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  • AUS-97HORN
    AUS-97HORN

    For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

  • Im_smarter_then_you
    Im_smarter_then_you

  • InkaUtexas
    InkaUtexas

    I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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When I worked in kz if the generator stopped running at our field office overnight you would come into all the water frozen in the mornings.

A typical building will lose 1 to 2° per hour if it is 10° outside. Losing power for a half a day won’t cause problems. If they lose power for two days, they are pretty much fucked. That is when pipes will burst and people living in the building at 32° or less will have a huge problem. You cannot stay warm in your bedroom or your living room if the inside temperature is in the 30s. You will need to crowd people into a very small space - and make sure you have insulation between you and the floor as you try to sleep.

You are going to have a lot of dead old people if the power out is last for more than a day or two.

Wrong thread

Edited by Sawbonz

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

Wrong thread

…which is why three posts up there is a drunk Russian instead of my original football related post.

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

That is when pipes will burst...

You presume they have running water.

3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

You are going to have a lot of dead old people if the power out is last for more than a day or two.

Ukraine is simply returning the favor for all of the power grid attacks they've been enjoying for the last few years

This is hysterical. I just watched a video that said prior to Moscow losing power. The emergency broadcast radio was hijacked and it started playing Swan Lake. Apparently in the Soviet Union that radio would play Swan Lake before the government announced bad news, like the death of a leader or a coup attempt or something really bad,

They are bending Putin over and going in dry to an extent I did not realize,

Update on the tanker

https://archive.is/3hZJo

Russia Asks United States to Stop Pursuit of Fleeing Oil Tanker

The government of Russia has made a formal diplomatic request that the United States stop its pursuit of an oil tanker that had been sailing for Venezuela and is now fleeing the Coast Guard in the Atlantic Ocean, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

The request was delivered late on New Year’s Eve to the State Department, said the people, who discussed the diplomatic message on the condition of anonymity. It was also sent to the White House’s Homeland Security Council, one of the people said.

The dispute over the tanker comes as President Trump is trying to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and has repeatedly complained about his inability to end the war. Earlier this week, Mr. Trump hosted President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine at Mar-a-Lago, his private club and residence in Florida, and the two leaders expressed optimism about ending the war even as they appeared to make little progress on the thorny issues of security guarantees and territory swaps.

What you should know. The Times makes a careful decision any time it uses an anonymous source. The information the source supplies must be newsworthy and give readers genuine insight.

Learn more about our process.

Russia’s request that the United States stop chasing the vessel could add a new wrinkle to the negotiations.

American forces have been tracking the tanker, known as the Bella 1, for nearly two weeks. The ship, which started its journey in Iran, had been on its way to pick up oil in Venezuela when U.S. forces tried to stop and board it in the Caribbean Sea. The U.S. authorities said the ship was not flying a valid national flag, making it a stateless vessel susceptible to boarding under international law, and said they possessed a seizure warrant. But the crew of the Bella 1 refused to comply and sailed back toward the Atlantic.

In the days since, the ship has tried to claim the protection of Russia, with its crew painting a Russian flag on the side and radioing the Coast Guard to say they were sailing under Russian authority. The Bella 1 recently appeared in Russia’s official register of ships, under a new name, the Marinera, with a home port of Sochi, on the Black Sea.

The White House declined to comment on the record. But a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing law enforcement matter said the Trump administration continues to view the tanker as “stateless” because it was flying a false flag when it was first approached by the Coast Guard. The State Department and the Russian Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Although securing Russian protection may be a long shot for the Bella 1 under international law, Russia’s diplomatic intervention could complicate the U.S. attempt to seize the tanker, which stems from an ongoing conflict with Venezuela. David Tannenbaum, a former sanctions compliance officer at the Treasury Department, said earlier this week that it was “unclear” whether Russia’s providing “overnight flag registration” to the ship would prove valid.

Mr. Trump has instituted a quasi-blockade on some tankers transporting oil from Venezuela as he seeks to pressure the government of Nicolás Maduro. The export of oil, mainly to China, has kept Venezuela’s economy afloat. So far, the United States has boarded and taken possession of two other tankers in the Caribbean. American officials have said they plan to seize more ships.

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Mr. Maduro has ordered the Venezuelan Navy to accompany some tankers leaving his country and has considered putting troops on board, potentially heightening the chances of an armed confrontation with U.S. forces on the high seas.

