I think EEAAO will win Best Picture, but Banshees was slightly better.
For Actor, I haven't seen The Whale because I wasn't interested enough to see it in a theater and I'm not paying $20 to stream it just because Aronofsky thinks all movies should be watched in theaters. I keep reading that people don't like the movie but like Fraser's performance (which is how I feel about Austin Butler in Elvis), and that it is a portrait of a fat person as imagined by thin people. At this point I'll probably pick Butler as the winner, since his performance really was great and biopics do well at the Oscars, but it's probably neck-and-neck between those two.
Michelle Yeo will win Actress for all the reasons everyone else has said, and also Cate Blanchett already has two acting Oscars. I thought she was great in Tar, though, even though the movie itself was meh and
So who's going to jump out of the audience and slap Jimmy Kimmel? Matt Damon? I kind of expect that to turn into an Oscars bit from here on out.