gives you no credit. 
 

So let’s presume an identical record and a 42-10 win over LaTech in place of the tOSU loss. In fact, some teams have pretty compelling cases to still be ahead of Texas right now. 
 

- Bama finished above Texas in the SEC standings. The record against common opponents is identical (2-1) and Bama’s win over UGA is the strongest. ‘Bama’s loss to FSU came week zero and not midseason. FSU slumped but they had a talented roster, and UT played LaTech that week. It is very easy to give them the nod based on conference standings. 
 

- OU has a weaker case but they still have one. They certainly get to point to an early W against Michigan as more valuable than a win against LaTech. They have no loss against an unranked team. They have a road win against Bama as strong as Texas’ versus A&M. Texas has the Vandy win and the H2H. This is a hypothetical, maybe the H2H carries the day, maybe it doesn’t. It’s in no way “proven” either way. 
 

- Vandy: Texas would for sure be above Vandy. But Texas is already above Vandy. Scheduling LaTech gets you nothing.

-ND: You say a 10-2 Texas with a loss to Florida and win vs G5 is ranked above ND.  I say: if it comes down to ND vs. a sixth SEC team, the smart money bets ND. 
 

The case is not near as clear-cut as people are making it out to be. It basically hinges on the committee choosing to reward H2H vs OU abd that is not at all a sure proposition. 

First of all, I was responding to your statement that "There’s not a lot of hard evidence that the OSU loss is really hurting Texas here and quite a bit of counter evidence that it isn’t". So now you are moving the goal post to "the case is not near as clear-cut as people are making it out to be. It basically hinges on the committee choosing to reward H2H vs OU abd that is not at all a sure proposition."

Sure, I concede it is certainly possible the committee would decide to eschew head to head and rank Texas below both OU and Alabama in that scenario. It is much more likely in the scenario you describe that they slot those teams Texas - OU - Alabama (just as they've slotted OU over Alabama), with Alabama having a chance to leap frog both with a second win over Georgia. 

But the idea the OSU loss is not "really hurting Texas" is just false. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I mean this is kind of semantics though because the committee is pretty opaque about what metrics are most important. In the rankings as released Texas is located in the middle of a bunch of 10-2 and 11-1 teams so the refrain “only the loss column matters” is false: Texas is ranked higher than teams with fewer losses and so by definition there is more going on. 

it matters for SEC and Big Ten.  they sprinkle in ACC/Big 12/G5 as you get down the poll. 1-10 are in order of loss column(even Tech with the 69th ranked schedule or some such)

BYU is in there because they expect them to lose and they are Big 12 and they are #11 so it doesn't matter anyway for playoff(you have to be in the 10 spot)

They always try to do something down the poll to show it isn't just loss column.  Vandy is the only outlier for Big Ten/SEC and that was easy because we beat them head to head and guess what, it still doesn't mean anything because 11-25 aren't making the playoff.

once they decide on the field things will move to try to avoid rematches.

Posted
48 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

- Justified conjecture: The committee is not going to give the SEC 6/12 slots in the CFP absent an extremely odd and compelling circumstance. Texas is in a spot with UGA, OM, Bama, OU, A&M, and Vandy and two are getting left out. 

 

and hilariously we played 4 of them and went 3-1 but we are getting left out.  why?  because of the number in the loss column.

add ND who played aggy and lost at home and we drilled, have better SOS, SOR.  why? loss column.

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