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bolverk

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by bolverk

  1. You and I are in total agreement. As I said in my initial post, The downstream effects depend on how long this pause lasts. In the short term, I don't think it really affects Europe's energy security, which is my immediate concern. In the mid-term, we've got substantial new capacity coming online. Long-term, yeah, that's an issue.
  2. Two separate arrests: 1) disorderly conduct and 2) reckless driving.
  3. Thanks for the thoughtful, logical response. I largely agree with everything you've posted. I'm not opposed at all to the idea that natural gas is a good, less-polluting bridge. What I would like to know is how many planned projects this decision affects. I understand that there's a significant timeline from planning to construction to operation -- almost a decade, I believe (maybe a slight exaggeration, but not by much). Would a project that's planned today be up and running by 2026 or even by the end of the decade? Is this something we should be concerned about in the short term vis-a-vis Europe's energy situation? Or is this something that's more long-term?
  4. There's probably a bunch of that. Put aside climate concerns for the sake of the argument, I honestly would like to know the real effects that this decision might have on exports and how it influences gas consumption abroad.
  5. I don't know a whole helluva lot about the industry but some. This announced "pause" does not affect existing facilities, those under construction, or those that are approved. According to the EIA, we have a grand total of 9 LNG facilities in the US. Two are import-only and located around Boston, and then these seven which have export capacity: ELBA ISLAND (Savannah, GA) Export (Kinder Morgan) CAMERON (Hackberry, LA) Export (Sempra Energy) CALCASIEU PASS (Hackberry, LA) Export (Venture Global) SABINE PASS (Sabine Pass, LA) Export (Cheniere) CORPUS CHRISTI (Portland, TX) Export (Cheniere) COVE POINT (Lusby, MD) Import/Export (Dominion Energy) FREEPORT (Freeport, TX) Import/Export (Freeport) Now, with just these seven, the US is now the largest LNG exporter in the world. Do we know how many are currently under construction? Do we know of others in the pipeline that have been approved? Where are they going? Any on the West Coast? In other words, how many more, regardless of this announced pause, are coming to market in the foreseeable future? How many scheduled projects are affected? And as for your comment about coal consumption: About 60% of global consumption is concentrated in East and SE Asia (50.5% of consumption is China alone). Another 11.3% of consumption is in India. In other words, 70% of all coal consumed is from just a handful of countries. What are we doing to encourage them to switch from coal to natural gas? We don't have any terminals on the West Coast. Are any of the planned ones that might be affected on the West Coast? Would building new terminals be enough to get them to switch? Are we (the US) committed to eliminating coal within our own energy mix? One final question, how else has Biden "fucked over the US Energy sector"? I mean, our oil production hit an all-time high last year.
  6. Man, I'm so sorry your buddy passed. It sucks to lose them.
  7. Long-term, it might be a concern, depending on how long the "pause" lasts. Short-term, it doesn't sound like a big deal. I don't think this administration, which has gone to bat for Europe more than any other since the end of the Cold War, will be turning its back on Europe. See the bolded section below. We're now the world's biggest exporter. Worries in Europe Over the White House Move to Delay Gas Terminals The Biden administration’s decision to review new liquefied natural gas projects for their impact on climate change could be a headache for overseas buyers. The Biden administration’s decision to delay approval of new liquefied natural gas terminals in the United States has been hailed as a major victory for environmental advocacy groups, but it is creating unease outside the United States about future energy supplies. “I think U.S. allies and trade partners will have some concerns about this, because in the past two years U.S. L.N.G. exports have been a real boon to global energy security,” said Ben Cahill, a senior fellow in the energy security and climate change program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a research institution in Washington. The Biden administration’s move on Friday to pause the permitting process for new liquefied natural gas export facilities is not expected to have an impact on global gas supplies soon. But it could create uncertainty, especially in Europe, which has only recently weathered a major energy shock after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago. Interruptions