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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. Hell, with the volatility lately we might get 50 or 60 bps back by this afternoon. I miss the good old days when + or - 15 seemed good or bad.
  2. I think this is either a) Rosenthal making shit up or b) really investigatory by the Astros. I think they are looking for a defensive upgrade over Alvarez in LF and Contreras doesn't help there.
  3. I wonder if that's connected to some of the Worthy smoke (i.e., there's a little "we could have had Addison for less than Worthy?!?!?" buyer's remorse on behalf of the UT NIL pioneering donors).
  4. That’s going to kill someone. Might be the receiver, might be the giver…
  5. I’m willing to make a CTJ style bet that they pause at 5.00% through at least March.
  6. Btw, this might be more appropriate on the inflation thread but I’m listening to the Eurodollar podcast from Monday and they were talking about post “high” Fed market reaction (I.e., Powell sees the markets react favorably to the CPI, presuming the Fed pivot is imminent, and immediately finds a microphone so he can threaten a Fed fund rate of 7% and scare the markets back down). Anyway, it was ironic because that appears exactly what happened today. One other interesting note from the same podcast was that if the inflation rate reduction going forward matches the past three months then we should be back to low 2’s by summer.
  7. Well, we’re down 42 bps as of noon today (that’s market deterioration) so congrats Jimmy, you jinxed it 😉
  8. I’m not going to profess insider knowledge here but I don’t think either Tulsa or Memphis possesses the kind of cultural cache attractive to the bohemian artist crowd that seems to precede the technologist/urban renewal/white hipster type that pioneer the “boom” an investor is looking for. I actually think the future is continued accumulation of talent and wealth to super cities.
  9. Haha, I’m usually skimming Surly on a phone and not paying attention to who writes what, but every time I see someone advocate violence upon Maton I know it’s you.
  10. Go-to moves for AUS approvals: 1. Play with the income to improve ratios 2. Play with the debts (exclude, don’t show as paid off). 3. Play with assets (doesn’t just help on GUS although the latter loves extra assets) 4. I know we all hate it but try LP One other idea, presuming you’re not doing this already, is to do an income calc off most recent 24 months rather than most recent plus 2021 and 2020 or however you have it figured (presuming last 10.5 months are superior and help your average). Fannie will also allow an asset depletion calculation if your borrower has money in savings in sufficient excess it’s helpful. As far as non-QM, most of them will have a bank statement option and that can be taken to 50%. There’s also DSCR and no ratio loans (essentially on the collateral) but the borrowers will need to be prepared to put some money down (minimum 25%)
  11. I would bullshit the income to get the DTI down to no higher than 45% just to be sure it’s income related (obviously you can’t submit it that way). If you already this and I’m unclear from your description then report that back. Have you considered non-QM?
  12. Sports media is pure manufactured controversy. I’m getting The Athletic now with my NY Times sub and I hadn’t realized how some of the most egregious offenders had all migrated to the same place. It’s only missing a Jose de Jesus Ortiz to really hit rock bottom.
  13. Click may have been more intentional than presumed here. He should be in a great position to serve as an assistant GM for someone for a year and see what comes open. Maybe he considered that preferable to another year of Crane. Even unemployed his resume is going to have “reigning world champion” at the top.
  14. I get him and Elias confused all the time and always liked Fast since he wrote for Baseball Prospectus. I think Fast is a level or two far away and needs to be an assistant GM first. Presumably being GM of the Astros is the pinnacle or close to it; we shouldn’t have to hire someone that needs to grow into the job.
  15. I want Mike Elias. The Orioles can promote Megdal in his stead, everyone goes home happy.
  16. UFCU stole one from us two weeks ago when the market improved by 50 bps two days after we had come to terms and locked the loan. They offered a free float down which is what sealed the deal, grumble, grumble.
  17. Haha, this is what I get for locking a loan at 4:50 pm yesterday. I figured the market had likely priced in the news already, oops…
  18. I think you’re putting too much stock in 2022 numbers. If he was four years younger I might be more amenable on the possibility of him repeating that. I’m not a Mancini fan, I’m just pointing out that if you’re trying to upgrade and one is only going to cost you $10m and the other will cost prospects and isn’t more of a sure thing then the bar is higher.
  19. What makes you think Bagwell is anti-analytics or that Crane would be unduly influenced by a Bagwell distrustful of data and prone to superstitious belief? It appears to me that Bagwell’s game was always incorporating the data at the time; remember, he played with lots of contemporaries that had to change their game and recognize the value of walks and it seems like he was an early adopter there. I think Click is actually a little anti-saber, at least in comparison to Luhnow and I appreciate that about him. I think Luhnow’s shrinking of the scouting department was over aggressive. I also agree that a one year extension to Click is an invitation to move on.
  20. He doesn’t look like much of an upgrade over Mancini, imo. Surely we can do better.
  21. Very curious to hear what NIL talk went down between us and Hill.
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