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Bozo_Casanova

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Everything posted by Bozo_Casanova

  1. One Week out, RNC Chair Michael Watley is "cautiously optimistic." And now take a deep breath and prepare your mind to be blown
  2. The original spanish version actually got very popular in Miami four years ago. I hate to admit it, but it slaps. That was nine days ago.
  3. I'd ignore that - registration is more of a lagging than leading indicator of anything.
  4. nothing about this is bad news, it's an artifact of demography.
  5. Username checks out. A couple of things - first, the Puerto Rican paper is really more of an indicator of sentiment then a driver of behavior. Second, and far more importantly however, 2/3 of all "Puerto Ricans" actually reside in the mainland US, including about 6% of the population in Florida and nearly 4% of the population of Pennsylvania.
  6. how do you feel about burrata?
  7. So like I been saying 1) It is possible but unlikely that the pollsters are materially underestimating Trump again 2)It is possible but somewhat less likely that the pollsters are bang on the actual results 3) It is possible that the pollsters are underestimating harris and somewhat more likely than 1 or 2.
  8. Yeah, I think that's all true, although I don't think you can compare campaign driven early voting in 2024 to the exogenous weirdness of 2020. The GOP is really leaning into early voting and mail-in voting this time, which is smart, but those numbers come from somewhere. That said, whether Brown wins or loses, he's going to outperform Harris, both in % and absolute terms. And Moreno will not outperform Trump. This is true in general, but I'm not sure it's true this time, for two reasons. First, Donald Trump is a uniquely polarizing personality, and I don't think I need to explain that one. There are people who vote for Trump and Democrats everywhere else, and there will be some number of Republicans who don't vote for Trump this time, and vote Harris for President and Moreno for Senate. Second, though - his entire strategy to boost his share is to pull in a disproportional number of low propensity, low information voters. He will get some number ranging from a few to a lot, and most of them will vote Trump and walk out.
  9. They need to run the touchdown play
  10. I think there's going to be both, esp in Nevada. Probably in Ohio as well. The Trump/Sherrod Brown voter is absolutely a real thing.
  11. One afternoon when I was a kid we were parked on Seawall, me and my Dad, sitting on the hood of his Plymouth. He opened a can of beer, handed it to me so I could take a sip, and inhaled that Galveston-only mix of salt and kerosene and seaweed and cheap perfume and cigarette smoke said "this is it, son." And it was. Galveston was and still isTexas profonde in a way that very few places are anymore. Inshallah!
  12. Agreed. San Juan is on a whole other level. One of my favorite things in San Juan is locals you have known for all of 15 minutes apologizing for how bad the beaches are* and then inviting you on a chinchorreo with 3 generations of extended family. *they honestly believe the beaches are not great, despite the fact that they have among the best urban beaches in the world.
  13. I love PR. San Juan in particular combines all the things I love about Galveston and Miami in one place. Maybe one of these days he can really hit the big time and fail to even field a slate of county office candidates like Matt Mackowiak.
  14. For the record, I don't think the joke will have a meaningful impact. But if Trump loses that guy is going to have to keep a low profile for a while because some very emotional people who don't think things through are going to be coming for his head.
  15. Nobody likes Ted Cruz, but especially since Greg Abbot’s presidential aspirations still live there are no depths to which he will not sink. Understand this- he 100% would have run this year had Trump not cleared the field and if Harris wins he seems himself as a potential front runner for the GOP nod in 2028.
  16. That’s a wild place to go in this thread, however. I wonder if Udo Kier ever met Donald Trump. Probably, right?
  17. Totally but Portland's got plenty as well. It's similar to Seattle/Tacoma except the Oregon ones are crazier.
  18. For those of you who aren't aware of this, it's not a joke, and it's not some fringe thing - 17 of the the 36 counties in Oregon, representing the eastern half of state have put secession measures on the ballot and 13 have approved them.
  19. The server appears to have crashed, but the crosstabs are below. Actually worth digging into with a sample this big: Dig in, nerds! IIRC this survey was pretty good in both 2016 and 2020
  20. tell me you've never spent any time in Oregon without telling me you've never spent any time in Oregon. I used to be a partner in a company In Portland. They don't just have conservatives in Portland, they have full on training with Militias on the weekends types up there. They happen to be a minority in Portland, but get really common outside the urban growth bnoundary.
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