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Horn Under a Bad Sign

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Everything posted by Horn Under a Bad Sign

  1. Nixon created the EPA. In a full 180, Trump wants to gut it.
  2. Right wing social media "stars" being swatted?
  3. Here is a great link. In less than a minute and a half, Marco Rubio explains why we have to defend Ukraine. This is from 2014. Marco, of course, is a two-faced bitch. Glad we have the receipts.
  4. This is an incredible insightful piece about Trump and his negotiating style, by Prof. David Honig of Indiana University. I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don't know, I'm an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes. Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of "The Art of the Deal," a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you've read The Art of the Deal, or if you've followed Trump lately, you'll know, even if you didn't know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call "distributive bargaining." Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you're fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump's world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins. The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don't have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over. The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can't demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren't binary. China's choices aren't (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don't buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation. One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you're going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don't have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won't agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you're going to have to find another cabinet maker. There isn't another Canada. So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already. Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM - HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem. Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that's just not how politics works, not over the long run. For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here's another huge problem for us. Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it. From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn't even bringing checkers to a chess match. He's bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld. — David Honig
  5. If Alex Jones is murdered I hope it's by Ukranians.
  6. Darkness by Lord Byron I had a dream, which was not all a dream. The bright sun was extinguish'd, and the stars Did wander darkling in the eternal space, Rayless, and pathless, and the icy earth Swung blind and blackening in the moonless air; Morn came and went—and came, and brought no day, And men forgot their passions in the dread Of this their desolation; and all hearts Were chill'd into a selfish prayer for light: And they did live by watchfires—and the thrones, The palaces of crowned kings—the huts, The habitations of all things which dwell, Were burnt for beacons; cities were consum'd, And men were gather'd round their blazing homes To look once more into each other's face; Happy were those who dwelt within the eye Of the volcanos, and their mountain-torch: A fearful hope was all the world contain'd; Forests were set on fire—but hour by hour They fell and faded—and the crackling trunks Extinguish'd with a crash—and all was black. The brows of men by the despairing light Wore an unearthly aspect, as by fits The flashes fell upon them; some lay down And hid their eyes and wept; and some did rest Their chins upon their clenched hands, and smil'd; And others hurried to and fro, and fed Their funeral piles with fuel, and look'd up With mad disquietude on the dull sky, The pall of a past world; and then again With curses cast them down upon the dust, And gnash'd their teeth and howl'd: the wild birds shriek'd And, terrified, did flutter on the ground, And flap their useless wings; the wildest brutes Came tame and tremulous; and vipers crawl'd And twin'd themselves among the multitude, Hissing, but stingless—they were slain for food. And War, which for a moment was no more, Did glut himself again: a meal was bought With blood, and each sate sullenly apart Gorging himself in gloom: no love was left; All earth was but one thought—and that was death Immediate and inglorious; and the pang Of famine fed upon all entrails—men Died, and their bones were tombless as their flesh; The meagre by the meagre were devour'd, Even dogs assail'd their masters, all save one, And he was faithful to a corpse, and kept The birds and beasts and famish'd men at bay, Till hunger clung them, or the dropping dead Lur'd their lank jaws; himself sought out no food, But with a piteous and perpetual moan, And a quick desolate cry, licking the hand Which answer'd not with a caress—he died. The crowd was famish'd by degrees; but two Of an enormous city did survive, And they were enemies: they met beside The dying embers of an altar-place Where had been heap'd a mass of holy things For an unholy usage; they rak'd up, And shivering scrap'd with their cold skeleton hands The feeble ashes, and their feeble breath Blew for a little life, and made a flame Which was a mockery; then they lifted up Their eyes as it grew lighter, and beheld Each other's aspects—saw, and shriek'd, and died— Even of their mutual hideousness they died, Unknowing who he was upon whose brow Famine had written Fiend. The world was void, The populous and the powerful was a lump, Seasonless, herbless, treeless, manless, lifeless— A lump of death—a chaos of hard clay. The rivers, lakes and ocean all stood still, And nothing stirr'd within their silent depths; Ships sailorless lay rotting on the sea, And their masts fell down piecemeal: as they dropp'd They slept on the abyss without a surge— The waves were dead; the tides were in their grave, The moon, their mistress, had expir'd before; The winds were wither'd in the stagnant air, And the clouds perish'd; Darkness had no need Of aid from them—She was the Universe.
  7. I just wanted to remind everybody that this is what JD Vance looks like after he shaves.
  8. The Trump presidency is so awesome in its power that it can revoke somebody's Jew card!
  9. Deliberate manipulation of finances sounds like something that could get you Khashoggi'd.
  10. Gee, who would have thought that a 100-mile-long skyscraper/city in the middle of the desert was a really fucking stupid idea? https://www.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabias-100-mile-skyscraper-161431659.html
  11. One day I will learn to NOT click on the play video button. Today is not that day, apparently.
  12. Well, let's face it: Hungary, where Soros SAYS he's from, shares a border with Ukraine. Coincidence? I mean, how CONVENIENT is it that his birth records "supposedly" got lost in the "chaos" of the Nazis in World War II?
  13. One of the InfoWars reporters was murdered in Austin last night. His body was found at an apartment complex parking lot. Police have released no details. That hasn't kept Alex from invoking George Soros, though. He is a twisted, sick fuck.
  14. Been buying Ruta Maya coffee in the 2.2 .lb bag from HEB for years. It's been 17.98 all that time, including the last time I bought one three weeks ago. Went yesterday. 24.98 Fuck Trump. Fuck Trump especially in the goat ass if I end up having to resort to Maxwell House or fucking Folgers.
  15. Solution: hire Jimbo to coach the baseball team. Make him earn that salary.
  16. Holy fuck ... dude you are twisted. Here is the text of Putin's actual fucking interview. https://www.rev.com/transcripts/tucker-carlson-interviews-vladimir-putin-transcript Here's the BBC fact check of that interview. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68255302 I hope this helps, but I don't think it will.
  17. The Aggies are too stupid to realize that they're being used as placeholders as the best prospects wait for bluebloods to come knocking with their NIL deals.
  18. That is because Obama COULDN'T. The Republicans were obstructing him at every turn. As soon as he made any kind of move like that, they would have been screaming from the highest hills. He was effectively neutered to a large degree by Mitch McConnell's opposition to everything he ever tried to do. Fuck Mitch McConnell.
  19. Our DL room contains some large humans.
  20. Is it just me, or does Texas have an extraordinary number of 5-stars and the cream of the 4-stars coming in for official visits this June? The number feels like it's mind-blowingly high. I was saying we'd get 6-7 five stars last recruiting season but that number feels low this time around. I think we'll get at least 8 and maybe as many as 9 or 10. We are blowing the doors off the Aggies and Sooners.
  21. Canadians buy 76 million dollars worth of American whiskey every year and 965 million dollars worth of American alcoholic beverages every year. American breweries and distilleries are having a hard enough time as it is.
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