of gas supplies from Russia in 2022 contributed to soaring energy prices in Europe, especially for electric power, that hurt businesses and consumers and pushed governments to spend heavily to ease energy bills. Tankers full of liquefied gas from the United States helped mitigate what could have been a dire situation. Given this history, potential restrictions on gas supplies from the United States would be “a huge concern,” said Fredrik Persson, the president of BusinessEurope, the continent’s largest business group. Over the last two years, an enormous surge in liquefied gas exports from the United States helped Europe largely replace flows of natural gas from Russia, which had been Europe’s mainstay supplier of the fuel. According to Kpler, a research firm, U.S. gas exports to Europe more than doubled from 2021 to 2022, to about 52 million metric tons, and then increased modestly in 2023. These shipments have “been key in stopping Russia from forcing Europe down on its knees with using energy as a geopolitical weapon,” Mr. Persson said. The United States’ exports of liquefied natural gas have grown from almost scratch in recent years. It is now the world’s largest L.N.G. exporter, with more than 60 percent going to Europe last year. After the invasion of Ukraine, European countries including Germany, the Netherlands and Greece scrambled to build new L.N.G. terminals and lock up supply deals with the United States. Doubts regarding the “stability” of liquefied gas supplies from the United States could put such plans at risk, “raising concerns of potential further price volatility” Didier Holleaux, president of Eurogas, an industry group, said in a statement. Germany’s economy ministry said Friday that it was monitoring the situation in the United States “closely,” but declined to comment further. The security of the gas supply remains stable, the ministry said through a spokeswoman, adding that Germany now receives most of its natural gas from Norway. To be clear, in making this move, the Biden administration seems unlikely to jeopardize supplies to customers outside the United States this year or anytime soon. The decision does not apply to current exports, and analysts say it will not stop a group of new L.N.G. projects that have already been approved and are under construction. These are likely to substantially boost the capacity of the United States to export gas in the coming years. The administration says it wants time to determine whether additional L.N.G. projects, ones still on the drawing boards, would be in the public interest. Such analysis would include weighing the greenhouse gas emissions that future projects would produce, as well as their impact on the economy and national security. In a statement, President Biden said the pause on approvals “sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time.” The Biden administration appears to be trying to reassure countries that have come to rely on U.S. natural gas. This pause will “not impact our ability to supply our allies in Europe, Asia or other recipients of already authorized U.S. exports,” the Department of Energy said Friday in a statement. Analysts say that what may unsettle allies, especially in Europe, is the message that they may no longer be able to count so firmly on supplies from the United States in coming years. “What this really highlights for Europe is, you are running out of options,” said Henning Gloystein, a director for energy and climate change at Eurasia Group, a political risk firm. While Russia does supply Europe with liquefied natural gas now, European leaders want to reduce those flows. The eastern Mediterranean looks doubtful as a major source in the future because of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Aside from the United States, the other likely major producer of additional liquefied natural gas is Qatar, a tiny Middle Eastern emirate. Mr. Gloystein said L.N.G. from the United States was particularly attractive for European buyers because the shipping distances from North America are relatively short and the terms that American suppliers provide are much more flexible than those of most other sources. For instance, they usually allow a buyer to easily resell gas, whereas other gas powers like Qatar often impose restrictions. “The U.S. is the one that matters,” he said.
  8. I watched both last night, and while it took more concentration in the first, by the second, they became much easier to keep straight.
  9. The EU's threats to take away voting rights from Hungary were supposedly separate from the NATO thing. Those were due to Hungary trying to block EU aid to Ukraine. The two issues, of course, are tied at the hip.
  10. Probably the former. In my opinion, it was always going to happen but they just needed to be pissy about it first. Turkey did get some concessions out of Sweden first.
