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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. It sounds like what you're saying is that you expect (and desire) greater price volatility for residential real estate; am I understanding that correctly? I think you're thinking that the seller's preference for a certain amount of profit dictates more selling decisions that it does. In my experience, sellers typically are selling because they need the money for something else. Maybe it's different for institutional investors who have the ability to write off portfolio losses but they can't lose money indefinitely, either.
  2. That’s been the curse since the Chance Mock days and white linebackers committing early always seem the most egregious. That’s one reason I really wanted to sign Drew Sanders-I think Texas is due.
  3. This is the kind of thing that I'd love to go back and retake macro (hat tip to Alfred Norman and ECO 302H, to whom I called my shot on a test, writing "I will ace the final" and then got a "C"). My read on low interest rates and what's normal is that they are a) politically advantageous to incumbent elites (both on the public and private side) and b) somewhat a product of low growth world wide driven by demographic changes. I don't think you can divorce our monetary system from the collapsing birth rate in China, for example, and that wasn't a consideration in prior decades. This is also why I think we'll return to slow GDP growth and more accommodative monetary policy as the Covid stimulus gets further drained out of the economy. I also think this is one reason why the FAANG firms (all of this is connected is my thesis) were so quick to a reduction in force; there is just nothing coming on the horizon that appears to excite capital and Chat GPT/Bard appear poised to destroy old businesses, not build a new one (which isn't great for growth, either). As long as I'm making predictions, I am hopeful for a Ukraine peace bump if they can win or reach a peace agreement sometime in the next couple of years (good for growth if bad for mortgage rates). I'm also somewhat hopeful that the Inflation Reduction Act incentives do SOMETHING, as that's the kind of thing I'd be urging policy makers to support if I was worried about creating growth without air dropping money again.
  4. I've not read any campaign after action reports that support campaign blundering, but I do think she couldn't find a lane and felt the "Bern". Between her, Biden, and Bernie there's only so much Democratic support for old white people and I don't think it's an accident that the candidate most appealing to African American voters (of the three) won the primary. I think Warren did about as well she could have expected to in this modern, media saturated environment (it's far harder to have a "wow, look at Clinton playing the sax on Arsenio" moment because in 2023 we already know everything there is to know that's interesting about a candidate in the first 48 hours of the campaign).
  5. And that sounds EXACTLY like something Grendel would write!
  6. I've been convinced that Grendel and Lobo were the same person.
  7. I still think stealing signs is NOT cheating.
  8. My only contribution to this is I once made hummus from scratch for a dinner party using Alon Shaya's recipe and EVERY single guest complained the next day of extreme flatulence. If you'd to repeat the experiment you can find his recipe here.
  9. A couple of observations from the box score: We threw 34 more pitches than they did despite the fact that the Twins had 4 more AB's--our batters aren't working the counts worth a shit.
  10. Without Altuve, Brantley, and Yuli we've lost a ton of strike-out avoidance.
  11. My prediction is he signs with whoever offers him the most money.
  12. Leon needs to show he can hit AAA pitching.
  13. Fwiw, both Correa and Conforto (the latter my favored free agent pickup over Brantley) both have mid .500’s OPS, obviously small sample sizes for everyone. I also supported taking a flyer on Bellinger and he’s doing better than everyone mentioned with a .650 OPS. TLDR: maybe we need to see more than 1.5 series of data before we jump to conclusions.
  14. I installed Kwikset locks on our rental doors (we have two rent houses) so I can re-key them without getting a locksmith. I mean, everything comes down to money, right? More eyeballs=more chance to find a better quality tenant=most higher quality tenants will pay more. We've been doing this for six or seven years now and the biggest lessons we've learned: 1. Get GREAT photographers. 2. All of our tenants have been young couples--we're not selecting for this but it's been the tenant pool in the Domain area where the houses are 3. This is kind of an art, but I prefer to price is under the most expensive in the area but get close to it ($100 or so a month away). My pictures are going to do the heavy lifting but I'm going to want to convey that we're a better quality house than the cheap ones but less expensive that the most expensive option. 4. Leases terminate in May or June but no later (this is big, we've had leases terminate in October and couldn't find a tenant for three months).
  15. We use Zillow for our rentals-it makes it super easy for the applicant plus you can save your pictures and the copy of your ad for the next time it’s vacant. I’ve said this previously, but hire a good photographer. Just because you’re have 100% control over the listing on Zillow shouldn’t convince that you can just take pics on an iPhone. It’s super easy to tell which landlords have a professional photographer and which do not and I think makes an enormous difference in online curb appeal.
  16. At least in Austin, I’m convinced you can’t get hired as a transaction coordinator unless you can prove you failed your TREC licensing exam. I don’t know what agents pay them per transaction but if it’s more than $100 it’s a big waste of money.
  17. I think there's a very realistic scenario in which Maldy is a third catcher before the end of the season.
  18. Jesus, that's the best use case for the spoiler html I've seen this year.
  19. LCHorn

    Bars

    It’s fine but it’s not going to be someplace you like so much you’ll be bringing out of towners there (in other words, you’ll check it off your list and find better, less exclusive options elsewhere).
  20. I've been evaluating daily drinkers by how I feel in the morning and it's somewhat surprising that some of the better regarded bourbons leave me with more of a hangover. Is that just a proof thing or does anyone else experience that? That Larceny, for example, is fine in the evening but leaves me feeling pretty gross even if I don't drink enough to feel inebriated.
  21. Echoing @Gil Bang, sounds like your realtor isn't great with managing expectations. Are they new to the industry or did you pick them because they are related to you?
  22. Well, I think your intuition is correct. Sometimes there's not a better answer besides the originator is probably a dumbass and once his employer discovers he's made a deal where they lose money he'll be out of job but that doesn't help you in the moment. Typically, what I'll do in those situations is to try to 4D chess that thing and get another lender involved ("look, you don't have to take my word for it, get a third quote"). You're not winning a deal if you're high by 2%, anyway, and the hail mary is to try to destroy the other lender's credibility.
  23. I can't speak to what UWM or your competitor is offering but I am going head to head on a lot of new construction. Is the other lender in house for the builder?
  24. That looks amazing, thanks for sharing. No one took it on because the asshole that owned the property wouldn't sell it. I know Marco Garcia of Curra's took a run at it, among others. I did the same back when I lived on the east side (I'm sure I told this story already on the old site). I tracked down the owner just to inquire and was quoted a price of $2m. I was a little stunned because it was on TCAD for $200K at the time. My revenge was to contact the county tax assessor and inquire why commercial property was being taxed at $200K when the owner thought it was worth 10x but they responded that they only re-evaluate values at the owner's request. Anyway, my vision was to go real low cost build-out (except for reclaimed wood floors, I wanted them to have that awesome pier and beam knock when you walked), no AC, no food, just cold beer sold by the bottle, TV's and floor fans (you'd sweat by design), kind of a C Hunt's or Rabbits but more enclosed (bear in mind this was 10+ years ago when most of that 6th street stretch of bars was very working class). $1 off beers if you showed a 78702 DL's address.
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