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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. I like it--looks like those shots of west Boston 20 years after cordyceps on The Last of Us. Plus with Mexico City air quality.
  2. But it wasn’t hotter than expected; pretty much every major media source or macro pundit said it MET expectations. The only really shock has been the jobs report, which Habib claims was the result of a methodology change (without corroborative support), and everyone else said “so what, it’s one report.” There’s something different about market reactions in the past year that seems to result in higher volatility.
  3. I’ve been consuming every macro and mortgage podcast/analysis article I can get my hands on and nothing seems to adequately explain the post jobs report results on rate pricing (aside from the obvious, it’s been shitty). I’m likely to be eating a lot of crow having sold “we’ll refinance you by June 2023” for the last six months to all our closed borrowers.
  4. We've had very good luck finding tenants using Zillow (plus the website can incorporate background checks if you prefer not to fool with it separately). Best piece of advice I would give you is pay for a good photographer. If you're looking through self-published rental listings you'll note a vast difference in quality and you're presumably looking for a tenant that is looking for signals that you're not a cheapass landlord.
  5. Yeah, I'm going to have to disagree here--I've lived in San Antonio and Houston and Austin is far prettier. Even our "hood", so to speak, is way nicer than the more downtrodden parts of Houston and SA.
  6. Horse people are pretty bad, but then I grew up in the country.
  7. Again, this is conjecture, but I think Watson’s election over Israel may be understood as a re-establishment of control by the chamber of commerce types. They will want someone in the City Manager role who is professional, can herd the cats on the council, and can be the bad guy with city staff if needed (the latter appears where Cronk tripped up). I *think*, from a governance perspective, Austin may be kind of a weird city to run (although they probably all have their special characteristics). UT wants to be left alone, the state wants to point fingers but not actually fix anything, and the tech companies don’t have the kind of community ties that capital interests in previous generations led to the noblesse oblige. With 10/1 we have a particularly fragmented power structure and no one has really figured out how to govern effectively through it.
  8. I want to hear @Bozo_Casanova's analysis, as well, but my conjecture is that we've had a mayor for 8 years that has the attention span of a honey bee and a council that, for a number of reasons, both institutional and otherwise, is made up of the politically inept. Their main achievement is rarely agreeing on anything substantive; if you had a skilled city manager this might actually be beneficial (as the council would be hands off), but in the hands of the unskilled (or indecisive) it creates a struggle for power between city staff and the city manager that leads to inaction, conflict, or action in directions opposite the will of the people (as reflected by council preferences).
  9. Between this and @Bozo_Casanova's frequent condemnation of their dereliction of duty, it would seem there is some severe chain of command issues.
  10. I just watched that Youtube video prompted by your post Go Full Bernard Here I'm really starting to question whether police, absent an escalation force (SWAT) should be able to carry fire arms at all.
  11. @Bozo_Casanovawhats the gossip around firing Cronk?
  12. LCHorn

    Breakfast places

    My most recent go-to’s that are downtown proximate are Sour Duck market, Cenote, and Paperboy. I eat at Counter Cafe every week but it’s for the burger and not the pancakes (although the latter are good).
  13. There’s more of a correlation when they worsen than when they go down. It’s the kind of thing that makes rookie LO’s go “what the fuck, I thought the market was improving?!?!” Basically, the big banks in control of the money don’t immediately pass on the pricing improvement.
  14. Not saying you’re wrong on the jobs numbers (I presume you’re citing Barry Habib), but I think it’s interesting that the Eurodollar podcast guys didn’t mention this in their Tuesday broadcast. Instead they described it as an anomaly.
  15. I think they are going to do it if their internals show market value deterioration (the fact they haven’t with all their data might support an argument that they don’t believe real property values have fallen).
  16. This-I read that the average age of someone on the mortgage side is 48 and that’s with the Loan Depot’s and Quicken’s of the world churning through a thousand 22 year old midwestern community college grads annually. Appraiser average age has got to be in the 50’s, maybe late 50’s. Plus you don’t age out of it like those of us in sales.
  17. Just out of curiosity @henrygandorf, but are you not in conversation with Netflix about your show? It seems like they’ve looked at their content demands, budget restrictions, and made a big switch to reality tv production. Plus if you hit on an idea it’s easy to translate it to other markets (“El Piso Es Lava!”). Anyway, I used to share your opinion that content is king but now I think it’s contextual. Content didn’t help Crackle, YouTube TV (even with Google power behind it), and AMC and their assorted platforms are struggle bus (and if I was having this conversation 5 years ago I would have made the bet that niche content platforms like Sundance and Shudder would triumph or become “channels” in a larger ecosystem than AMC Networks, a la cable). TLDR; I don’t think Netflix is going down, even if they did give Ryan Murphy and Shonda Rhimes all the money. Here’s a prediction-I bet they buy Peloton before the year is out or someone else does and they create programming to compete with it (in case they don’t want in the hardware business)-also, credit where it’s due, I first heard this proposed by Derek Thompson on his Ringer podcast.
  18. Just wanted to echo this; I only found the series (The Magicians) a "B" effort but that episode was amazing and elevated the whole series.
  19. True, but you and I both know that protecting originators is somewhere near the bottom of their list of priorities 😉
  20. I'm just reaching here, but I bet it's to support the secondary market; the LLPA's on cash-out refi's are terrible, the improving market conditions are destroying the value of servicing rights, and perhaps banks will be a little more eager to do those loans if they can guarantee themselves 12 months of interest.
  21. I wouldn't be overly concerned, but if you are, I also don't think it would be hard to find another realtor willing to match on a .5% commission rebate. That's a pretty typical "friends" discount and particularly so in this slower market.
  22. Before everyone piles on I’m pretty sure @Wulaw Hornis referring to loan to value, not DTI.
  23. We’re not giving him $350k. If that’s the math a sure thing like Ja’Tavion is going to be super expensive to keep past the May transfer window.
  24. I’ve posted this upthread because I’ve done loans for several folks in the radio business over the last 10-15 years and have some insight into wages. I don’t think the problem is the content model; they know far, far more about their audience than a layman might presume. It’s just that their audience is approaching social security age (the number quoted to me was that the average listener in Austin for over the air radio is 58), NPR captures something like 80% of the listening audience, and no one really wants to pay for advertising to this demographic group. The real question to me is whether there’s a market for an ad supported rival to NPR. Obviously it’s not drooling slack-jaws like Todd and Don.
  25. It’s not bourbon but I love introducing people to Balcones Rumble just because it’s such an unusual flavor profile. I’ve had people both love and hate it; both results I appreciate more than another bourbon with a very similar flavor complexion to 20 other bourbons on the market.
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