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Blotto

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Blotto

  1. Golf odds on majors are such a trip when you compare book to book. I can get Aberg at +1400 & +2470 on my two books. But Morikawa is +1200&+1316. Straka is +4500 & +5755. Those are not trivial differences like -115 vs. -120 on a pt spread.
  2. tank and bank
  3. I generally agree, but I am talking myself into an exception here in the short term. Reading a bit more about Trump's comments today, it doesnt shock me to learn that he plans on further manipulating markets by picking and choosing which companies have to pay tariffs: So he's basically announcing he will now be soliciting bribes or quid pro quo favors in exchange for protection. I bring this up because those companies will likely see a recovery beyond just what we saw today. There is no concrete explanation, just Trump's instinct. Take AAPL for example, while their 15% recovery up to $200 today is a start, it was trading at $250 in february. My guess is doubling the cost of Iphones in the US is not a complaint he wants to hear constantly, and as they have greater than 50% market share it would be a constant complaint. Plus he probably drops about 3 Iphones in his toilet each week. OTM AAPL calls might be an interesting gamble as they would skyrocket if Trump does his buddy Tim Apple a solid. Maybe $220 or $225 AAPL calls for 5/16 expiry. Anybody got other guesses as to who he would likely exempt? Tesla obviously, but they have bigger issues and I'm not sure it benefits them that much. Which CEOs that kiss his b-hole regularly import significantly from Gina?
  4. I just got my new passport in the mail over the weekend. As I was checking it out, I thought "it might be a while before I put this one to use." On the positive side of things, it took less than 4 weeks to get the thing, so at least that function of government appears to be business as usual.
  5. Yeah, Ive decided whenever shit gets real squirrely I just buy puts so I dont have to sell anything. I exit those option positions every week or so on the way down, bank the profits and buy more. I got lucky as fuck in that I sold basically all of my April 17 puts yesterday afternoon, banked about 60% of the profits and bought more puts for May/June. Those are all down 50% now, but I'll average down on those as well. Inexplicably a couple of my larger holdings (WMT and HACK) did so well in the rebound, that I finished $200 in the green today, lulz. Nothing got solved today, and arguably the China situation is getting worse, so imo the markets will creep back down once today's euphoria wears off. I have full confidence Trump will start wrecking shit again in a few days once everyone keeps pointing out it that it was donnie that caved, and absolutely none of this was necessary.
  6. Apparently Wulaw wants his children to be able to stitch up Nike's in a 105 degree sweatshop for 12 hours a day. beats a career in real estate I guess.
  7. He always caves when people call his bluff on this shit. His version of the USMCA was NAFTA with a few trivial differences. It happened in early February when Trudeau called his bluff. Trump backed down and said Trudeau agreed to a bunch of new shit, except EVERYTHING trudeau agreed to was announced the previous December. he's a fucking toddler and when you make a habit of throwing temper tantrums and then caving, its not particularly advantageous in future negotiations. The country is in no way better off than we were in February, except he wiped out trillions in net worth. Art of the deal....what a legend.
  8. Ah, so as of now, the orange fucktard swerved when he realized the rest of the world was ready to call his bluff. Got it.
  9. Ha, I was looking at the airlines specifically. Domestic travel will be down in a recession, and I expect international travel to the US to take a pretty big fucking hit.
  10. He has no strategy. He is a complete fucking buffoon that is also unfortunately dumb as fuck, and that didnt change over night. Its not like leaders of the world leaders are all now oohing and ahhing about his shrewd negotiating tactics as he flings his diaper shit all over the place. Nobody views him as an ally (maybe Bibi) and nobody will trust him. Simply put 125% tariffs on China will destroy our economy, is not sustainable, and everyone knows that. Nobody gives a fuck that we wont be taxing penguins more than 10% for the next 90 days.
  11. I guess we no longer care about the lbs of Fentanyl streaming across the canadian border every year. Think about our children Donnie.
  12. Lulz, what a complete fucking idiot. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Its like a 4 year old pretending to be an adult.
  13. Ah cool, will buy more puts. China is the one that counts.
  14. When god gives you termites......
  15. Lulz, like Trump gives a fuck about some law saying he cant throw Powell in jail for national security reasons.
  16. Lulz, you can tell that by some insta photos? My guess is that Cook is the same fucking idiot who got booted from two college teams and went to jail twice in February alone. If he can stay out of jail for the next couple of years, it may be evidence he isnt a fuckup. I wouldn't take that bet.
  17. Are you stuck in the 1980's? Beard showed up and there was zero talent left on the roster. At the beginning of his second season before he fucked up, he had a top 5 squad that notched wins over #2 and #7 in the first few weeks of the season. Even a mediocre coach like RT almost got that squad to the final four. Texas has money and the recruiting portal is a thing now. No reason for any rebuild to be a long term project in college sports today, especially hoops.
  18. Fucking legit lulz that anything takes precedence over Trumps idiocy or ego. If treasury market function and stability truly takes precedence over everything as you state, we would not have headed down this path.
  19. I'm not sure how anyone can categorically say this unless they have personally crawled through the software stack line by line. How do you know there isn't some line of code that creates a dependency on periodically checking in with a central code repository? Would it stupid as fuck, yes. Is the cybertruck stupid as fuck? Also yes.
  20. now, put on one of them ill beats for me..... Also they are starting to fill up jizz jars at a furious pace over there envisioning their future with Bucky https://texags.com/forums/7/topics/3537283
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