Finland's authorities seized control of a vessel suspected of damaging a data cable between Helsinki and Tallinn - Yle. The data cable was damaged today, and the anchor chain of the vessel was hanging in the water. The vessel, Fitburg, was going from St Petersburg, Russia to Haifa, Israel. It is flagged in St Vincent and the Grenadines. Fitburg is not on any official sanctions lists but has been highlighted as a vessel of interest by a sanctions monitoring platform. Fitburg was intercepted in Finland's exclusive economic zone, and the cable damage took place in Estonia's economic zone. 14 crew members were detained.

Several days ago, information appeared that Denys Kapustin, commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps, has been killed defending Ukraine. Turns out, Denys Kapustin is alive and well! Ukrainian Defense Intelligence has performed a complex special operation to save the life of Denys Kapustin, and reveal those who ordered his killing. The operation lasted over a month. Russia has paid half a million dollars to kill Denys Kapustin. This money is now at the disposal of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence and will be used to enhance the units.

"C.I.A. director, Mr. Ratcliffe, had consistently protected his own officers’ efforts for Ukraine. He kept the agency’s presence in the country at full strength; funding for its programs there even increased...

But a parallel weapon had remained in place —permission for C.I.A. and military officers to share targeting intelligence and provide other assistance for Ukrainian drone strikes against crucial components of the Russian defense industrial base. These included factories manufacturing “energetics” — chemicals used in explosives — as well as petroleum-industry facilities.

In June, beleaguered U.S. military officers met with their C.I.A. counterparts to help craft a more concerted Ukrainian campaign. It would focus exclusively on oil refineries and, instead of supply tanks, would target the refineries’ Achilles’ heel: A C.I.A. expert had identified a type of coupler that was so hard to replace or repair that a refinery would remain offline for weeks. (To avoid backlash, they would not supply weapons and other equipment that Mr. Vance’s allies wanted for other priorities.)

As the campaign began to show results, Mr. Ratcliffe discussed it with Mr. Trump. The president seemed to listen to him; they had a frequent Sunday tee time. According to U.S. officials, Mr. Trump praised America’s surreptitious role in these blows to Russia’s energy industry. They gave him deniability and leverage, he told Mr. Ratcliffe, as the Russian president continued to “jerk him off.”...

The C.I.A. would also be authorized to assist with Ukrainian drone strikes on “shadow fleet” vessels in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean."

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/12/30/world/europe/ukraine-war-us-russia.html?unlocked_article_code=1.A1A.hO5p.huXimEYkcf2R&smid=url-share

cc: @PTINS

The entire article is very interesting. Looks like the NYT got an in-depth perspective from Gen Kellogg after leaving his position.

Edited by KYHorn

Just now, KYHorn said:

They gave him deniability and leverage, he told Mr. Ratcliffe, as the Russian president continued to “jerk him off.”

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Two more MIM-104 Patriot fire units have been delivered to Ukraine. This has been reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. The air defense systems were supplied from stockpiles of the German army and partially financed by Norway, Lithuania and Denmark. The systems were pledged in August 2025.

Tendar doing amazing stuff. Russia gained less than 1% of Ukrainian territory last year for a whole shitload of dead and wounded that they are struggling to replace. Somebody said that to gain a similar amount over the next year, they will have to start nabbing dudes off the streets of Moscow in broad daylight.


I compiled my data relating to the frontline movements in the year 2025.

- Russians gained around 4,075 square kilometer (1,573 square miles) over this period of time. This is around 0.67% of Ukraine's total size.

- Ukraine holds 79.4% of its territory.

- The Russian occupation holds around 19.4% of Ukrainian territory.

- Around 1.2% are grey zone / not clearly under control by either side.

- The major movements happened in the Donetsk region, which is currently Russia's primary target, but overall the Russian advances are distributed to 6 different Ukrainian regions. I have added my map to break it down more in detail.

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Not sure if there is one for all of the stuff Ukraine sent their way, since we don't have a lot of access to stuff once it hits the border.

G9moP7LWkAAxOqN?format=jpg&name=medium

@PTINS @Gatorubet and others, you might find this interesting.

For nearly four years, many have been saying that Russia’s economy is about to collapse under the pressure of Western sanctions and the war. Yet it has continued to function.

