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cactusflinthead

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by cactusflinthead

  1. He said 3 months and he was coming back. I guess we'll see.
  2. @immamac Three months and we can expect to do this again?
  3. Kinda. He's losing his fastball. The act is getting tired and he can't see it. People are bored at his rallies. We had to invent the term 'sanewashing' because of his incessantly crazed pronouncements. He's not fooling everyone.
  4. Link to this one in there https://disorderup.substack.com/p/moby-dick-is-a-useless-guide-to-polling?publication_id=1332463&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-share&isFreemail=true&triedRedirect=true Ingesting polls feels like an opportunity to define a variable: who will win the election? This tendency, I think, was exacerbated in 2008, when two things happened: a majority of the country wanted a change after the Bush years, and a guy blogging under the handle Poblano (later revealing himself as Nate Silver) started to make predictions, based on polling and demographic analysis, so accurate that they suggested some kind of second sight. The people badly wanted something, and a wizard turned up out of nowhere and told them they would get it, and lo it was so. There are other factors, of course, but I think most stem from those two, and 2008 ushered us into a new era of Celebrity Nerds Who Can Tell The Future. Poblano. Wait a damn minute. I FUCKING REMEMBER NOW. HE WAS ON THE GREAT ORANGE SATAN https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2023/04/25/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-abc-layoffs/ Readers only knew him as “poblano.” A baseball statistician by day, the mysterious writer started dipping his toes in the political waters in a data-filled Daily Kos blog post published at 2:10 a.m., Nov. 1, 2007, titled “HRC Electability in Purple States.” https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2007/10/31/405019/- Here is the headline: Clinton does a little better than Barack Obama and John Edwards in the Blue states. There is little difference between the three candidates in Red states. But Obama and Edwards do MUCH better than Clinton in Purple states. Numbers below the break for the math wonks amongst us. Feels like five lifetimes ago.
  5. Ok, you're even in here now. safe space ought to be safe.
  6. I knew Trump was going to get the GOP nomination when he first went off on Mexicans. He opened wide the vile pipe of hate. As if the air went out of the room like one of those nasty firebombs they have now, the rest of the candidates were vaporized. Because he went there. Open the pipe and let the racism and hate spew. It wasn't planned. No one told him to say it. The ones that had been forced to hide this hate could now revel in it. It's still not shut off. They want to round up enemies. He wants to hurt people and doesn't care if they die in the process. The hate has repulsed many people who in previous elections were dependable GOP voters. I don't know if there's much besides voting against Donald Trump that I will ever find common ground with Dick Cheney. I can't prove a negative, but that's got to be a tiny circle. I don't know where we go after this. This is not the end. I hope
  7. TB and Tor are only available on Fubo and Sling? Wtf NHL? Do you even want people to see your games?
  8. If @immamac gave us a thread that looked like this there would be much bitching. https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getElectionEVDates.do
  9. Ok where can I find a breakdown for today in Texas Counties? I heard today that Denton cracked 40k after 35 k in 2020. Fact checking
  10. He has further wisdom to share in Board Discussion. I'm going to agree with @wildcat09. It's immortal. Or 4doors if you prefer that handle. He's starting to show his colors.
  11. Denton County Elections office. 10-15 minutes.
  12. You can say that in CR. Or wait a minute... Are you giving us a demonstration of how CR sucks?
  13. I wondered where else you were leaking rep. Y'know if you actually made the effort to formulate some sort of defense of Trump or the GOP there's a greater than zero chance that you could engage in a conversation. Chrispy tobacconist got away with it repeatedly. There's a shelf life to bullshit so it is a somewhat flimsy existence but you get a little rep and then decide to be a shitass. Has this worked out for you?
  14. Asked the people at the Denton County Elections office where I usually go vote if it was pretty quiet. I meant if there had been any friction those two had to handle. Yes, quiet but busy. 40k in Denton Co. That's up from 35k in 2020. Overhead old lady poll worker say there were a lot of young people. The offspring and I got it done on day one.
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