  11. Sweden is set to join NATO by March (fingers crossed): https://apnews.com/article/nato-sweden-turkey-hungary-enlargement-599b08d2d48b12b9e3bb19856a1d78ad BRUSSELS (AP) — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg expressed optimism on Friday that Sweden could be ready to join the military organization by March, after receiving positive signals this week from holdouts Hungary and Turkey. Sweden, along with its neighbor Finland, set aside decades of military nonalignment after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 to seek protection under NATO’s collective defense umbrella. Finland has since joined, and it along with the other 30 allies must all agree for Sweden to join. But Turkey and Hungary have held up proceedings. “Sweden’s entry into NATO will make the whole alliance stronger,” Stoltenberg told reporters as he provided details about talks this with week with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and noted new developments in Turkey. “The message I have received from Budapest is that the parliament will reconvene at the end of February, so we have to wait for that. But I’m absolutely confident, and I count on Hungary,” Stoltenberg said. Initially, Hungary gave no clear reason for the delays, and Orbán had insisted that his government wouldn’t be the last to endorse Sweden. But the tone toward Stockholm hardened, as the European Commission refused to allow Hungary access to EU funds over democratic backsliding. Budapest accused Swedish politicians of telling “blatant lies” about the state of Hungary’s democracy. Orbán, who has broken ranks with NATO allies by adopting a Kremlin-friendly stance toward Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said Tuesday that he had invited Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to Budapest to discuss “future cooperation in the field of security and defense as allies and partners.” Unless an emergency session of parliament is called to debate Sweden’s bid, the assembly is due to sit on Feb. 26. To let Sweden join, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan imposed a series of conditions including a tougher stance on groups that Turkey considers to be threats to its security, like Kurdish militants and members of a network he blames for a failed coup in 2016. Separately, but linked to his approval, Erdogan insisted on a fighter-jet deal with the United States. On Tuesday, Turkish lawmakers finally held a vote on the issue and ratified Sweden’s accession protocol by 287 votes to 55. The Turkish government finalized the step Thursday by publishing the measure in an official gazette. Stoltenberg welcomed the fact that on Thursday night Erdogan “gave his signature to the decision of the parliament, so now all decisions are in place in Turkey.” Sweden will become NATO’s 32nd member once Hungary completes its procedures and the “instruments of ratification” of all allies have been received by the U.S. State Department. Edit:
  12. bolverk

    Measles

    Not from Clovis, but I did grow up on Taco Villa.
  13. I listened to "We Have Ways of Making You Talk", which is a podcast that does deep dives on WWII that I subscribe to. I listened to their interview with John Orloff, MotA's creator and author of two BoB episodes, about the making of the show. Links to wherever you get your podcasts for those interested: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/masters-of-the-air/id1457552694?i=1000642849103 Google podcast
  14. ED junket. Interpret that as you will.
  15. It's disgusting beyond all words, but let's please be more careful about tweets. This one's misleading in that it implies the case was in Texas with the mention of Abbott. It was not - although I wouldn't be surprised if there were cases like this here. But this happened in Michigan.
  16. Among his various shenanigans, this one stands out: On January 5, 2021, Feuerstein spoke at a rally in D.C. where he and a number of other anti-abortion pastors, including Pastors Ken Peters and Jon Schrock, spoke in support of Donald Trump's claims that election fraud happened during the 2020 United States presidential election. During his speech, Feuerstein specifically talked about Mike Pence's role in the following day's counting and claimed he would not refuse to certify the election "like the little coward, the little swamp monster, the little slimeball he is.”[24] Feuerstein would go on to condemn Senators Ben Sasse, Mitt Romney, and Mitch McConnell for allowing the "steal" to happen. Feuerstein concluded his speech by saying, "It is time for war! And let us stop the steal!"[25] [26] As a result of his participation in this rally, Feuerstein was suspected of inciting the Insurrection attempt that happened the following day, as many of the attendees at the January 5 rally were arrested during the following day's events. In a televised interview with Newsmax, Feuerstein confirmed that he was contacted by the FBI and was under investigation. He's also another interloper bringing more batshit to our already unstable state.
  17. You haven't happened to have seen this guy wandering around, have you?
  18. He's only looking to protect his fellow Texans from the "invasion". Just don't fucking ask him for any water, okay?
  19. I obviously don't speak Russian, but that man sure seemed traumatized.
  20. The court said that all parties to the conflict are bound by international humanitarian law, which prohibits the use of human shields. The court also specifically called for the "immediate and unconditional release" of all hostages. So, to answer your question, yes. Here's the text of their order, which remains preliminary, as they have not yet ruled on the question of genocide brought to the court by South Africa. The Reuters article cited by Inka says that may take years to months as evidence is collected. https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240126-ord-01-00-en.pdf
  21. The same applies to the economy going into the shitter the day of Biden's election, prior to the inauguration. Of course, plenty of Democrats reversed their judgment as soon as the inauguration was held, but their appraisal also continued upward (logically) as the world opened back up with the vaccine.
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