Aleksandr Kolyandr, a research fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, notes that economic growth fueled by massive spending on the defense sector has virtually come to a halt.

Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) is now publishing figures that are far from reassuring for the Kremlin.

In November, industrial output turned negative. Across the economy as a whole, production fell by 0.7% year on year, while manufacturing - for the first time since February 2023 - slipped into contraction, down 1%. Adjusted for seasonal factors, output shrank by 2.5% month on month, pointing not to a one-off disruption but to the start of a sustained cooling.

Formally, industrial production for January-November still shows resilience, posting growth of 0.8%. But this growth is driven by a narrow set of sectors and increasingly fails to reflect the economy’s real condition.

▪️ Civilian industries slide into recession

A 0.7% increase in mining output masks a deep downturn outside the raw materials sector. For the first time in 15 years, food production declined, with the drop accelerating from 0.2% in October to 0.8% in November. Wood processing fell sharply (-9.1%), as did the chemical industry (-1.7%), furniture manufacturing (-7.5%), and clothing production (-2.4%).

In machinery and equipment, the situation is close to collapse. Output of tractors plunged by 61.6%, bulldozers by 53.7%, elevators by 37.2%, and passenger railcars by half. The automotive industry has reverted to its worst levels of 2022, recording a 34.1% decline.

According to estimates by experts at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, civilian industries have cut output by nearly 5% since the start of the year, while virtually all the growth reported by Rosstat has come from the military-industrial complex and mining.

▪️ Guns or butter?

Even the defense sector, which has been operating in an overheated mode, is beginning to lose momentum. Output of "fabricated metal products" - the category Rosstat uses to classify military goods - fell by 1.6% in November. A year earlier, this segment had been growing by more than 30%. Production of "other transport equipment," including tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, slowed from 41% growth in October to just 6.4%.

Elina Ribakova, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, notes that for the first time since the war began, the Kremlin is facing a real choice between "guns and butter." The economy is no longer capable of sustaining growth in both the defense sector and the civilian economy at the same time.

▪️ Not a temporary downturn

Olga Belenkaya, an economist at the investment company Finam, links the slowdown to tight monetary policy, labor shortages, declining exports, and a strong ruble.

In an article for The Spectator, Aleksandr Kolyandr emphasizes that the current stagnation is structural rather than cyclical. In his words, oil revenues in recent years have been directed not toward investment and productivity growth, but toward missiles and tanks that will be burned in Ukraine.

This has created a two-tier economy: the defense sector and "everything else," where civilian industry is being squeezed by high interest rates and rising costs.

▪️ Darker clouds ahead?

The Russian government has already cut its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%. The World Bank expects at least three years of stagnation for Russia, while economists Aleksashenko, Inozemtsev, and Nekrasov predict stagnation lasting until the mid-2030s.

Janis Kluge, an economist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, notes that most of the factors that supported the economy in the first years of the war - high commodity prices and a consumer boom - have already disappeared.

As a result, Russia is now in its weakest economic position since the start of the war.

Russia’s economy is entering a phase in which the old growth model no longer works, and compensating for this through military orders is becoming increasingly difficult.

📷: Russia PMI Manufacturing, monthly dynamics and quarter averages/ Yevgeny Istrebin

G9fH6QVXoAAb79z?format=jpg&name=medium

https://www.threads.com/@euromaidanpress/post/DS-JKrojm1l?xmt=AQF0k9MfLtWBk5NUnb_H6vV1Dp88XVF9cEyNhJwATNPprA

BREAKING -- Russian Volunteer Corps commander alive!

Remember the anti-Putin Russian commander killed by a drone five days ago? He's alive.

Ukraine's military intelligence staged Denis Kapustin's death for over a month.

They didn't just fool Russian spies — they collected the $500,000 assassination fee the Kremlin put on his head.

Putin considered him a "personal enemy." His unit once raided 40km into Russian territory.

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https://www.threads.com/@_nickmelnick/post/DS-HF2GjJwf?xmt=AQF0k9MfLtWBk5NUnb_H6vV1Dp88XVF9cEyNhJwATNPprA

️The recent “death” of Denis Kapustin, known as “White Rex,” the commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, turned out to be a staged operation by Ukrainian intelligence.
💸General Kyrylo Budanov stated that this move allowed them to lure $500,000 from Russian special services as a reward for his alleged elimination.

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