Happy New Year You Surly Bastards!
Everything posted by LCHorn
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
I generally agree with your takes but excusing Muslim Americans voting for a greater evil, in essence out of petulance, for a lesser evil is ethically indefensible.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Well, it might be better to say that MY presumption about his handicapping is suspect š So whatās your prediction?
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Thatās one reading of it. I think thereās more chaos in the markets at present than one explanation can account for, i.e., thereās little consensus about what comes next. The immediate, post 9/18 deterioration in bond pricing wasnāt due to inflation concerns, it was reassurance the the Fed would be more accommodative and that the risk/reward balance favored equities (which depressed bond demand). War in the Middle East, oil price shock risk, the election, inflation coming down globally, seasonal adjustments are all in the strew pot, I just donāt know how you tease one out from another. My old boss wrote a blog post a couple of days ago and he thinks the rates will fall after the election*, but it might be later in Q1 before we get back to where we were 9/12-9/17. *he actually didnāt write this part, but I bet heās counting on the Dems losing the Senate, House and President both go Dem, and a divided Congress reassures markets that fiscal policy will be restrained.
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The Penguin. HBO
Not like we hang, but I bet Farrell loves it and will happily cash Warner Bros checks as long as they want to produce it.
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I was WAY too young when I watched that movie.
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2024-2025 Houston Rockets thread - Prepare for Liftoff š [Now Featuring Kevin Durant]
Thatās a big commitment to Sengun and a certain style of play.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
On the bright side, if youāre like me you have eight hours of continuing education to spend contemplating how the rest of 2024 is going to go.
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Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: Boulevard of Broken Bagmen
If shaving wasnāt required when I was in high school I would have looked like Billy Gibbons at graduation.
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I was WAY too young when I watched that movie.
Probably better places in the unpopular movie opinion thread, but Fire in the Sky has one of the unsung all-time best casts.
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2024 Senate Elections
Iāve been thinking about what a post Harris win Democratic Party focuses on, particularly if the goal is to pull back in men, and I think they need to go very strong into pro-labor, strengthen unions, etc., even if it makes the Wall Street donor class queasy. You can build into the longtime Republican derived plans like job re-training, apprenticeships, lowering or eliminating professional licensing requirements. A lot of these arenāt federal but the party needs to promote the vision. Theyāve got to figure out a message that appeals outside of urban and educated population centers.
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2024 Senate Elections
I have my own personal thing with Navy SEALs (we were in the same AO in Iraq and they were total glory whores and unfortunately had the command pull to get mission priority) but it seems like the bulk of their veterans who have run for office are kind of shit bags. Sheehy, Greitens, Crenshaw, Van Orden.
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I was WAY too young when I watched that movie.
I bet I was six or seven when I first saw Excalibur and the sex scene between Uther in full plate mail and Igraine. It was a long time before I realized thatās not really how one performs the act. Also had parents who didnāt really police watching HBO back when it was the only premium cable available and saw pretty much all of the late 70ās/early 80ās horror before I was in second grade.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
The best thing about voting there is I can pick up paint and whiskey in a single stop.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Iāve been in a bit of a funk since @Bozo_Casanova posted that Nate Silver piece (really just that one Ruy Teixeira link from 2022 that talks about how the Dem party isnāt able to talk to the working class because I know itās true), but hereās mine. Forget the candidates, letās just talk campaigns and the electorate. The HUGE money advantage held by the Harris campaign and the fact itās being run by folks who are still traumatized by 2016 makes me believe they are taking nothing for granted. Plouffe was on with Dan Pfeiffer on PSA (so the wonkiest of the boys with one of the Harris dominant strategists) and Plouffe admitted internals were much tighter than the public polls. If we take that as true, which campaign is in a position to maximize that? The Harris campaign may not have a simple, digestible message. It might be swimming against economic tides. But, one of those fundamentals of politics is that it is SO powerful to have an actual human, a campaign representative, ask for your vote. The Harris campaign has the money and the logistical support to make that ask. The other part I come back to is that Trump has done absolutely nothing in the last four years to sell himself outside of his MAGA core of support. If heās picking someone up itās not because they like the candidate, itās a protest vote, and Iām hopeful that that sense of dissatisfaction is getting picked up by the polls, but itās not the same thing as casting the vote. Voters have had their opportunity to vent, so to speak, and some of those Trump voters will now be okay with voting for Harris.
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Unpopular movie opinions
Finally had a good one. Blood In, Blood Out is up there with Goodfellas as the best crime film of the 90's, despite the fact it's truly cheesy at times.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
This is probably a decade ago, but I did a loan for someone who owned five McDonalds and they took home about $5k-$6k a month from each (so under $360K annually). It's a good living but owning one wouldn't get you there (at the time, I'm sure there's also better locations than others).
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2024-2025 Houston Rockets thread - Prepare for Liftoff š [Now Featuring Kevin Durant]
I donāt see Tari really having any trade value. I donāt know why you move him unless you need the roster spot.
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Cruz vs Allred - 2024
Do you reckon thatās an issue that will de-energize Cruz voters?
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Eggnog Time, Mother Fuckers
On the shelf today at Central Market next to the Foodie Freebie eggs and butter.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
I like how the media has gotten their fill of ābut her interviews!ā and now can finally move on to health concerns.
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2024-2025 Houston Rockets thread - Prepare for Liftoff š [Now Featuring Kevin Durant]
Iām a Green hater because inefficient basketball makes me want to vomit, but he was on fire last night and super, super efficient. Basically all his shots were from 3, he was hitting better than 50% of them, and he picked up four shooting fouls and hit 7 of 8 three throws, scoring 30 on 16 shots with zero turnovers. If he can do 80% of that consistently heās going to be worth a max deal. Heās worse defensively, but offensively thatās prime Ray Allen.
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Bourbon
I hope you spent less than I did. Now I canāt bring myself to drink it.
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What the fuck is wrong with you, Austin?
True, but that was a different era and the elites from the SOS machine are old. You know Matt Mackowiack-heās pretty much proof that thereās plenty of money sloshing around to be spent on local issues. You just need someone that can mobilize it and isnāt an asshole.
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What the fuck is wrong with you, Austin?
I suspect @Bozo_Casanova will respond that the moneyās been spent, the plans are there, but the neighborhood groups are against and there isnāt any individual stakeholder group with sufficient support to act as a political counter-weight. More from me, but I think this is a downside of 10-1. Maybe the new city manager can build some consensus, weāll see.
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What the fuck is wrong with you, Austin?
There was a Reddit thread on this yesterday and my straw poll was responses was something like 90% against. I was a little surprised because the posters there seem to hate anyone with money, landlords, etc., and supporting day care for the underprivileged would seem to be consistent with an opposite view. Personally, I think Iād be more supportive if it was the city and not the county administering it. I know we complain about CofA shenanigans but the county taxes make up a huge chunk of our property tax bill and they have far, far less scrutiny over it.